KillsRisk
Line
32
Pick
OVER
Projection
33.99
Hit
54.7%
EV+
-5.2%
Edge
+2.0
L10
60%
HeadshotsBetter playLean
Line
11
Pick
OVER
Projection
13.08
Hit
61.2%
EV+
+6.0%
Edge
+2.1
L10
40%
AWPer
Gratisfaction
Off Chops vs Ground Zero
RISK · OVER 32
PP32
▲ L5 35.8 · L20 30.1Risk · Edge +2.0 far below ±3.0
Hit rates at 32 (Over)
L5
60%
3/5
L10
60%
6/10
L20
35%
7/20
H2H
0%
0/1
Volatility
Medium
±7.3
Previous meeting · vs Ground Zero
0/1 hit · avg 25 kills on Maps 1-2
2026-10-16 · Logitech G Pro Series 2026
Dust2 13-6 · Anubis 11-13 · Split
25
Under 32 ✗
LAN vs online form
LAN · this match
36.5
4/6 hit at 32
Online
27.3
3/14 hit at 32
Avg kills on Maps 1-2. The learned hit % now leans toward his form in this setting.
Late checks & sources
- Map veto (currently estimated)
- Confirm Gratisfaction is in the starting five
- Re-check line: PASS at 32
bo3.gg per-map player statsbo3.gg match scheduleWin chance: Polymarket 67.5%
Unverified / missing: Maps 1-2 not confirmed
prizepicks · Kills · Maps 1-2Risk
What to watch · Needs 33+ kills: 0.818 KPR over ~39 rounds. Main danger: a fast 2-0 (63.9%) or blowout (40.8%) cuts rounds.
Side
Over
Projection
33.99
Raw edge
+2.0
Cons. hit
54.7%
EV+
-5.2%
Rating
4.8/10
Exp. rounds
39.1
Line
32
Verdict
Risk
Plain model
54.7%
0 →
Learned
54.7%
what past results change
learning 0x
learning 0x
Same-line track record · Over 30-34
All players · Kills
53.2%190 picks
This player
—0 picks
Green = above the 57.7% a 2-pick needs. Graded picks only, pushes left out.
raw 54.3% → −8% haircut · cap 74% · per-leg 1.732x · threshold ±3 (pref ±4)
- Edge +2.0 below ±3.0 minimum
- EV+ not positive at current payout
- Game script fits: blowout 41% (under 40%)
- Blowout win risk — team 79% to win. A 13-3 stomp means fewer rounds to farm kills; still playable.
Sharp checks · 5/6
Big enough sample · 20 recent series (need 8+)
L10 hit rate ≥ 60% · L10 60.0% at this line · gate off (replay: didn't help)
L20 hit rate ≥ 55% · L20 35.0% at this line · gate off (replay: didn't help)
Game script fits · blowout 41% (under 40%)
Standard line · Standard payout line
Bo3 series · Maps 1-2 guaranteed
Projection = model only (the replay showed the last-5 blend didn't help)
Evidence & risk
Last 10 series Maps 1-2: avg 33.9 kills vs line 32.0 (6/10 over). KPR 0.81, HS 40%. Next: vs Ground Zero, LAN.
Strongest: L10 average 33.9 against a 32.0 line
- 38% of recent maps were blowouts (13-5 or worse)
- Map veto not confirmed — Maps 1-2 estimated from recent map frequency
The read
Signal
PARTIAL
The call
PASS
Value
NO VALUE
- • Model 33.99 vs line 32 → +1.99 (6.2%)
- • Form L5 60% · L10 60% over this line
- • Heavy favourite (≥70%) → −1.5 rounds/map (learned from 11 real matches) · kill rate +8% KPR
- • Expected 39.1 rounds · 2-0 63.9% · OT 5.6%
Performance (last 40 maps)
Kills/Map
15.03
HS/Map
6.08
K/D
1.21
KPR
0.81
ADR
82.2
KAST
74.6%
HS%
40.4%
Multi-kill
20.6%
Kills projection
Map 1 (Dust2)16.5 · KPR 0.84 · 20.1r
Map 2 (Inferno)14.9 · KPR 0.8 · 19r
Required KPR to clear0.818
Base kills (Maps 1-2)32.09
Sweep / blowout / OT adj.-2.30%
Final projected kills31.35
Ground Zero gives up (5 series)+1.4% vs norm
Likely kills totals · Maps 1-2
Bars in colour cash the Over 32. Model: 54.3% before the safety haircut.
Lopsided maps40.8%
~29 kills · 33r25%
Normal36.7%
~37 kills · 43r76.7%
Close maps16.9%
~37 kills · 42r75%
Overtime5.6%
~42 kills · 48r93%
Match context
Oct 26, 03:00 AMLANDFRAG Invitational 2026
Win chance source: Polymarket 79.0% · live
Heavy favourite (≥70%) → −1.5 rounds/map (learned from 11 real matches) · kill rate +8% KPR
Heads upBlowout win risk — team 79% to win. A 13-3 stomp means fewer rounds to farm kills; still playable.
