KillsBetter playRisk
Line
32.5
Pick
OVER
Projection
39
Hit
68.8%
EV+
+19.1%
Edge
+6.5
L10
60%
HeadshotsRisk
Line
18
Pick
OVER
Projection
20.91
Hit
64.3%
EV+
+11.3%
Edge
+2.9
L10
30%
Rifler
xerolte
NEXVOID vs Alter Ego
RISK · OVER 32.5
BEST OVER · SL 30.5PP32.5UD31.5SL30.5
▼ L5 31.8 · L20 34.0Risk · Recent form (L5/L10) leans the other way
Hit rates at 32.5 (Over)
L5
60%
3/5
L10
60%
6/10
L20
60%
12/20
H2H
N/A
Volatility
Low
±6.17
Previous meeting · vs Alter Ego
No meeting with Alter Ego in his last 20 series.
LAN vs online form
LAN · this match
32.6
8/12 hit at 32.5
Online
36.3
4/8 hit at 32.5
Avg kills on Maps 1-2. The learned hit % now leans toward his form in this setting.
Late checks & sources
- Map veto (currently estimated)
- Confirm xerolte is in the starting five
- Re-check line: PASS at 36.5
bo3.gg per-map player statsbo3.gg match scheduleWin chance: Bookmaker odds via bo3.gg
Unverified / missing: Maps 1-2 not confirmed
prizepicks · Kills · Maps 1-2Risk
What to watch · Needs 33+ kills: 0.725 KPR over ~45 rounds. Main danger: a fast 2-0 (54.1%) or blowout (26.7%) cuts rounds.
Side
Over
Projection
39
Raw edge
+6.5
Cons. hit
68.8%
EV+
+19.1%
Rating
5.5/10
Exp. rounds
44.8
Line
32.5
Verdict
Risk
Plain model
68.8%
-3.2 →
Learned
65.6%
what past results change
learning 0x
learning 0x
Same-line track record · Over 30.5-34.5
All players · Kills
52.3%176 picks
This player
—0 picks
Green = above the 57.7% a 2-pick needs. Graded picks only, pushes left out.
raw 77.3% → −8% haircut · cap 74% · per-leg 1.732x · threshold ±3 (pref ±4)
- Recent form (L5/L10) does not lean the same way
Sharp checks · 6/6
Big enough sample · 20 recent series (need 8+)
L10 hit rate ≥ 60% · L10 60.0% at this line · gate off (replay: didn't help)
L20 hit rate ≥ 55% · L20 60.0% at this line · gate off (replay: didn't help)
Game script fits · 44.8 exp. rounds (need 38+) · blowout 27% (under 40%) · team 57% to win (20%+)
Standard line · Standard payout line
Bo3 series · Maps 1-2 guaranteed
Projection = model only (the replay showed the last-5 blend didn't help)
Evidence & risk
Last 10 series Maps 1-2: avg 31.6 kills vs line 32.5 (6/10 over). KPR 0.74, HS 56%. Next: vs Alter Ego, LAN.
Strongest: L10 average 31.6 against a 32.5 line
Biggest risk: Map veto not confirmed — Maps 1-2 estimated from recent map frequency
- Map veto not confirmed — Maps 1-2 estimated from recent map frequency
The read
Signal
MIXED
The call
PASS
Value
VALUE
- • Model 39 vs line 32.5 → +6.5 (20.0%)
- • Form L5 60% · L10 60% over this line
- • Close match (45–65%) → +1.0 rounds/map (learned from 21 real matches)
- • Expected 44.8 rounds · 2-0 54.1% · OT 12.2%
Performance (last 40 maps)
Kills/Map
17.02
HS/Map
9.57
K/D
1.15
KPR
0.74
ADR
82
KAST
71.8%
HS%
56.2%
Multi-kill
18.6%
Kills projection
Map 1 (Ancient)18.3 · KPR 0.77 · 23.9r
Map 2 (Inferno)17.7 · KPR 0.85 · 20.9r
Required KPR to clear0.725
Base kills (Maps 1-2)36.17
Sweep / blowout / OT adj.-0.52%
Final projected kills35.98
Alter Ego gives up (5 series)-3.6% vs norm
Likely kills totals · Maps 1-2
Bars in colour cash the Over 32.5. Model: 77.3% before the safety haircut.
Lopsided maps26.7%
~33 kills · 38r50.5%
Normal50.8%
~40 kills · 46r87.3%
Close maps10.3%
~42 kills · 48r92.3%
Overtime12.2%
~47 kills · 54r98.5%
Match context
Oct 26, 03:00 AMLANDFRAG Invitational 2026
Win chance source: Bookmaker odds via bo3.gg
Close match (45–65%) → +1.0 rounds/map (learned from 21 real matches)
Game scriptIdeal Over range — team 57% to win (40-70%), competitive maps expected.
