KillsRisk
Line
31
Pick
UNDER
Projection
29.91
Hit
42.7%
EV+
-26.0%
Edge
-1.1
L10
40%
HeadshotsBetter playRisk
Line
17.5
Pick
UNDER
Projection
16.21
Hit
50.4%
EV+
-12.8%
Edge
-1.3
L10
50%
Rifler
dexter
Off Chops vs NEXVOID
RISK · UNDER 31
PP31
▲ L5 32.2 · L20 28.6Risk · Edge -1.1 far below ±3.0LAN UNDER · 43% hit
Hit rates at 31 (Under)
L5
20%
1/5
L10
40%
4/10
L20
63%
12/19
H2H
0%
0/1
Volatility
Medium
±8.26
Previous meeting · vs NEXVOID
0/1 hit · avg 39 kills on Maps 1-2
2026-10-18 · Logitech G Pro Series 2026
Dust2 17-19 · Inferno 9-13 · L
39
Over 31 ✗
LAN vs online form
LAN · this match
30.8
6/13 hit at 31
Online
23.8
6/6 hit at 31
Avg kills on Maps 1-2. The learned hit % now leans toward his form in this setting.
Late checks & sources
- Map veto (currently estimated)
- Confirm dexter is in the starting five
- Re-check line: PASS at 31
bo3.gg per-map player statsbo3.gg match schedule
Unverified / missing: Maps 1-2 not confirmed
prizepicks · Kills · Maps 1-2Risk
What to watch · Stays under with 30 kills or fewer: below 0.709 KPR over ~44 rounds. Main danger: overtime (5.8%) or long close maps add rounds.
Side
Under
Projection
29.91
Raw edge
-1.1
Cons. hit
42.7%
EV+
-26.0%
Rating
1/10
Exp. rounds
43.7
Line
31
Verdict
Risk
Plain model
42.7%
0 →
Learned
42.7%
what past results change
learning 0x
learning 0x
Same-line track record · Under 29-33
All players · Kills
46.3%350 picks
This player
—0 picks
Green = above the 57.7% a 2-pick needs. Graded picks only, pushes left out.
raw 55.3% → −8% haircut · cap 68% · per-leg 1.732x · threshold ±3 (pref ±4)
- Edge -1.1 below ±3.0 minimum
- EV+ not positive at current payout
Sharp checks · 5/5 active
L10 only 40% at this line (under 50%)
Big enough sample · 19 recent series (need 8+)
L10 hit rate ≥ 60%off · L10 40.0% at this line
L20 hit rate ≥ 55%off · L20 63.2% at this line
Game script fits · OT 6% (under 22%) · 43.7 exp. rounds (under 47)
Standard line · Standard payout line
Bo3 series · Maps 1-2 guaranteed
L10 form (4/10 rule) · L10 4/10 at this line · projection 0.8 from his L10 avg
Projection = model only (the replay showed the last-5 blend didn't help)
Evidence & risk
Last 10 series Maps 1-2: avg 30.7 kills vs line 31.0 (6/10 over). KPR 0.72, HS 54%. Next: vs NEXVOID, LAN.
Strongest: L10 average 30.7 against a 31.0 line
Biggest risk: 28% of recent maps were blowouts (13-5 or worse)
- 28% of recent maps were blowouts (13-5 or worse)
- Map veto not confirmed — Maps 1-2 estimated from recent map frequency
The read
Signal
MIXED
The call
PASS
Value
NO VALUE
- • Model 29.91 vs line 31 → -1.09 (-3.5%)
- • Form L5 20% · L10 40% under this line
- • Win chance unknown — no favourite adjustment
- • Expected 43.7 rounds · 2-0 58% · OT 5.8%
Performance (last 38 maps)
Kills/Map
14.32
HS/Map
7.76
K/D
0.99
KPR
0.72
ADR
80.2
KAST
70.9%
HS%
54.2%
Multi-kill
18.8%
Kills projection
Map 1 (Dust2)15.9 · KPR 0.699 · 23r
Map 2 (Inferno)14 · KPR 0.685 · 20.7r
Required KPR to clear0.709
Base kills (Maps 1-2)30.26
Sweep / blowout / OT adj.-1.15%
Final projected kills29.91
NEXVOID gives up (24 series)+3.4% vs norm
Likely kills totals · Maps 1-2
Bars in colour cash the Under 31. Model: 55.3% before the safety haircut.