M1 Dust2
20.1r
-4% KPR here
M2 Inferno
19r
-9% KPR here
Total
39.1r
2-0 sweep63.9%
Long Map 2 (24+ rounds)22.5%
Overtime5.6%
Blowout (13-5 or worse)40.8%
2-0 sweep is info only — Maps 1-2 are played either way.
Likely maps from his team's recent map frequency: Dust2 / Inferno
Recent Maps 1-2 form
10 series · line 32 (Over) · avg 33.9 · hit 6/10 · tap a bar
32
Nearby lines
| 30 Over | 61.9% | |
| 31 Over | 58.5% | |
| 32 Over | 54.7% | OFFERED |
| 33 Over | 50.7% | below BE |
| 34 Over | 46.6% | below BE |
Break-even per leg: 57.7%
Becomes a PASS at: 32
Line movement
first 32→32no change
- First seen32Oct 24, 06:46 PM
Map stats
Dust2
15 maps
Kills
16.7
KPR
0.77
HS%
41.6%
K/D
1.24
Inferno
11 maps
Kills
14.6
KPR
0.72
HS%
39.1%
K/D
1.16
Ancient
5 maps
Kills
10.6
KPR
0.62
HS%
43.4%
K/D
0.93
Nuke
3 maps
Kills
16.3
KPR
0.84
HS%
26.5%
K/D
1.48
Anubis
3 maps
Kills
14.3
KPR
0.72
HS%
34.9%
K/D
1.3
Cache
2 maps
Kills
14.5
KPR
0.78
HS%
44.8%
K/D
1.32
Mirage
1 maps
Kills
16
KPR
0.76
HS%
75%
K/D
1.6
Recent Maps 1-2 results
| Date | Opp | Map 1 | Map 2 | Total | Team | Prop | Flags |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-10-18 | NEXVOID | 36 Dust2 17-19 | 8 Inferno 9-13 | 44 | L | Over ✓ | OT |
| 2026-10-17 | Rooster | 11 Nuke 13-7 | 19 Cache 13-2 | 30 | W | Under ✗ | BO |
| 2026-10-16 | Abyssal | 16 Dust2 13-7 | 21 Inferno 13-3 | 37 | W | Over ✓ | BO |
| 2026-10-16 | Ground Zero | 14 Dust2 13-6 | 11 Anubis 11-13 | 25 | Split | Under ✗ | |
| 2026-10-16 | FlyQuest | 18 Dust2 10-13 | 25 Inferno 16-19 | 43 | L | Over ✓ | OT |
| 2026-09-29 | FlyQuest | 12 Inferno 4-13 | 15 Dust2 9-13 | 27 | L | Under ✗ | BO |
| 2026-09-28 | THUNDER dOWNUNDER | 17 Inferno 13-8 | 19 Dust2 13-9 | 36 | W | Over ✓ | |
| 2026-09-27 | FlyQuest | 11 Inferno 2-13 | 11 Ancient 4-13 | 22 | L | Under ✗ | BO |
| 2026-09-25 | THUNDER dOWNUNDER | 16 Ancient 13-4 | 18 Dust2 13-3 | 34 | W | Over ✓ | BO |
| 2026-09-23 | THUNDER dOWNUNDER | 23 Nuke 13-7 | 18 Inferno 13-7 | 41 | W | Over ✓ | |
| 2026-09-01 | THUNDER dOWNUNDER | 13 Dust2 13-8 | 19 Inferno 13-1 | 32 | W | Under ✗ | BO |
| 2026-08-30 | Alter Ego | 10 Cache 13-9 | 13 Dust2 11-13 | 23 | Split | Under ✗ | |
| 2026-08-30 | THUNDER dOWNUNDER | 15 Nuke 13-5 | 8 Inferno 11-13 | 23 | Split | Under ✗ | BO |
| 2026-08-29 | The Huns | 11 Dust2 11-13 | 12 Ancient 13-7 | 23 | Split | Under ✗ | |
| 2026-08-28 | Nas | 16 Mirage 13-8 | 15 Dust2 13-3 | 31 | W | Under ✗ | BO |
| 2026-08-28 | THUNDER dOWNUNDER | 17 Inferno 13-8 | 13 Anubis 13-5 | 30 | W | Under ✗ | BO |
| 2026-08-27 | Alter Ego | 14 Dust2 10-13 | 7 Ancient 13-4 | 21 | Split | Under ✗ | BO |
| 2026-08-26 | NEXVOID | 17 Dust2 13-7 | 5 Inferno 5-13 | 22 | Split | Under ✗ | BO |
| 2026-08-25 | QuantumX | 7 Ancient 13-1 | 10 Dust2 13-6 | 17 | W | Under ✗ | BO |
| 2026-07-19 | FlyQuest | 21 Dust2 13-6 | 19 Anubis 13-5 | 40 | W | Over ✓ | BO |
