KillsBetter playRisk
Line
27
Pick
OVER
Projection
29.17
Hit
54.3%
EV+
-6.0%
Edge
+2.2
L10
80%
HeadshotsRisk
Line
15.5
Pick
OVER
Projection
15.57
Hit
46.9%
EV+
-18.7%
Edge
+0.1
L10
70%
Rifler
syph0
Nemiga vs Legacy
RISK · OVER 27
BEST OVER · PP 27PP27UD28.5
▲ L5 33.6 · L20 30.7Risk · Edge +2.2 far below ±3.0 +1
Hit rates at 27 (Over)
L5
100%
5/5
L10
80%
8/10
L20
70%
14/20
H2H
N/A
Volatility
Low
±5.81
Previous meeting · vs Legacy
No meeting with Legacy in his last 20 series.
LAN vs online form
LAN · this match
34
4/4 hit at 27
Online
29.9
10/16 hit at 27
Avg kills on Maps 1-2. The learned hit % now leans toward his form in this setting.
Late checks & sources
- Map veto (currently estimated)
- Confirm SYPH0 is in the starting five
- Re-check line: PASS at 27
bo3.gg per-map player statsbo3.gg match scheduleWin chance: Polymarket 34.5%
Unverified / missing: Maps 1-2 not confirmed
prizepicks · Kills · Maps 1-2Risk
What to watch · Needs 28+ kills: 0.632 KPR over ~43 rounds. Main danger: a fast 2-0 (57.1%) or blowout (26.9%) cuts rounds.
Side
Over
Projection
29.17
Raw edge
+2.2
Cons. hit
54.3%
EV+
-6.0%
Rating
2.8/10
Exp. rounds
42.7
Line
27
Verdict
Risk
Plain model
54.3%
0 →
Learned
54.3%
what past results change
learning 0x
learning 0x
Same-line track record · Over 25-29
All players · Kills
55.6%360 picks
This player
66.7%3 picks
Green = above the 57.7% a 2-pick needs. Graded picks only, pushes left out.
raw 58.1% → −8% haircut · cap 68% · per-leg 1.732x · threshold ±3 (pref ±4)
- Edge +2.2 below ±3.0 minimum
- EV+ not positive at current payout
- Blowout loss risk — team only 35% to win. Big underdogs often lose maps 13-3 and the Over dies (e.g. Temny Prince: 9 kills in a 3-13 map 1). Over is penalised and can't be a Take.
Sharp checks · 5/5 active
Big enough sample · 20 recent series (need 8+)
L10 hit rate ≥ 60%off · L10 80.0% at this line
L20 hit rate ≥ 55%off · L20 70.0% at this line
Game script fits · 42.7 exp. rounds (need 38+) · blowout 27% (under 40%) · team 35% to win (20%+)
Standard line · Standard payout line
Bo3 series · Maps 1-2 guaranteed
L10 form (4/10 rule) · L10 8/10 at this line · projection 2.8 from his L10 avg
Projection = model only (the replay showed the last-5 blend didn't help)
Evidence & risk
Last 10 series Maps 1-2: avg 32.0 kills vs line 27.5 (8/10 over). KPR 0.70, HS 53%. Next: vs Legacy, LAN.
Strongest: L10 average 32.0 against a 27.5 line
Biggest risk: Map veto not confirmed — Maps 1-2 estimated from recent map frequency
- Map veto not confirmed — Maps 1-2 estimated from recent map frequency
The read
Signal
ALIGNED
The call
PASS
Value
NO VALUE
- • Model 29.17 vs line 27 → +2.17 (8.0%)
- • Form L5 100% · L10 80% over this line
- • Underdog (≤40%) → −1.0 rounds/map (learned from 24 real matches) · kill rate −5% KPR
- • Expected 42.7 rounds · 2-0 57.1% · OT 16.7%
Performance (last 40 maps)
Kills/Map
15.35
HS/Map
8.2
K/D
1.12
KPR
0.7
ADR
78.9
KAST
75.9%
HS%
53.4%
Multi-kill
17%
Kills projection
Map 1 (Cache)13.7 · KPR 0.714 · 19.2r
Map 2 (Mirage)15.4 · KPR 0.655 · 23.5r
Required KPR to clear0.632
Base kills (Maps 1-2)29.12
Sweep / blowout / OT adj.+0.15%
Final projected kills29.17
Legacy gives up (79 series)-4.3% vs norm
Likely kills totals · Maps 1-2
Bars in colour cash the Over 27. Model: 58.1% before the safety haircut.
Lopsided maps26.9%
~25 kills · 36r26.9%
Normal50.6%
~29 kills · 43r62.2%
Close maps5.8%
~31 kills · 46r73.5%
Overtime16.7%
~35 kills · 52r90.4%
Match context
Oct 24, 7:55 AM CTLANPGL Masters Bucharest 2026
Win chance source: Polymarket 34.5%
Underdog (≤40%) → −1.0 rounds/map (learned from 24 real matches) · kill rate −5% KPR
⚠ Blowout riskBlowout loss risk — team only 35% to win. Big underdogs often lose maps 13-3 and the Over dies (e.g. Temny Prince: 9 kills in a 3-13 map 1). Over is penalised and can't be a Take.
