CS2 LAB
V1.0
KillsBetter playTake
Line
24.5
Pick
OVER
Projection
28.83
Hit
61.8%
EV+
+7.1%
Edge
+4.3
L10
60%
HeadshotsLean
Line
12
Pick
OVER
Projection
13.95
Hit
53.3%
EV+
-7.7%
Edge
+1.9
L10
40%
NickelBack
Rifler
NickelBack
FORZE Reload vs Nuclear TigeRES
62%HIT CHANCE
TAKE · OVER 24.5
≈ L5 29.4 · L20 28.9
Hit rates at 24.5 (Over)
L5
60%
3/5
L10
60%
6/10
L20
70%
14/20
H2H
N/A
Volatility
Low
±6.22
Previous meeting · vs Nuclear TigeRES
No meeting with Nuclear TigeRES in his last 20 series.
LAN vs online form
LAN
—
no series
Online · this match
28.9
14/20 hit at 24.5
Avg kills on Maps 1-2. The learned hit % now leans toward his form in this setting.
Late checks & sources
  • Map veto (currently estimated)
  • Confirm NickelBack is in the starting five
  • Re-check line: PASS at 26
bo3.gg per-map player statsbo3.gg match scheduleWin chance: Polymarket 36.5%
Unverified / missing: Maps 1-2 not confirmed
prizepicks · Kills · Maps 1-2Take
What to watch · Needs 25+ kills: 0.546 KPR over ~45 rounds. Main danger: a fast 2-0 (54.3%) or blowout (24.1%) cuts rounds.
Side
Over
Projection
28.83
Raw edge
+4.3
Cons. hit
61.8%
EV+
+7.1%
Rating
8.2/10
Exp. rounds
44.9
Line
24.5
Verdict
Take
Plain model
61.8%
0 →
Learned
61.8%
learning 0x
Same-line track record · Over 22.5-26.5
All players · Kills
55.1%196 picks
This player
100%1 picks
Green = above the 57.7% a 2-pick needs. Graded picks only, pushes left out.
raw 73.9% → −8% haircut · cap 68% · per-leg 1.732x · threshold ±3 (pref ±4)
  • Near the blowout zone — team 37% to win (ideal for Overs: 40-70%).
Clears edge, form, EV+, volatility and every sharp check
Sharp checks · 5/5 active
Big enough sample · 20 recent series (need 8+)
L10 hit rate ≥ 60%off · L10 60.0% at this line
L20 hit rate ≥ 55%off · L20 70.0% at this line
Game script fits · 44.9 exp. rounds (need 38+) · blowout 24% (under 40%) · team 37% to win (20%+)
Standard line · Standard payout line
Bo3 series · Maps 1-2 guaranteed
L10 form (4/10 rule) · L10 6/10 at this line · projection 0.4 from his L10 avg
Projection = model only (the replay showed the last-5 blend didn't help)
Evidence & risk

Last 10 series Maps 1-2: avg 28.4 kills vs line 24.5 (6/10 over). KPR 0.61, HS 48%. Next: vs Nuclear TigeRES, LAN/Online unknown.

Strongest: L10 average 28.4 against a 24.5 line

Biggest risk: Map veto not confirmed — Maps 1-2 estimated from recent map frequency

  • Map veto not confirmed — Maps 1-2 estimated from recent map frequency
The read
Signal
ALIGNED
The call
TAKE OVER
Value
THIN
  • • Model 28.83 vs line 24.5 → +4.33 (17.7%)
  • • Form L5 60% · L10 60% over this line
  • • Underdog (≤40%) → −1.0 rounds/map (learned from 22 real matches) · kill rate −5% KPR
  • • Expected 44.9 rounds · 2-0 54.3% · OT 16.7%
Performance (last 40 maps)
Kills/Map
14.45
HS/Map
7
K/D
0.96
KPR
0.61
ADR
73.3
KAST
73.3%
HS%
48.4%
Multi-kill
13.6%
Kills projection
Map 1 (Dust2)13.1 · KPR 0.601 · 21.8r
Map 2 (Mirage)15.7 · KPR 0.678 · 23.1r
Required KPR to clear0.546
Base kills (Maps 1-2)28.75
Sweep / blowout / OT adj.+0.28%
Final projected kills28.83
Nuclear TigeRES gives up (38 series)+0.2% vs norm
Likely kills totals · Maps 1-2
Bars in colour cash the Over 24.5. Model: 73.9% before the safety haircut.
141516171819202122232425262728293031323334353637383940414243444546line 24.5
Lopsided maps24.1%
~24 kills · 38r46.3%
Normal49.2%
~29 kills · 45r77.3%
Close maps10%
~31 kills · 48r87%
Overtime16.7%
~35 kills · 54r96.1%
Match context
Oct 24, 9:00 AM CTOnline
HLTV #80VRS #84HLTV #50VRS #47
FORZE Reload 37%63% Nuclear TigeRES
Win chance source: Polymarket 36.5%
Underdog (≤40%) → −1.0 rounds/map (learned from 22 real matches) · kill rate −5% KPR
Heads upNear the blowout zone — team 37% to win (ideal for Overs: 40-70%).
M1 Dust2
21.8r
+3% KPR here
M2 Mirage
23.1r
+16% KPR here
Total
44.9r
2-0 sweep54.3%
Long Map 2 (24+ rounds)26.7%
Overtime16.7%
Blowout (13-5 or worse)24.1%

