CS2 PROP LAB
V1.0
KillsRisk
Line
32.5
Pick
UNDER
Projection
31.98
Hit
47.9%
EV+
-10.5%
Edge
-0.5
L10
50%
HeadshotsBetter playRisk
Line
12.5
Pick
UNDER
Projection
11.8
Hit
52.2%
EV+
-2.3%
Edge
-0.7
L10
50%
Junyme
AWPer
Junyme
G2 Ares vs The Last Resort
48%HIT CHANCE
RISK · UNDER 32.5
≈ L5 31.2 · L20 30.7Risk · Edge -0.5 far below ±3.0
Hit rates at 32.5 (Under)
L5
60%
3/5
L10
50%
5/10
L20
53%
10/19
H2H
50%
1/2
Volatility
Medium
±7.21
Previous meeting · vs The Last Resort
1/2 hit · avg 30.5 kills on Maps 1-2
2026-10-14 · CCT Europe 2026 Series 11
Ancient 10-13 · Inferno 13-8 · Split
22
Under 32.5 ✓
2026-09-25 · Hotspawn 10k Showdown: Closed Qualifier
Inferno 13-11 · Cache 13-8 · W
39
Over 32.5 ✗
LAN vs online form
LAN · this match
33
2/4 hit at 32.5
Online
30.1
8/15 hit at 32.5
Avg kills on Maps 1-2. The learned hit % now leans toward his form in this setting.
Late checks & sources
  • Veto confirmed — re-check map order
  • Confirm Junyme is in the starting five
  • Re-check line: PASS at 32.5
bo3.gg per-map player statsbo3.gg match scheduleWin chance: Bookmaker odds via bo3.gg
underdog · Kills · Maps 1-2Risk
What to watch · Stays under with 32 kills or fewer: below 0.782 KPR over ~42 rounds. Main danger: overtime (19.8%) or long close maps add rounds.
Side
Under
Projection
31.98
Raw edge
-0.5
Cons. hit
47.9%
EV+
-10.5%
Rating
1/10
Exp. rounds
41.5
Line
32.5
Verdict
Risk
Plain model
47.9%
+1.7 →
Learned
49.6%
learning 0.5x
Same-line track record · Under 30.5-34.5
All players · Kills
47.7%176 picks
This player
50%2 picks
Green = above the 57.7% a 2-pick needs. Graded picks only, pushes left out.
raw 56.6% → −8% haircut · cap 74% · per-leg 1.871x · threshold ±3 (pref ±4)
  • Edge -0.5 below ±3.0 minimum
  • EV+ not positive at current payout
  • L10 hit rate ≥ 60%: L10 50.0% at this line
  • L20 hit rate ≥ 55%: L20 52.6% at this line
  • Under risk — team 76% to win; favourites win more rounds and their players usually get more kills.
Sharp checks · 4/6
Big enough sample · 19 recent series (need 8+)
L10 hit rate ≥ 60% · L10 50.0% at this line
L20 hit rate ≥ 55% · L20 52.6% at this line
Game script fits · OT 20% (under 22%) · 41.5 exp. rounds (under 47) · team 76% to win (not a 55-64% favourite)
Standard line · Standard payout line
Bo3 series · Maps 1-2 guaranteed
Projection = 70% model (28.78) + 30% last-5 average
Evidence & risk

Last 10 series Maps 1-2: avg 32.2 kills vs line 32.5 (5/10 over). KPR 0.72, HS 40%. Next: vs The Last Resort, LAN.