Lopsided maps27.3%
~25 kills · 37r78.8%
Normal57.9%
~31 kills · 46r48.8%
Close maps9%
~32 kills · 47r44.8%
Overtime5.8%
~36 kills · 53r26.2%
Match context
Oct 27, 10:00 PM CTLANDFRAG Invitational 2026
Win chance source: —
Win chance unknown — no favourite adjustment
M1 Dust2
23r
-3% KPR here
M2 Inferno
20.7r
-5% KPR here
Total
43.7r
2-0 sweep58%
Long Map 2 (24+ rounds)14.8%
Overtime5.8%
Blowout (13-5 or worse)27.3%
2-0 sweep is info only — Maps 1-2 are played either way. Sweep from win chance + his team's 2-0 rate + opponent's 2-0 rate. Rounds & blowout from 38 his-team maps + 30 opponent maps + 2 past-meeting maps.
Likely maps from his team's recent map frequency: Dust2 / Inferno
Recent Maps 1-2 form
10 series · line 31 (Under) · avg 30.7 · hit 4/10 · tap a bar
31
Nearby lines
| 29 Under | 37% | below BE |
| 30 Under | 39.9% | below BE |
| 31 Under | 42.7% | OFFERED |
| 32 Under | 45.6% | below BE |
| 33 Under | 50.3% | below BE |
Break-even per leg: 57.7%
Becomes a PASS at: 31
Line movement
first 31→31no change
- First seen31Oct 26, 09:41 PM
Map stats
Dust2
13 maps
Kills
15.5
KPR
0.69
HS%
56.2%
K/D
1.04
Inferno
9 maps
Kills
13.9
KPR
0.67
HS%
56.8%
K/D
0.93
Nuke
6 maps
Kills
12.7
KPR
0.67
HS%
61.8%
K/D
0.87
Anubis
6 maps
Kills
14.8
KPR
0.7
HS%
40.4%
K/D
1.01
Ancient
3 maps
Kills
11.7
KPR
0.7
HS%
48.6%
K/D
0.85
Cache
1 maps
Kills
18
KPR
1.2
HS%
61.1%
K/D
2.57
Recent Maps 1-2 results
| Date | Opp | Map 1 | Map 2 | Total | Team | Prop | Flags |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-10-26 | Alter Ego | 19 Inferno 11-13 | 4 Ancient 3-13 | 23 | L | Under ✓ | BO |
| 2026-10-26 | Ground Zero | 20 Dust2 13-8 | 12 Anubis 13-7 | 32 | W | Over ✗ | |
| 2026-10-18 | NEXVOID | 21 Dust2 17-19 | 18 Inferno 9-13 | 39 | L | Over ✗ | OT |
| 2026-10-17 | Rooster | 16 Nuke 13-7 | 18 Cache 13-2 | 34 | W | Over ✗ | BO |
| 2026-10-16 | Abyssal | 18 Dust2 13-7 | 15 Inferno 13-3 | 33 | W | Over ✗ | BO |
| 2026-10-16 | Ground Zero | 23 Dust2 13-6 | 16 Anubis 11-13 | 39 | Split | Over ✗ | |
| 2026-10-16 | FlyQuest | 22 Dust2 10-13 | 21 Inferno 16-19 | 43 | L | Over ✗ | OT |
| 2026-09-29 | FlyQuest | 7 Inferno 4-13 | 10 Dust2 9-13 | 17 | L | Under ✓ | BO |
| 2026-09-28 | THUNDER dOWNUNDER | 15 Inferno 13-8 | 12 Dust2 13-9 | 27 | W | Under ✓ | |
| 2026-09-27 | FlyQuest | 6 Inferno 2-13 | 14 Ancient 4-13 | 20 | L | Under ✓ | BO |
| 2026-09-25 | THUNDER dOWNUNDER | 17 Ancient 13-4 | 10 Dust2 13-3 | 27 | W | Under ✓ | BO |
| 2026-09-23 | THUNDER dOWNUNDER | 14 Nuke 13-7 | 14 Inferno 13-7 | 28 | W | Under ✓ | |
| 2026-07-18 | THUNDER dOWNUNDER | 14 Dust2 13-8 | 21 Anubis 10-13 | 35 | Split | Over ✗ | |
| 2026-07-18 | FlyQuest | 13 Dust2 10-13 | 5 Nuke 1-13 | 18 | L | Under ✓ | BO |
| 2026-07-18 | THUNDER dOWNUNDER | 15 Dust2 13-10 | 15 Anubis 13-7 | 30 | W | Under ✓ | |
| 2026-07-17 | Rooster | 15 Nuke 13-0 | 9 Anubis 13-4 | 24 | W | Under ✓ | BO |
| 2026-06-04 | THUNDER dOWNUNDER | 16 Anubis 10-13 | 10 Inferno 3-13 | 26 | L | Under ✓ | BO |
| 2026-05-27 | SemperFi | 8 Dust2 9-13 | 16 Nuke 10-13 | 24 | L | Under ✓ | |
| 2026-05-16 | Lynn Vision | 15 Dust2 13-9 | 10 Nuke 10-13 | 25 | Split | Under ✓ |
