KillsRisk
Line
32
Pick
UNDER
Projection
31.32
Hit
44.1%
EV+
-23.6%
Edge
-0.7
L10
50%
HeadshotsBetter playRisk
Line
21.5
Pick
UNDER
Projection
21.04
Hit
48.9%
EV+
-15.3%
Edge
-0.5
L10
60%
Rifler
Dem0N
FUT vs TYLOO
RISK · UNDER 21.5
BEST UNDER · PP 21.5PP21.5UD20.5
▲ L5 22.4 · L20 20.5Risk · Recent form (L5/L10) leans the other way +1
Hit rates at 21.5 (Under)
L5
60%
3/5
L10
60%
6/10
L20
68%
13/19
H2H
100%
1/1
Volatility
Medium
±5.12
Previous meeting · vs TYLOO
1/1 hit · avg 17 headshots on Maps 1-2
2026-10-24 · PGL Masters Bucharest 2026
Nuke 13-9 · Ancient 13-6 · W
17
Under 21.5 ✓
LAN vs online form
LAN
20.6
11/17 hit at 21.5
Online · this match
19
2/2 hit at 21.5
Avg headshots on Maps 1-2. The learned hit % now leans toward his form in this setting.
Late checks & sources
- Map veto (currently estimated)
- Confirm dem0n is in the starting five
- Re-check line: PASS at 21.5
bo3.gg per-map player statsbo3.gg match schedule
Unverified / missing: Maps 1-2 not confirmed
prizepicks · Headshots · Maps 1-2Risk
What to watch · Stays under with 21 HS or fewer (under ~33 kills at 67.2% HS): below 0.739 KPR over ~43 rounds. Main danger: overtime (7.8%) or long close maps add rounds.
Side
Under
Projection
21.04
Raw edge
-0.5
Cons. hit
48.9%
EV+
-15.3%
Rating
1/10
Exp. rounds
43.3
Line
21.5
Verdict
Risk
Plain model
48.9%
0 →
Learned
48.9%
what past results change
learning 0x
learning 0x
Same-line track record · Under 19.5-23.5
All players · Headshots
55.6%45 picks
This player
50%2 picks
Green = above the 57.7% a 2-pick needs. Graded picks only, pushes left out.
raw 53.5% → −8% haircut · cap 68% · per-leg 1.732x · threshold ±2 (pref ±2.5)
- Edge -0.5 below ±2.0 minimum
- Recent form (L5/L10) does not lean the same way
- EV+ not positive at current payout
Sharp checks · 5/5 active
Big enough sample · 19 recent series (need 8+)
L10 hit rate ≥ 60%off · L10 60.0% at this line
L20 hit rate ≥ 55%off · L20 68.4% at this line
Game script fits · OT 8% (under 22%) · 43.3 exp. rounds (under 47)
Standard line · Standard payout line
Bo3 series · Maps 1-2 guaranteed
L10 form (4/10 rule) · L10 6/10 at this line · projection 1.5 from his L10 avg
Projection = model only (the replay showed the last-5 blend didn't help)
Evidence & risk
Last 10 series Maps 1-2: avg 22.5 headshots vs line 20.0 (6/10 over). KPR 0.75, HS 67%. Next: vs TYLOO, LAN/Online unknown.
Strongest: L10 average 22.5 against a 20.0 line
Biggest risk: Map veto not confirmed — Maps 1-2 estimated from recent map frequency
- Map veto not confirmed — Maps 1-2 estimated from recent map frequency
The read
Signal
MIXED
The call
PASS
Value
NO VALUE
- • Model 21.04 vs line 21.5 → -0.46 (-2.1%)
- • Form L5 60% · L10 60% under this line
- • Win chance unknown — no favourite adjustment
- • Expected 43.3 rounds · 2-0 48.4% · OT 7.8%
Performance (last 40 maps)
Kills/Map
14.78
HS/Map
9.93
K/D
1.06
KPR
0.75
ADR
78.1
KAST
79.2%
HS%
67.2%
Multi-kill
16.8%
Kills projection
Map 1 (Ancient)10.5 · KPR 0.756 · 20.8r
Map 2 (Dust2)10.5 · KPR 0.698 · 22.5r
Required KPR to clear0.739
Base kills (Maps 1-2)31.43
Sweep / blowout / OT adj.-0.36%
Final projected kills31.32
× realistic HS% (67.2%)21.04
TYLOO gives up (35 series)-5.7% vs norm
Likely HS totals · Maps 1-2
Bars in colour cash the Under 21.5. Model: 53.5% before the safety haircut.