M1 Ancient
23.9r
+3% KPR here
M2 Inferno
20.9r
+14% KPR here
Total
44.8r
2-0 sweep54.1%
Long Map 2 (24+ rounds)22.5%
Overtime12.2%
Blowout (13-5 or worse)26.7%
2-0 sweep is info only — Maps 1-2 are played either way.
Likely maps from his team's recent map frequency: Ancient / Inferno
Recent Maps 1-2 form
10 series · line 32.5 (Over) · avg 31.6 · hit 6/10 · tap a bar
32.5
Nearby lines
| 30.5 Over | 70.7% | |
| 31.5 Over | 69.9% | |
| 32.5 Over | 68.8% | OFFERED |
| 33.5 Over | 67.3% | |
| 34.5 Over | 65.3% |
Break-even per leg: 57.7%
Becomes a PASS at: 36.5
Line movement
first 32.5→32.5no change
- First seen32.5Oct 25, 12:00 AM
Map stats
Inferno
11 maps
Kills
17.1
KPR
0.88
HS%
53.7%
K/D
1.39
Ancient
11 maps
Kills
18.1
KPR
0.78
HS%
57.8%
K/D
1.21
Dust2
9 maps
Kills
14.8
KPR
0.69
HS%
62.4%
K/D
0.95
Nuke
5 maps
Kills
19.2
KPR
0.74
HS%
55.2%
K/D
1.07
Cache
3 maps
Kills
16
KPR
0.76
HS%
39.6%
K/D
1.12
Anubis
1 maps
Kills
17
KPR
0.77
HS%
70.6%
K/D
1
Recent Maps 1-2 results
| Date | Opp | Map 1 | Map 2 | Total | Team | Prop | Flags |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-10-23 | Rare Atom | 20 Dust2 10-13 | 19 Ancient 11-13 | 39 | L | Over ✓ | |
| 2026-10-22 | Morningstar | 11 Dust2 13-6 | 26 Ancient 13-7 | 37 | W | Over ✓ | |
| 2026-10-21 | Chinggis Warriors | 6 Inferno 1-13 | 23 Cache 13-10 | 29 | Split | Under ✗ | BO |
| 2026-10-20 | Vitalem Aerem | 17 Dust2 5-13 | 18 Inferno 13-10 | 35 | Split | Over ✓ | BO |
| 2026-10-18 | FlyQuest | 10 Ancient 13-7 | 9 Dust2 6-13 | 19 | Split | Under ✗ | |
| 2026-10-18 | Off Chops | 17 Dust2 19-17 | 21 Inferno 13-9 | 38 | W | Over ✓ | OT |
| 2026-10-17 | FlyQuest | 24 Ancient 16-14 | 4 Dust2 2-13 | 28 | Split | Under ✗ | OTBO |
| 2026-10-15 | Rooster | 17 Anubis 13-9 | 16 Inferno 13-4 | 33 | W | Over ✓ | BO |
| 2026-10-15 | Mindfreak | 16 Cache 13-7 | 18 Inferno 13-5 | 34 | W | Over ✓ | BO |
| 2026-10-11 | Chinggis Warriors | 17 Nuke 13-9 | 7 Ancient 7-13 | 24 | Split | Under ✗ | |
| 2026-10-10 | 5star | 14 Ancient 13-5 | 25 Inferno 12-16 | 39 | Split | Over ✓ | OTBO |
| 2026-10-08 | The Huns | 19 Ancient 13-10 | 17 Inferno 13-5 | 36 | W | Over ✓ | BO |
| 2026-09-29 | Lynn Vision | 10 Ancient 11-13 | 14 Nuke 13-11 | 24 | Split | Under ✗ | |
| 2026-09-28 | The Huns | 41 Nuke 22-20 | 27 Ancient 13-11 | 68 | W | Over ✓ | OT |
| 2026-09-27 | Lynn Vision | 31 Ancient 14-16 | 10 Nuke 5-13 | 41 | L | Over ✓ | OTBO |
| 2026-09-25 | Legion | 18 Dust2 13-6 | 21 Inferno 13-7 | 39 | W | Over ✓ | |
| 2026-09-23 | Just Swing | 9 Cache 7-13 | 15 Inferno 13-4 | 24 | Split | Under ✗ | BO |
| 2026-09-22 | bLight blue | 22 Dust2 13-11 | 18 Inferno 13-3 | 40 | W | Over ✓ | BO |
| 2026-09-03 | Chinggis Warriors | 14 Nuke 11-13 | 12 Ancient 10-13 | 26 | L | Under ✗ | |
| 2026-09-02 | Lynn Vision | 13 Inferno 8-13 | 15 Dust2 7-13 | 28 | L | Under ✗ |