M1 Cache
19.2r
+8% KPR here
M2 Mirage
23.5r
-1% KPR here
Total
42.7r
2-0 sweep57.1%
Long Map 2 (24+ rounds)22.5%
Overtime16.7%
Blowout (13-5 or worse)26.9%
2-0 sweep is info only — Maps 1-2 are played either way.
Likely maps from his team's recent map frequency: Cache / Mirage
Recent Maps 1-2 form
10 series · line 27 (Over) · avg 32.0 · hit 8/10 · tap a bar
27
Nearby lines
| 25 Over | 60.1% | |
| 26 Over | 57.5% | below BE |
| 27 Over | 54.3% | OFFERED |
| 28 Over | 48.7% | below BE |
| 29 Over | 45.1% | below BE |
Break-even per leg: 57.7%
Becomes a PASS at: 27
Line movement
first 27.5→27-0.5
- Back on board27.5 → 27Oct 24, 04:08 PM
- Pulled27.5Oct 24, 07:46 AM
- Back on board27.5 → 27.5Oct 24, 07:45 AM
- Pulled27.5Oct 24, 07:45 AM
- First seen27.5Oct 23, 07:00 PM
Map stats
Cache
9 maps
Kills
15.2
KPR
0.77
HS%
46.7%
K/D
1.3
Mirage
9 maps
Kills
17.6
KPR
0.69
HS%
45.6%
K/D
1.11
Ancient
8 maps
Kills
12.4
KPR
0.61
HS%
54.5%
K/D
0.94
Dust2
6 maps
Kills
14.8
KPR
0.64
HS%
62.9%
K/D
0.95
Anubis
4 maps
Kills
11.5
KPR
0.55
HS%
58.7%
K/D
0.87
Nuke
4 maps
Kills
21.2
KPR
1.01
HS%
64.7%
K/D
1.81
Recent Maps 1-2 results
| Date | Opp | Map 1 | Map 2 | Total | Team | Prop | Flags |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-10-10 | Iberian Soul | 8 Cache 7-13 | 31 Nuke 16-13 | 39 | Split | Over ✓ | OT |
| 2026-10-08 | Lavked | 15 Anubis 13-5 | 15 Dust2 13-4 | 30 | W | Over ✓ | BO |
| 2026-10-04 | Astralis | 12 Mirage 6-13 | 16 Ancient 13-10 | 28 | Split | Over ✓ | |
| 2026-10-03 | Luminosity | 11 Cache 13-11 | 30 Dust2 16-13 | 41 | W | Over ✓ | OT |
| 2026-10-02 | Alliance | 20 Cache 13-6 | 10 Ancient 13-8 | 30 | W | Over ✓ | |
| 2026-10-01 | FaZe | 18 Mirage 16-12 | 19 Ancient 13-11 | 37 | W | Over ✓ | OT |
| 2026-09-28 | BET-M | 16 Anubis 13-10 | 17 Nuke 13-6 | 33 | W | Over ✓ | |
| 2026-09-28 | FOKUS | 10 Dust2 13-6 | 25 Mirage 22-20 | 35 | W | Over ✓ | OT |
| 2026-09-27 | Color | 16 Cache 13-5 | 6 Dust2 9-13 | 22 | Split | Under ✗ | BO |
| 2026-09-26 | Black Phoenix | 15 Cache 13-9 | 10 Dust2 9-13 | 25 | Split | Under ✗ | |
| 2026-09-25 | INOX Division | 16 Nuke 13-2 | 13 Ancient 13-10 | 29 | W | Over ✓ | BO |
| 2026-09-24 | Just Players | 24 Mirage 13-9 | 14 Cache 13-6 | 38 | W | Over ✓ | |
| 2026-09-14 | Metizport | 18 Mirage 16-14 | 21 Nuke 13-8 | 39 | W | Over ✓ | OT |
| 2026-09-13 | SINNERS | 27 Cache 13-10 | 16 Mirage 13-10 | 43 | W | Over ✓ | |
| 2026-09-12 | Just Players | 7 Ancient 13-6 | 10 Cache 13-3 | 17 | W | Under ✗ | BO |
| 2026-09-10 | K27 | 7 Anubis 10-13 | 12 Mirage 13-9 | 19 | Split | Under ✗ | |
| 2026-09-09 | HOTU | 8 Ancient 3-13 | 16 Cache 13-4 | 24 | Split | Under ✗ | BO |
| 2026-09-08 | Color | 18 Dust2 16-13 | 8 Anubis 13-6 | 26 | W | Under ✗ | OT |
| 2026-09-06 | FOKUS | 19 Mirage 16-14 | 9 Ancient 13-3 | 28 | W | Over ✓ | OTBO |
| 2026-09-05 | Nemesis | 14 Mirage 13-1 | 17 Ancient 13-7 | 31 | W | Over ✓ | BO |
