CS2 LAB
V1.0
KillsRisk
Line
22
Pick
OVER
Projection
22.24
Hit
46.2%
EV+
-19.9%
Edge
+0.2
L10
80%
HeadshotsBetter playRisk
Line
11.5
Pick
OVER
Projection
12.31
Hit
50.7%
EV+
-12.1%
Edge
+0.8
L10
80%
max
Rifler · IGL
max
9z vs Vitality
51%HIT CHANCE
RISK · OVER 11.5
SAME LINE ON ALL APPSPP11.5UD11.5
▲ L5 14.4 · L20 13.7Risk · Edge +0.8 far below ±2.0 +2
Hit rates at 11.5 (Over)
L5
60%
3/5
L10
80%
8/10
L20
60%
12/20
H2H
N/A
Volatility
High
±5.51
Previous meeting · vs Vitality
No meeting with Vitality in his last 20 series.
LAN vs online form
LAN · this match
8.4
2/8 hit at 11.5
Online
17.3
10/12 hit at 11.5
Avg headshots on Maps 1-2. The learned hit % now leans toward his form in this setting.
Late checks & sources
  • Map veto (currently estimated)
  • Confirm max is in the starting five
  • Re-check line: PASS at 11.5
bo3.gg per-map player statsbo3.gg match scheduleWin chance: Polymarket 15.5%
Unverified / missing: Maps 1-2 not confirmed
prizepicks · Headshots · Maps 1-2Risk
What to watch · Needs 12+ HS (~22 kills at 55.6% HS): 0.543 KPR over ~38 rounds. Main danger: a fast 2-0 (67.1%) or blowout (45.9%) cuts rounds.
Side
Over
Projection
12.31
Raw edge
+0.8
Cons. hit
50.7%
EV+
-12.1%
Rating
1/10
Exp. rounds
38.1
Line
11.5
Verdict
Risk
Plain model
50.7%
0 →
Learned
50.7%
learning 0x
Same-line track record · Over 9.5-13.5
All players · Headshots
53.5%213 picks
This player
33.3%3 picks
Green = above the 57.7% a 2-pick needs. Graded picks only, pushes left out.
raw 51.3% → −8% haircut · cap 68% · per-leg 1.732x · threshold ±2 (pref ±2.5)
  • Edge +0.8 below ±2.0 minimum
  • EV+ not positive at current payout
  • High form volatility
  • Game script fits: blowout 46% (under 40%) · team 16% to win (20%+)
  • Blowout loss risk — team only 16% to win. Big underdogs often lose maps 13-3 and the Over dies (e.g. Temny Prince: 9 kills in a 3-13 map 1). Over is penalised and can't be a Take.
Sharp checks · 4/5 active
Big enough sample · 20 recent series (need 8+)
L10 hit rate ≥ 60%off · L10 80.0% at this line
L20 hit rate ≥ 55%off · L20 60.0% at this line
Game script fits · blowout 46% (under 40%) · team 16% to win (20%+)
Standard line · Standard payout line
Bo3 series · Maps 1-2 guaranteed
L10 form (4/10 rule) · L10 8/10 at this line · projection 3.0 from his L10 avg
Projection = model only (the replay showed the last-5 blend didn't help)
Evidence & risk

Last 10 series Maps 1-2: avg 15.3 headshots vs line 10.0 (8/10 over). KPR 0.69, HS 56%. Next: vs Vitality, LAN.

Strongest: L10 average 15.3 against a 10.0 line

  • 38% of recent maps were blowouts (13-5 or worse)
  • Map veto not confirmed — Maps 1-2 estimated from recent map frequency
The read
Signal
PARTIAL
The call
PASS
Value
NO VALUE
  • • Model 12.31 vs line 11.5 → +0.81 (7.0%)
  • • Form L5 60% · L10 80% over this line
  • • Underdog (≤40%) → −1.0 rounds/map (learned from 24 real matches) · kill rate −6% KPR
  • • Expected 38.1 rounds · 2-0 67.1% · OT 5.6%
Performance (last 40 maps)
Kills/Map
12.32
HS/Map
6.85
K/D
0.92
KPR
0.69
ADR
76.1
KAST
78.3%
HS%
55.6%
Multi-kill
18.3%
Kills projection
Map 1 (Inferno)6.4 · KPR 0.616 · 18.9r
Map 2 (Dust2)5.9 · KPR 0.567 · 19.2r
Required KPR to clear0.543
Base kills (Maps 1-2)22.53
Sweep / blowout / OT adj.-1.75%
Final projected kills22.14
× realistic HS% (55.6%)12.31
Vitality gives up (100 series)-6.3% vs norm
Likely HS totals · Maps 1-2
Bars in colour cash the Over 11.5. Model: 51.3% before the safety haircut.
1234567891011121314151617181920212223242526272829line 11.5
Lopsided maps45.9%
~11 HS · 33r38%
Normal39.9%
~14 HS · 42r61.4%
Close maps8.6%
~14 HS · 42r60.5%
Overtime5.6%
~16 HS · 48r73.2%
Match context
Oct 24, 8:30 AM CTLANPGL Masters Bucharest 2026
HLTV #15VRS #16HLTV #2VRS #1
9z 16%84% Vitality
Win chance source: Polymarket 15.5%
Underdog (≤40%) → −1.0 rounds/map (learned from 24 real matches) · kill rate −6% KPR
⚠ Blowout riskBlowout loss risk — team only 16% to win. Big underdogs often lose maps 13-3 and the Over dies (e.g. Temny Prince: 9 kills in a 3-13 map 1). Over is penalised and can't be a Take.
M1 Inferno
18.9r
-5% KPR here
M2 Dust2
19.2r
-13% KPR here
Total
38.1r
2-0 sweep67.1%
Long Map 2 (24+ rounds)14.2%
Overtime5.6%
Blowout (13-5 or worse)45.9%

