KillsBetter playRisk
Line
25.5
Pick
OVER
Projection
26.5
Hit
57%
EV+
-1.3%
Edge
+1.0
L10
90%
HeadshotsRisk
Line
15.5
Pick
OVER
Projection
15.95
Hit
51.1%
EV+
-11.6%
Edge
+0.5
L10
70%
Rifler
rdnzao
DENDELE vs FURIA
RISK · OVER 15.5
SAME LINE ON ALL APPSPP15.5UD15.5
≈ L5 16.0 · L20 16.6Risk · Edge +0.5 far below ±2.0 +1
Hit rates at 15.5 (Over)
L5
60%
3/5
L10
70%
7/10
L20
61%
11/18
H2H
0%
0/1
Volatility
Low
±3.88
Previous meeting · vs FURIA
0/1 hit · avg 9 headshots on Maps 1-2
2026-07-24 · BLAST Bounty Summer 2026: Closed Qualifier
Anubis 13-6 · Mirage 6-13 · Split
9
Under 15.5 ✗
LAN vs online form
LAN · this match
17.1
7/12 hit at 15.5
Online
15.7
4/6 hit at 15.5
Avg headshots on Maps 1-2. The learned hit % now leans toward his form in this setting.
Late checks & sources
- Map veto (currently estimated)
- Confirm rdnzao is in the starting five
- Re-check line: PASS at 15.5
bo3.gg per-map player statsbo3.gg match scheduleWin chance: Polymarket 18.5%
Unverified / missing: Maps 1-2 not confirmed
prizepicks · Headshots · Maps 1-2Risk
What to watch · Needs 16+ HS (~27 kills at 60.2% HS): 0.634 KPR over ~41 rounds. His Kills line is 25.5: backing Kills Over needs ~1 fewer kill, usually the easier play. Main danger: a fast 2-0 (58.1%) or blowout (26.5%) cuts rounds.
Side
Over
Projection
15.95
Raw edge
+0.5
Cons. hit
51.1%
EV+
-11.6%
Rating
1.9/10
Exp. rounds
40.6
Line
15.5
Verdict
Risk
Plain model
51.1%
0 →
Learned
51.1%
what past results change
learning 0x
learning 0x
Same-line track record · Over 13.5-17.5
All players · Headshots
56.8%435 picks
This player
100%4 picks
Green = above the 57.7% a 2-pick needs. Graded picks only, pushes left out.
raw 54.6% → −8% haircut · cap 68% · per-leg 1.732x · threshold ±2 (pref ±2.5)
- Edge +0.5 below ±2.0 minimum
- EV+ not positive at current payout
- Game script fits: team 19% to win (20%+)
- Blowout loss risk — team only 19% to win. Big underdogs often lose maps 13-3 and the Over dies (e.g. Temny Prince: 9 kills in a 3-13 map 1). Over is penalised and can't be a Take.
Sharp checks · 4/5 active
Big enough sample · 18 recent series (need 8+)
L10 hit rate ≥ 60%off · L10 70.0% at this line
L20 hit rate ≥ 55%off · L20 61.1% at this line
Game script fits · team 19% to win (20%+)
Standard line · Standard payout line
Bo3 series · Maps 1-2 guaranteed
L10 form (4/10 rule) · L10 7/10 at this line · projection 1.9 from his L10 avg
Projection = model only (the replay showed the last-5 blend didn't help)
Evidence & risk
Last 10 series Maps 1-2: avg 17.9 headshots vs line 14.0 (9/10 over). KPR 0.69, HS 60%. Next: vs FURIA, LAN.
Strongest: L10 average 17.9 against a 14.0 line
- Map veto not confirmed — Maps 1-2 estimated from recent map frequency
The read
Signal
PARTIAL
The call
PASS
Value
NO VALUE
- • Model 15.95 vs line 15.5 → +0.45 (2.9%)
- • Form L5 60% · L10 70% over this line
- • Underdog (≤40%) → −1.0 rounds/map (learned from 28 real matches) · kill rate −4% KPR
- • Expected 40.6 rounds · 2-0 58.1% · OT 11%
Performance (last 36 maps)
Kills/Map
13.81
HS/Map
8.31
K/D
0.94
KPR
0.69
ADR
78.9
KAST
72.4%
HS%
60.2%
Multi-kill
16.7%
Kills projection
Map 1 (Mirage)8 · KPR 0.624 · 21.4r
Map 2 (Cache)7.9 · KPR 0.691 · 19.2r
Required KPR to clear0.634
Base kills (Maps 1-2)26.63
Sweep / blowout / OT adj.-0.49%
Final projected kills26.5
× realistic HS% (60.2%)15.95
FURIA gives up (117 series)-8.4% vs norm
Likely HS totals · Maps 1-2
Bars in colour cash the Over 15.5. Model: 54.6% before the safety haircut.
