KillsBetter playTake
Line
23.5
Pick
OVER
Projection
28.85
Hit
65.4%
EV+
+13.2%
Edge
+5.3
L10
70%
HeadshotsTake
Line
14
Pick
OVER
Projection
16.93
Hit
63.2%
EV+
+9.4%
Edge
+2.9
L10
60%
Rifler
cobrazera
The MongolZ vs Aurora
TAKE · OVER 23.5
BEST OVER · PP 23.5PP23.5UD25.5
▼ L5 28.4 · L20 30.1
Hit rates at 23.5 (Over)
L5
60%
3/5
L10
70%
7/10
L20
80%
16/20
H2H
100%
2/2
Volatility
Low
±5.98
Previous meeting · vs Aurora
2/2 hit · avg 29.5 kills on Maps 1-2
2026-10-24 · PGL Masters Bucharest 2026
Inferno 12-16 · Nuke 13-2 · Split
33
Over 23.5 ✓
2026-05-13 · PGL Astana 2026
Overpass 11-13 · Mirage 10-13 · L
26
Over 23.5 ✓
LAN vs online form
LAN
30.1
16/20 hit at 23.5
Online · this match
—
no series
Avg kills on Maps 1-2. The learned hit % now leans toward his form in this setting.
Late checks & sources
- Map veto (currently estimated)
- Confirm cobrazera is in the starting five
- Re-check line: PASS at 26
bo3.gg per-map player statsbo3.gg match schedule
Unverified / missing: Maps 1-2 not confirmed
prizepicks · Kills · Maps 1-2Take
What to watch · Needs 24+ kills: 0.534 KPR over ~44 rounds. Main danger: a fast 2-0 (50.3%) or blowout (17.8%) cuts rounds.
Side
Over
Projection
28.85
Raw edge
+5.3
Cons. hit
65.4%
EV+
+13.2%
Rating
9.5/10
Exp. rounds
44
Line
23.5
Verdict
Take
Plain model
65.4%
0 →
Learned
65.4%
what past results change
learning 0x
learning 0x
Same-line track record · Over 21.5-25.5
All players · Kills
57.6%158 picks
This player
0%1 picks
Green = above the 57.7% a 2-pick needs. Graded picks only, pushes left out.
raw 81.4% → −8% haircut · cap 68% · per-leg 1.732x · threshold ±3 (pref ±4)
Clears edge, form, EV+, volatility and every sharp check
Sharp checks · 5/5 active
Big enough sample · 20 recent series (need 8+)
L10 hit rate ≥ 60%off · L10 70.0% at this line
L20 hit rate ≥ 55%off · L20 80.0% at this line
Game script fits · 44.0 exp. rounds (need 38+) · blowout 18% (under 40%)
Standard line · Standard payout line
Bo3 series · Maps 1-2 guaranteed
L10 form (4/10 rule) · L10 7/10 at this line · projection 0.4 from his L10 avg
Projection = model only (the replay showed the last-5 blend didn't help)
Evidence & risk
Last 10 series Maps 1-2: avg 29.2 kills vs line 28.5 (5/10 over). KPR 0.70, HS 59%. Next: vs Aurora, LAN/Online unknown.
Strongest: L10 average 29.2 against a 28.5 line
Biggest risk: Map veto not confirmed — Maps 1-2 estimated from recent map frequency
- Map veto not confirmed — Maps 1-2 estimated from recent map frequency
The read
Signal
ALIGNED
The call
TAKE OVER
Value
VALUE
- • Model 28.85 vs line 23.5 → +5.35 (22.8%)
- • Form L5 60% · L10 70% over this line
- • Win chance unknown — no favourite adjustment
- • Expected 44 rounds · 2-0 50.3% · OT 7.8%
Performance (last 40 maps)
Kills/Map
15.03
HS/Map
8.82
K/D
1.07
KPR
0.7
ADR
76.4
KAST
71.5%
HS%
58.7%
Multi-kill
17.3%
Kills projection
Map 1 (Inferno)15.1 · KPR 0.699 · 21.7r
Map 2 (Mirage)13.7 · KPR 0.618 · 22.3r
Required KPR to clear0.534
Base kills (Maps 1-2)28.95
Sweep / blowout / OT adj.-0.35%
Final projected kills28.85
Aurora gives up (91 series)-1.7% vs norm
Likely kills totals · Maps 1-2
Bars in colour cash the Over 23.5. Model: 81.4% before the safety haircut.
Lopsided maps17.8%
~24 kills · 37r54.4%
Normal47.2%
~28 kills · 43r81.6%
Close maps27.2%
~31 kills · 47r90.7%
Overtime7.8%
~35 kills · 53r97.5%
Match context
Oct 24, 2:00 AM CTOnline
Win chance source: —
Win chance unknown — no favourite adjustment
M1 Inferno
21.7r
-1% KPR here
M2 Mirage
22.3r
-12% KPR here
Total
44r
2-0 sweep50.3%
Long Map 2 (24+ rounds)35%
Overtime7.8%
Blowout (13-5 or worse)17.8%
2-0 sweep is info only — Maps 1-2 are played either way.