Strongest: L10 average 32.2 against a 32.5 line

Biggest risk: Normal CS2 variance

    The read
    Signal
    PARTIAL
    The call
    PASS
    Value
    NO VALUE
    • • Model 31.98 vs line 32.5 → -0.52 (-1.6%)
    • • Form L5 60% · L10 50% under this line
    • • Heavy favourite (≥70%) → −1.4 rounds/map (learned from 11 real matches) · kill rate +6% KPR
    • • Expected 41.5 rounds · 2-0 50.4% · OT 19.8%
    Performance (last 38 maps)
    Kills/Map
    15.37
    HS/Map
    6.08
    K/D
    1.02
    KPR
    0.72
    ADR
    75.5
    KAST
    74.7%
    HS%
    39.6%
    Multi-kill
    18.3%
    Kills projection
    Map 1 (Inferno)14.4 · KPR 0.689 · 20.8r
    Map 2 (Anubis)14.4 · KPR 0.691 · 20.7r
    Required KPR to clear0.782
    Base kills (Maps 1-2)28.65
    Sweep / blowout / OT adj.+0.42%
    Final projected kills28.78
    The Last Resort gives up (40 series)+8.2% vs norm
    Likely kills totals · Maps 1-2
    Bars in colour cash the Under 32.5. Model: 56.6% before the safety haircut.
    1315171921232527293133353739414345474951535558line 32.5
    Lopsided maps24%
    ~27 kills · 35r85.1%
    Normal39.5%
    ~31 kills · 40r63.3%
    Close maps16.7%
    ~34 kills · 44r40.1%
    Overtime19.8%
    ~39 kills · 50r16.5%
    Match context
    Oct 24, 12:00 PMLANHotspawn 10k Showdown
    HLTV #105VRS #129HLTV #172VRS #142
    G2 Ares 76%24% The Last Resort
    Win chance source: Bookmaker odds via bo3.gg
    Heavy favourite (≥70%) → −1.4 rounds/map (learned from 11 real matches) · kill rate +6% KPR
    Heads upUnder risk — team 76% to win; favourites win more rounds and their players usually get more kills.
    M1 Inferno
    20.8r
    -9% KPR here
    M2 Anubis
    20.7r
    -9% KPR here
    Total
    41.5r
    2-0 sweep50.4%
    Long Map 2 (24+ rounds)36.5%
    Overtime19.8%
    Blowout (13-5 or worse)24%

    2-0 sweep is info only — Maps 1-2 are played either way.

    Veto confirmed (bo3.gg): Inferno / Anubis

    Recent Maps 1-2 form
    10 series · line 32.5 (Under) · avg 32.2 · hit 5/10 · tap a bar
    32.5
    Nearby lines
    30.5 Under41.2%below BE
    31.5 Under44.6%below BE
    32.5 Under47.9%OFFERED
    33.5 Under51%below BE
    34.5 Under54%
    Break-even per leg: 53.5%
    Becomes a PASS at: 32.5
    Line movement
    first 32.5→offno change
    1. Pulled32.5
      Oct 24, 12:12 PM
    2. First seen32.5
      Oct 23, 11:11 PM
    Map stats
    Inferno
    9 maps
    Kills
    14.1
    KPR
    0.63
    HS%
    40.2%
    K/D
    0.99
    Ancient
    9 maps
    Kills
    17.8
    KPR
    0.76
    HS%
    46.2%
    K/D
    1.13
    Cache
    8 maps
    Kills
    17.2
    KPR
    0.76
    HS%
    34.1%
    K/D
    1.16
    Dust2
    5 maps
    Kills
    10.4
    KPR
    0.51
    HS%
    28.8%
    K/D
    0.61
    Mirage
    4 maps
    Kills
    16.8
    KPR
    0.79
    HS%
    35.8%
    K/D
    1.18
    Anubis
    3 maps
    Kills
    13.3
    KPR
    0.59
    HS%
    50%
    K/D
    0.89
    Recent Maps 1-2 results
    DateOppMap 1Map 2TotalTeamPropFlags
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    2026-09-23NAVI Junior15 Mirage 6-1320 Ancient 16-1235SplitOver ✗OT
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    2026-09-20QUAZAR9 Inferno 13-713 Cache 6-1322SplitUnder ✓
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    2026-09-17BAKS23 Inferno 13-1112 Cache 9-1335SplitOver ✗
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