2-0 sweep is info only — Maps 1-2 are played either way.

Likely maps from his team's recent map frequency: Inferno / Dust2

Recent Maps 1-2 form
10 series · line 11.5 (Over) · avg 15.3 · hit 8/10 · tap a bar
11.5
Nearby lines
9.5 Over58.9%
10.5 Over55.1%below BE
11.5 Over50.7%OFFERED
12.5 Over46.4%below BE
13.5 Over42.3%below BE
Break-even per leg: 57.7%
Becomes a PASS at: 11.5
Line movement
first 10→11.5+1.5
  1. Back on board10 → 11.5
    Oct 24, 05:16 PM
  2. Pulled10
    Oct 24, 08:55 AM
  3. First seen10
    Oct 23, 07:00 PM
Map stats
Inferno
10 maps
Kills
12.5
KPR
0.64
HS%
66.4%
K/D
0.92
Nuke
7 maps
Kills
9.9
KPR
0.5
HS%
44.9%
K/D
0.74
Dust2
7 maps
Kills
11.1
KPR
0.57
HS%
59%
K/D
0.82
Ancient
6 maps
Kills
14.7
KPR
0.73
HS%
53.4%
K/D
1.04
Mirage
6 maps
Kills
13.2
KPR
0.63
HS%
40.5%
K/D
1.03
Cache
2 maps
Kills
11.5
KPR
0.53
HS%
52.2%
K/D
0.79
Anubis
2 maps
Kills
15.5
KPR
0.84
HS%
74.2%
K/D
1.48
Recent Maps 1-2 results
DateOppMap 1Map 2TotalTeamPropFlags
2026-10-22MEIA NOITE6 Inferno 13-211 Dust2 9-1317SplitOver ✓BO
2026-10-18Procyon15 Ancient 13-99 Dust2 13-724WOver ✓
2026-10-16Procyon12 Inferno 11-137 Mirage 13-119SplitOver ✓BO
2026-10-16Aurora5 Cache 11-132 Inferno 4-137LUnder ✗BO
2026-10-15Falcons3 Nuke 9-132 Mirage 13-85SplitUnder ✗
2026-10-14Aurora7 Inferno 13-117 Nuke 13-114WOver ✓BO
2026-10-13Procyon12 Anubis 13-24 Ancient 13-216WOver ✓BO
2026-10-10BORRACHEIROS8 Inferno 1-1313 Mirage 14-1621LOver ✓OTBO
2026-10-09Isurus8 Inferno 13-66 Dust2 13-314WOver ✓BO
2026-10-08Procyon12 Inferno 13-54 Nuke 13-916WOver ✓BO
2026-10-07Bounty Hunters11 Anubis 9-134 Nuke 5-1315LOver ✓BO
2026-10-07FURIA3 Nuke 7-134 Inferno 3-137LUnder ✗BO
2026-10-06BetBoom4 Dust2 13-83 Mirage 13-97WUnder ✗
2026-10-05Natus Vincere6 Nuke 6-137 Cache 6-1313LOver ✓
2026-10-04Galorys5 Inferno 4-135 Ancient 6-1310LUnder ✗BO
2026-10-04TYLOO4 Nuke 13-103 Mirage 13-27WUnder ✗BO
2026-10-03ex-Keyd Stars10 Ancient 13-1110 Dust2 7-1320SplitOver ✓
2026-10-03Aurora3 Dust2 3-134 Mirage 11-137LUnder ✗BO
2026-10-02Isurus19 Inferno 16-149 Ancient 13-1028WOver ✓OT
2026-09-29Procyon3 Dust2 10-134 Ancient 5-137LUnder ✗BO
CS2 Lab is 21+

Stats and analysis for CS2 props — not betting advice and no guarantee of results. Only play where it's legal, and never more than you can afford to lose.

Gambling problem? Call 1-800-GAMBLER.

We'd like to record anonymous sessions (clicks and page views, no names) to fix bugs. You choose — see Privacy.

Install CS2 Lab
Full screen, one tap from your home screen, live alerts
  1. LIVE now · Metizport vs BRUTE
    Your props are in play
  2. LIVE now · Spirit vs FURIA
    Your props are in play