Likely maps from his team's recent map frequency: Inferno / Mirage
Recent Maps 1-2 form
10 series · line 23.5 (Over) · avg 29.2 · hit 7/10 · tap a bar
23.5
Nearby lines
| 21.5 Over | 67.1% | |
| 22.5 Over | 66% | |
| 23.5 Over | 65.4% | OFFERED |
| 24.5 Over | 64.5% | |
| 25.5 Over | 63.2% |
Break-even per leg: 57.7%
Becomes a PASS at: 26
Line movement
first 28.5→23.5-5
- Back on board27.5 → 23.5Oct 24, 04:06 PM
- Pulled27.5Oct 24, 02:00 AM
- Moved down28.5 → 27.5Oct 24, 12:10 AM
- First seen28.5Oct 23, 07:00 PM
Map stats
Inferno
10 maps
Kills
15.2
KPR
0.7
HS%
53.9%
K/D
1.08
Mirage
10 maps
Kills
13.4
KPR
0.59
HS%
64.2%
K/D
0.85
Ancient
6 maps
Kills
16.5
KPR
0.74
HS%
59.6%
K/D
1.22
Nuke
5 maps
Kills
17.2
KPR
0.81
HS%
58.1%
K/D
1.39
Dust2
4 maps
Kills
15
KPR
0.7
HS%
56.7%
K/D
1.18
Overpass
3 maps
Kills
14.7
KPR
0.72
HS%
63.6%
K/D
1.05
Cache
2 maps
Kills
13
KPR
0.68
HS%
53.8%
K/D
0.93
Recent Maps 1-2 results
| Date | Opp | Map 1 | Map 2 | Total | Team | Prop | Flags |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-10-24 | Aurora | 15 Inferno 12-16 | 18 Nuke 13-2 | 33 | Split | Over ✓ | OTBO |
| 2026-10-22 | PARIVISION | 12 Ancient 13-6 | 10 Mirage 13-11 | 22 | W | Under ✗ | |
| 2026-10-22 | BIG | 12 Cache 4-13 | 10 Inferno 13-3 | 22 | Split | Under ✗ | BO |
| 2026-10-21 | PRIVATE | 11 Mirage 13-6 | 17 Ancient 13-7 | 28 | W | Over ✓ | |
| 2026-10-21 | magic | 19 Inferno 13-9 | 18 Ancient 13-10 | 37 | W | Over ✓ | |
| 2026-10-20 | BIG | 14 Cache 8-13 | 8 Mirage 4-13 | 22 | L | Under ✗ | BO |
| 2026-10-19 | Alliance | 11 Inferno 13-8 | 19 Dust2 13-11 | 30 | W | Over ✓ | |
| 2026-09-09 | 5star | 20 Inferno 9-13 | 20 Nuke 11-13 | 40 | L | Over ✓ | |
| 2026-09-08 | MIBR | 14 Ancient 13-5 | 17 Mirage 10-13 | 31 | Split | Over ✓ | BO |
| 2026-06-15 | 9z | 13 Inferno 8-13 | 14 Overpass 8-13 | 27 | L | Over ✓ | |
| 2026-06-14 | Monte | 15 Nuke 9-13 | 18 Inferno 13-7 | 33 | Split | Over ✓ | |
| 2026-06-13 | Natus Vincere | 18 Nuke 13-8 | 18 Ancient 13-16 | 36 | Split | Over ✓ | OT |
| 2026-06-12 | B8 | 16 Mirage 16-14 | 17 Overpass 13-3 | 33 | W | Over ✓ | OTBO |
| 2026-06-11 | BetBoom | 17 Dust2 13-11 | 9 Mirage 6-13 | 26 | Split | Over ✓ | |
| 2026-05-22 | Legacy | 13 Inferno 11-13 | 18 Mirage 13-10 | 31 | Split | Over ✓ | |
| 2026-05-22 | PARIVISION | 13 Dust2 13-4 | 10 Mirage 13-11 | 23 | W | Under ✗ | BO |
| 2026-05-21 | Liquid | 22 Mirage 11-13 | 15 Inferno 13-7 | 37 | Split | Over ✓ | |
| 2026-05-20 | B8 | 20 Ancient 11-13 | 15 Nuke 13-11 | 35 | Split | Over ✓ | |
| 2026-05-13 | Aurora | 13 Overpass 11-13 | 13 Mirage 10-13 | 26 | L | Over ✓ | |
| 2026-05-12 | Falcons | 11 Dust2 8-13 | 18 Inferno 13-11 | 29 | Split | Over ✓ |