Lopsided maps17.8%
~18 HS · 36r81.4%
Normal58.7%
~21 HS · 43r55%
Close maps15.7%
~23 HS · 46r43.2%
Overtime7.8%
~25 HS · 52r22.9%
Match context
Oct 24, 2:00 AM CTOnline
Win chance source: —
Win chance unknown — no favourite adjustment
M1 Ancient
20.8r
+1% KPR here
M2 Dust2
22.5r
-7% KPR here
Total
43.3r
2-0 sweep48.4%
Long Map 2 (24+ rounds)23.5%
Overtime7.8%
Blowout (13-5 or worse)17.8%
2-0 sweep is info only — Maps 1-2 are played either way.
Likely maps from his team's recent map frequency: Ancient / Dust2
Recent Maps 1-2 form
10 series · line 21.5 (Under) · avg 22.5 · hit 6/10 · tap a bar
21.5
Nearby lines
| 19.5 Under | 35.7% | below BE |
| 20.5 Under | 40.3% | below BE |
| 21.5 Under | 48.9% | OFFERED |
| 22.5 Under | 55.3% | below BE |
| 23.5 Under | 58.9% |
Break-even per leg: 57.7%
Becomes a PASS at: 21.5
Line movement
first 20→21.5+1.5
- Back on board20 → 21.5Oct 24, 04:06 PM
- Pulled20Oct 24, 02:00 AM
- First seen20Oct 23, 07:00 PM
Map stats
Ancient
11 maps
Kills
15.5
KPR
0.76
HS%
69%
K/D
1.12
Dust2
8 maps
Kills
15.5
KPR
0.68
HS%
68.5%
K/D
0.95
Anubis
6 maps
Kills
15.5
KPR
0.73
HS%
67.7%
K/D
1.12
Nuke
6 maps
Kills
15.3
KPR
0.7
HS%
63%
K/D
1.24
Overpass
5 maps
Kills
10
KPR
0.59
HS%
62%
K/D
0.79
Mirage
3 maps
Kills
16
KPR
0.75
HS%
72.9%
K/D
1.23
Cache
1 maps
Kills
13
KPR
0.57
HS%
53.8%
K/D
0.93
Recent Maps 1-2 results
| Date | Opp | Map 1 | Map 2 | Total | Team | Prop | Flags |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-10-24 | TYLOO | 11 Nuke 13-9 | 6 Ancient 13-6 | 17 | W | Under ✓ | |
| 2026-08-31 | Vitality | 8 Anubis 7-13 | 11 Dust2 8-13 | 19 | L | Under ✓ | |
| 2026-08-30 | Inner Circle | 16 Mirage 13-9 | 16 Nuke 13-6 | 32 | W | Over ✗ | |
| 2026-08-29 | Lynn Vision | 10 Dust2 10-13 | 8 Anubis 13-3 | 18 | Split | Under ✓ | BO |
| 2026-08-27 | Legacy | 12 Ancient 10-13 | 14 Dust2 11-13 | 26 | L | Over ✗ | |
| 2026-08-23 | Spirit | 7 Cache 13-10 | 15 Anubis 13-16 | 22 | Split | Over ✗ | OT |
| 2026-08-22 | FURIA | 11 Ancient 13-11 | 7 Nuke 6-13 | 18 | Split | Under ✓ | |
| 2026-08-21 | MOUZ | 13 Dust2 16-13 | 8 Ancient 13-5 | 21 | W | Under ✓ | OTBO |
| 2026-08-19 | magic | 20 Ancient 9-13 | 11 Anubis 13-7 | 31 | Split | Over ✗ | |
| 2026-08-14 | MOUZ | 10 Ancient 13-6 | 11 Nuke 12-16 | 21 | Split | Under ✓ | OT |
| 2026-07-26 | 3DMAX | 13 Dust2 11-13 | 5 Ancient 9-13 | 18 | L | Under ✓ | |
| 2026-07-23 | SINNERS | 6 Dust2 6-13 | 14 Ancient 13-3 | 20 | Split | Under ✓ | BO |
| 2026-06-15 | BetBoom | 6 Mirage 7-13 | 6 Dust2 7-13 | 12 | L | Under ✓ | |
| 2026-06-14 | MOUZ | 11 Ancient 13-11 | 7 Nuke 10-13 | 18 | Split | Under ✓ | |
| 2026-06-13 | B8 | 12 Dust2 10-13 | 13 Mirage 13-9 | 25 | Split | Over ✗ | |
| 2026-06-12 | G2 | 6 Overpass 5-13 | 10 Ancient 13-6 | 16 | Split | Under ✓ | BO |
| 2026-06-11 | Vitality | 10 Anubis 13-5 | 1 Overpass 2-13 | 11 | Split | Under ✓ | BO |
| 2026-06-07 | G2 | 11 Anubis 13-11 | 10 Overpass 7-13 | 21 | Split | Under ✓ | |
| 2026-05-13 | B8 | 11 Ancient 7-13 | 12 Overpass 11-13 | 23 | L | Over ✗ |