Lopsided maps26.5%
~13 HS · 34r27.6%
Normal53.5%
~16 HS · 42r56.1%
Close maps9%
~17 HS · 43r63%
Overtime11%
~19 HS · 49r80.5%
Match context
Oct 24, 11:00 AM CTLANPGL Masters Bucharest 2026
Win chance source: Polymarket 18.5%
Underdog (≤40%) → −1.0 rounds/map (learned from 28 real matches) · kill rate −4% KPR
⚠ Blowout riskBlowout loss risk — team only 19% to win. Big underdogs often lose maps 13-3 and the Over dies (e.g. Temny Prince: 9 kills in a 3-13 map 1). Over is penalised and can't be a Take.
M1 Mirage
21.4r
-6% KPR here
M2 Cache
19.2r
+4% KPR here
Total
40.6r
2-0 sweep58.1%
Long Map 2 (24+ rounds)20%
Overtime11%
Blowout (13-5 or worse)26.5%
2-0 sweep is info only — Maps 1-2 are played either way.
Likely maps from his team's recent map frequency: Mirage / Cache
Recent Maps 1-2 form
10 series · line 15.5 (Over) · avg 17.9 · hit 7/10 · tap a bar
15.5
Nearby lines
| 13.5 Over | 62.9% | |
| 14.5 Over | 59.7% | |
| 15.5 Over | 51.1% | OFFERED |
| 16.5 Over | 43% | below BE |
| 17.5 Over | 33.2% | below BE |
Break-even per leg: 57.7%
Becomes a PASS at: 15.5
Line movement
first 14→15.5+1.5
- Back on board15.5 → 15.5Oct 24, 05:16 PM
- Pulled15.5Oct 24, 05:15 PM
- Back on board14 → 15.5Oct 24, 05:15 PM
- Pulled14Oct 24, 11:10 AM
- First seen14Oct 23, 07:00 PM
Map stats
Mirage
10 maps
Kills
14.4
KPR
0.63
HS%
58.3%
K/D
0.95
Cache
9 maps
Kills
14.3
KPR
0.72
HS%
67.4%
K/D
1
Nuke
5 maps
Kills
11.2
KPR
0.61
HS%
51.8%
K/D
0.88
Inferno
4 maps
Kills
16.2
KPR
0.67
HS%
56.9%
K/D
0.93
Ancient
4 maps
Kills
12.5
KPR
0.53
HS%
54%
K/D
0.74
Anubis
4 maps
Kills
13.2
KPR
0.66
HS%
66%
K/D
1.13
Recent Maps 1-2 results
| Date | Opp | Map 1 | Map 2 | Total | Team | Prop | Flags |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-10-11 | Wildcard | 9 Mirage 13-4 | 6 Nuke 8-13 | 15 | Split | Under ✗ | BO |
| 2026-10-11 | Imperial | 9 Mirage 13-8 | 12 Inferno 13-11 | 21 | W | Over ✓ | |
| 2026-10-10 | Wildcard | 8 Mirage 13-16 | 9 Cache 3-13 | 17 | L | Over ✓ | OTBO |
| 2026-09-27 | M80 | 4 Inferno 13-7 | 12 Anubis 9-13 | 16 | Split | Over ✓ | |
| 2026-09-26 | Wildcard | 6 Mirage 13-11 | 5 Nuke 10-13 | 11 | Split | Under ✗ | |
| 2026-09-26 | M80 | 11 Mirage 13-9 | 9 Ancient 16-13 | 20 | W | Over ✓ | OT |
| 2026-09-25 | Voca | 3 Ancient 13-7 | 12 Cache 13-7 | 15 | W | Under ✗ | |
| 2026-09-02 | Color | 10 Mirage 8-13 | 12 Cache 13-6 | 22 | Split | Over ✓ | |
| 2026-09-02 | EYEBALLERS | 8 Ancient 11-13 | 9 Cache 13-3 | 17 | Split | Over ✓ | BO |
| 2026-08-28 | Aurora | 10 Cache 7-13 | 15 Mirage 12-16 | 25 | L | Over ✓ | OT |
| 2026-08-26 | Spirit | 7 Ancient 8-13 | 4 Cache 7-13 | 11 | L | Under ✗ | |
| 2026-08-09 | JiJieHao | 12 Inferno 14-16 | 10 Cache 13-9 | 22 | Split | Over ✓ | OT |
| 2026-08-07 | SAW | 9 Inferno 13-10 | 8 Anubis 13-10 | 17 | W | Over ✓ | |
| 2026-08-07 | QueenConso | 6 Nuke 13-0 | 9 Anubis 13-3 | 15 | W | Under ✗ | BO |
| 2026-07-25 | FaZe | 3 Nuke 2-13 | 9 Mirage 13-10 | 12 | Split | Under ✗ | BO |
| 2026-07-24 | FURIA | 6 Anubis 13-6 | 3 Mirage 6-13 | 9 | Split | Under ✗ | |
| 2026-07-11 | paiN | 9 Cache 13-11 | 9 Nuke 13-7 | 18 | W | Over ✓ | |
| 2026-07-10 | BESTIA | 4 Mirage 10-13 | 12 Cache 13-8 | 16 | Split | Over ✓ |
