KillsLean
Line
25.5
Pick
OVER
Projection
28.53
Hit
57.4%
EV+
+7.4%
Edge
+3.0
L10
40%
HeadshotsLean
Line
14.5
Pick
OVER
Projection
16.39
Hit
57.4%
EV+
+7.5%
Edge
+1.9
L10
60%
Rifler
luchov
9z Team vs Team Vitality
LEAN · OVER 14.5
SAME LINE ON ALL APPSPP14.5UD14.5
≈ L5 16.8 · L20 17.1
Hit rates at 14.5 (Over)
L5
60%
3/5
L10
60%
6/10
L20
75%
15/20
H2H
0%
0/1
Volatility
High
±6.79
Previous meeting · vs Team Vitality
0/1 hit · avg 9 headshots on Maps 1-2
2026-08-29 · BLAST Open Fall 2026
Dust2 2-13 · Nuke 6-13 · L
9
Under 14.5 ✗
LAN vs online form
LAN · this match
17.1
15/20 hit at 14.5
Online
—
no series
Avg headshots on Maps 1-2. The learned hit % now leans toward his form in this setting.
Late checks & sources
- Map veto (currently estimated)
- Confirm luchov is in the starting five
- Re-check line: PASS at 14.5
bo3.gg per-map player statsbo3.gg match scheduleWin chance: Polymarket 14.5%
Unverified / missing: Maps 1-2 not confirmed
underdog · Headshots · Maps 1-2Lean
What to watch · Needs 15+ HS (~25 kills at 60.2% HS): 0.595 KPR over ~41 rounds. Main danger: a fast 2-0 (65.4%) or blowout (32.9%) cuts rounds.
Side
Over
Projection
16.39
Raw edge
+1.9
Cons. hit
57.4%
EV+
+7.5%
Rating
3.7/10
Exp. rounds
40.5
Line
14.5
Verdict
Lean
Plain model
57.4%
0 →
Learned
57.4%
what past results change
learning 0x
learning 0x
Same-line track record · Over 12.5-16.5
All players · Headshots
59.2%343 picks
This player
100%2 picks
Green = above the 57.7% a 2-pick needs. Graded picks only, pushes left out.
raw 61.7% → −8% haircut · cap 74% · per-leg 1.871x · threshold ±2 (pref ±2.5)
- Edge +1.9 below ±2.0 minimum
- High form volatility
- Game script fits: team 14% to win (20%+)
- Blowout loss risk — team only 14% to win. Big underdogs often lose maps 13-3 and the Over dies (e.g. Temny Prince: 9 kills in a 3-13 map 1). Over is penalised and can't be a Take.
Sharp checks · 5/6
Big enough sample · 20 recent series (need 8+)
L10 hit rate ≥ 60% · L10 60.0% at this line · gate off (replay: didn't help)
L20 hit rate ≥ 55% · L20 75.0% at this line · gate off (replay: didn't help)
Game script fits · team 14% to win (20%+)
Standard line · Standard payout line
Bo3 series · Maps 1-2 guaranteed
Projection = model only (the replay showed the last-5 blend didn't help)
Evidence & risk
Last 10 series Maps 1-2: avg 16.2 headshots vs line 15.5 (6/10 over). KPR 0.67, HS 60%. Next: vs Vitality, LAN.
Strongest: L10 average 16.2 against a 15.5 line
- Map veto not confirmed — Maps 1-2 estimated from recent map frequency
The read
Signal
PARTIAL
The call
PASS
Value
THIN
- • Model 16.39 vs line 14.5 → +1.89 (13.0%)
- • Form L5 60% · L10 60% over this line
- • Underdog (≤40%) → −1.0 rounds/map (learned from 17 real matches) · kill rate −6% KPR
- • Expected 40.5 rounds · 2-0 65.4% · OT 12.2%
Performance (last 40 maps)
Kills/Map
14.15
HS/Map
8.53
K/D
0.93
KPR
0.67
ADR
75.9
KAST
70.5%
HS%
60.2%
Multi-kill
17%
Kills projection
Map 1 (Nuke)7.5 · KPR 0.651 · 19.4r
Map 2 (Mirage)8.3 · KPR 0.662 · 21.1r
Required KPR to clear0.595
Base kills (Maps 1-2)26.59
Sweep / blowout / OT adj.-1.01%
Final projected kills26.32
× realistic HS% (60.2%)16.39
Team Vitality gives up (100 series)-6.3% vs norm
Likely HS totals · Maps 1-2
Bars in colour cash the Over 14.5. Model: 61.7% before the safety haircut.
Lopsided maps32.9%
~14 HS · 34r40.6%
Normal44.6%
~17 HS · 42r61.8%
Close maps10.3%
~18 HS · 43r64.5%
Overtime12.2%
~20 HS · 49r76.7%
Match context
Oct 24, 01:00 PMLANPGL Masters Bucharest 2026
Win chance source: Polymarket 14.5%
Underdog (≤40%) → −1.0 rounds/map (learned from 17 real matches) · kill rate −6% KPR
⚠ Blowout riskBlowout loss risk — team only 14% to win. Big underdogs often lose maps 13-3 and the Over dies (e.g. Temny Prince: 9 kills in a 3-13 map 1). Over is penalised and can't be a Take.