2-0 sweep is info only — Maps 1-2 are played either way.

Likely maps from his team's recent map frequency: Dust2 / Mirage

Recent Maps 1-2 form
10 series · line 24.5 (Over) · avg 28.4 · hit 6/10 · tap a bar
24.5
Nearby lines
22.5 Over65.7%
23.5 Over64.2%
24.5 Over61.8%OFFERED
25.5 Over59.7%
26.5 Over56.9%below BE
Break-even per leg: 57.7%
Becomes a PASS at: 26
Line movement
first 24.5→offno change
  1. Pulled24.5
    Oct 24, 09:00 AM
  2. First seen24.5
    Oct 23, 07:00 PM
Map stats
Dust2
19 maps
Kills
14.6
KPR
0.64
HS%
54.9%
K/D
0.94
Mirage
7 maps
Kills
19.1
KPR
0.76
HS%
43.3%
K/D
1.09
Cache
6 maps
Kills
12.8
KPR
0.69
HS%
40.3%
K/D
1.28
Ancient
4 maps
Kills
14.2
KPR
0.59
HS%
42.1%
K/D
0.85
Inferno
3 maps
Kills
8.7
KPR
0.38
HS%
42.3%
K/D
0.58
Nuke
1 maps
Kills
7
KPR
0.39
HS%
57.1%
K/D
0.47
Recent Maps 1-2 results
DateOppMap 1Map 2TotalTeamPropFlags
2026-10-23FORZE Reload12 Ancient 13-711 Dust2 13-723WUnder ✗
2026-10-22FORZE Reload28 Mirage 19-1614 Cache 13-542WOver ✓OTBO
2026-10-20ex-Zero Tenacity10 Dust2 10-1314 Cache 13-1124SplitUnder ✗
2026-10-18FORZE Reload16 Dust2 13-615 Cache 13-031WOver ✓BO
2026-09-26FOKUS18 Dust2 16-149 Cache 7-1327SplitOver ✓OT
2026-09-23Just Players17 Dust2 13-1014 Mirage 13-331WOver ✓BO
2026-09-21BRUTE13 Dust2 10-138 Mirage 7-1321LUnder ✗
2026-09-20INOX Division13 Dust2 13-118 Inferno 16-1221WUnder ✗OT
2026-09-18Color14 Dust2 11-1317 Mirage 13-1631LOver ✓OT
2026-09-16BAKS18 Ancient 16-1915 Dust2 13-533SplitOver ✓OTBO
2026-09-12Color8 Inferno 7-1312 Dust2 13-1120SplitUnder ✗
2026-09-09Leo9 Dust2 13-77 Nuke 5-1316SplitUnder ✗BO
2026-09-06ex-Zero Tenacity17 Cache 13-610 Dust2 13-227WOver ✓BO
2026-09-04HAVU13 Dust2 13-633 Mirage 20-1946WOver ✓OT
2026-08-29Honvéd17 Mirage 13-414 Dust2 13-731WOver ✓BO
2026-08-28Inner Circle Academy12 Ancient 7-1313 Dust2 13-925SplitOver ✓
2026-08-26INOX Division18 Dust2 11-1310 Inferno 13-728SplitOver ✓
2026-08-23Color23 Dust2 22-1917 Mirage 13-840WOver ✓OT
2026-08-21Leo15 Ancient 13-915 Dust2 13-1030WOver ✓
2026-08-20Color23 Dust2 11-138 Cache 13-431SplitOver ✓BO
CS2 Lab is 21+

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