M1 Nuke
19.4r
+4% KPR here
M2 Mirage
21.1r
+6% KPR here
Total
40.5r
2-0 sweep65.4%
Long Map 2 (24+ rounds)22.5%
Overtime12.2%
Blowout (13-5 or worse)32.9%
2-0 sweep is info only — Maps 1-2 are played either way.
Likely maps from his team's recent map frequency: Nuke / Mirage
Recent Maps 1-2 form
10 series · line 14.5 (Over) · avg 16.2 · hit 6/10 · tap a bar
14.5
Nearby lines
| 12.5 Over | 66.4% | |
| 13.5 Over | 62.7% | |
| 14.5 Over | 57.4% | OFFERED |
| 15.5 Over | 51.1% | below BE |
| 16.5 Over | 44.7% | below BE |
Break-even per leg: 53.5%
Becomes a PASS at: 14.5
Line movement
first 15.5→14.5-1
- Moved down15.5 → 14.5Oct 23, 02:48 PM
- First seen15.5Oct 23, 12:41 PM
Map stats
Nuke
12 maps
Kills
14.2
KPR
0.7
HS%
64.1%
K/D
0.98
Mirage
9 maps
Kills
16.1
KPR
0.72
HS%
59.3%
K/D
1.08
Dust2
7 maps
Kills
11.7
KPR
0.55
HS%
56.1%
K/D
0.73
Inferno
6 maps
Kills
13.8
KPR
0.61
HS%
56.6%
K/D
0.86
Cache
4 maps
Kills
13.2
KPR
0.7
HS%
69.8%
K/D
1.04
Ancient
2 maps
Kills
16.5
KPR
0.58
HS%
48.5%
K/D
0.8
Recent Maps 1-2 results
| Date | Opp | Map 1 | Map 2 | Total | Team | Prop | Flags |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-10-16 | Aurora | 9 Cache 11-13 | 1 Inferno 4-13 | 10 | L | Under ✗ | BO |
| 2026-10-15 | Falcons | 11 Nuke 9-13 | 11 Mirage 13-8 | 22 | Split | Over ✓ | |
| 2026-10-14 | Aurora | 14 Inferno 13-11 | 12 Nuke 13-1 | 26 | W | Over ✓ | BO |
| 2026-10-07 | FURIA | 6 Nuke 7-13 | 0 Inferno 3-13 | 6 | L | Under ✗ | BO |
| 2026-10-06 | BetBoom | 8 Dust2 13-8 | 12 Mirage 13-9 | 20 | W | Over ✓ | |
| 2026-10-05 | Natus Vincere | 7 Nuke 6-13 | 11 Cache 6-13 | 18 | L | Over ✓ | |
| 2026-10-04 | TYLOO | 14 Nuke 13-10 | 11 Mirage 13-2 | 25 | W | Over ✓ | BO |
| 2026-10-03 | Aurora | 3 Dust2 3-13 | 13 Mirage 11-13 | 16 | L | Over ✓ | BO |
| 2026-09-10 | G2 | 6 Dust2 13-11 | 2 Ancient 8-13 | 8 | Split | Under ✗ | |
| 2026-09-09 | MIBR | 4 Mirage 6-13 | 7 Nuke 7-13 | 11 | L | Under ✗ | |
| 2026-09-08 | 5star | 10 Cache 13-3 | 6 Nuke 13-4 | 16 | W | Over ✓ | BO |
| 2026-08-29 | Vitality | 3 Dust2 2-13 | 6 Nuke 6-13 | 9 | L | Under ✗ | BO |
| 2026-08-27 | MOUZ | 7 Cache 4-13 | 9 Nuke 7-13 | 16 | L | Over ✓ | BO |
| 2026-08-16 | magic | 14 Ancient 17-19 | 9 Dust2 13-10 | 23 | Split | Over ✓ | OT |
| 2026-08-15 | FURIA | 7 Dust2 6-13 | 9 Mirage 16-13 | 16 | Split | Over ✓ | OT |
| 2026-07-12 | PARIVISION | 13 Mirage 13-9 | 6 Inferno 13-10 | 19 | W | Over ✓ | |
| 2026-07-11 | Alliance | 13 Nuke 13-10 | 15 Inferno 17-19 | 28 | Split | Over ✓ | OT |
| 2026-07-09 | TYLOO | 12 Nuke 13-9 | 4 Mirage 7-13 | 16 | Split | Over ✓ | |
| 2026-07-05 | MIBR | 6 Nuke 13-10 | 9 Mirage 16-13 | 15 | W | Over ✓ | OT |
| 2026-07-04 | Alliance | 10 Dust2 14-16 | 11 Inferno 7-13 | 21 | L | Over ✓ | OT |
