KillsPlayable
Line
27.5
Pick
UNDER
Projection
24.2
Hit
57.2%
EV+
+7.1%
Edge
-3.3
L10
50%
HeadshotsBetter playRisk
Line
9.5
Pick
UNDER
Projection
7.77
Hit
60.1%
EV+
+12.4%
Edge
-1.7
L10
60%
AWPer
aNgelo
LOS NINOS vs Alka
PLAYABLE · UNDER 27.5
≈ L5 25.4 · L20 25.7STAND-IN? · space
Hit rates at 27.5 (Under)
L5
60%
3/5
L10
50%
5/10
L20
56%
10/18
H2H
N/A
Volatility
Low
±5.04
Previous meeting · vs Alka
No meeting with Alka in his last 18 series.
LAN vs online form
LAN
25.5
4/6 hit at 27.5
Online · this match
25.8
6/12 hit at 27.5
Avg kills on Maps 1-2. The learned hit % now leans toward his form in this setting.
Late checks & sources
- Map veto (currently estimated)
- Confirm ANgelo is in the starting five
- Re-check line: PASS at 27
bo3.gg per-map player statsbo3.gg match scheduleWin chance: Polymarket 21.5%
Unverified / missing: Maps 1-2 not confirmed
underdog · Kills · Maps 1-2Playable
What to watch · Stays under with 27 kills or fewer: below 0.703 KPR over ~39 rounds. Main danger: overtime (3.7%) or long close maps add rounds.
Side
Under
Projection
24.2
Raw edge
-3.3
Cons. hit
57.2%
EV+
+7.1%
Rating
6.5/10
Exp. rounds
39.1
Line
27.5
Verdict
Playable
Plain model
57.2%
0 →
Learned
57.2%
what past results change
learning 0x
learning 0x
Same-line track record · Under 25.5-29.5
All players · Kills
44.1%442 picks
This player
0%1 picks
Green = above the 57.7% a 2-pick needs. Graded picks only, pushes left out.
raw 71.9% → −8% haircut · cap 68% · per-leg 1.871x · threshold ±3 (pref ±4)
Clears edge, form, EV+, volatility and every sharp check
Sharp checks · 5/5 active
Big enough sample · 18 recent series (need 8+)
L10 hit rate ≥ 60%off · L10 50.0% at this line
L20 hit rate ≥ 55%off · L20 55.6% at this line
Game script fits · OT 4% (under 22%) · 39.1 exp. rounds (under 47) · team 22% to win (not a 55-64% favourite)
Standard line · Standard payout line
Bo3 series · Maps 1-2 guaranteed
L10 form (4/10 rule) · L10 5/10 at this line · projection 2.6 from his L10 avg
Projection = model only (the replay showed the last-5 blend didn't help)
Evidence & risk
Last 10 series Maps 1-2: avg 26.8 kills vs line 27.5 (5/10 over). KPR 0.70, HS 32%. Next: vs ALKA, Online.
Strongest: L10 average 26.8 against a 27.5 line
- 28% of recent maps were blowouts (13-5 or worse)
- Map veto not confirmed — Maps 1-2 estimated from recent map frequency
The read
Signal
ALIGNED
The call
TAKE UNDER
Value
THIN
- • Model 24.2 vs line 27.5 → -3.3 (-12.0%)
- • Form L5 60% · L10 50% under this line
- • Underdog (≤40%) → −1.0 rounds/map (learned from 24 real matches) · kill rate −5% KPR
- • Expected 39.1 rounds · 2-0 58% · OT 3.7%
Performance (last 36 maps)
Kills/Map
12.86
HS/Map
4.14
K/D
1.03
KPR
0.7
ADR
71.4
KAST
73.8%
HS%
32.2%
Multi-kill
16.9%
Kills projection
Map 1 (Mirage)11.6 · KPR 0.636 · 18.6r
Map 2 (Ancient)12.6 · KPR 0.622 · 20.5r
Required KPR to clear0.703
Base kills (Maps 1-2)24.58
Sweep / blowout / OT adj.-1.54%
Final projected kills24.2
Alka gives up (42 series)-3.5% vs norm
Likely kills totals · Maps 1-2
Bars in colour cash the Under 27.5. Model: 71.9% before the safety haircut.
Lopsided maps35.4%
~20 kills · 33r93.4%
Normal58.2%
~26 kills · 42r61.6%
Close maps2.7%
~26 kills · 42r63.3%
Overtime3.7%
~30 kills · 48r36.3%
Match context
Oct 23, 5:00 PM CTOnline CCT South America 2026 Series 7
Win chance source: Polymarket 21.5%
Underdog (≤40%) → −1.0 rounds/map (learned from 24 real matches) · kill rate −5% KPR
Game scriptUnderdog — team 22% to win; fewer rounds won usually means fewer kills.
M1 Mirage
18.6r
-4% KPR here
M2 Ancient
20.5r
-6% KPR here
Total
39.1r
2-0 sweep58%
Long Map 2 (24+ rounds)6.4%
Overtime3.7%
Blowout (13-5 or worse)35.4%
2-0 sweep is info only — Maps 1-2 are played either way.
Likely maps from his team's recent map frequency: Mirage / Ancient
Recent Maps 1-2 form
10 series · line 27.5 (Under) · avg 26.8 · hit 5/10 · tap a bar
27.5
Nearby lines
| 25.5 Under | 48.6% | below BE |
| 26.5 Under | 54.2% | |
| 27.5 Under | 57.2% | OFFERED |
| 28.5 Under | 62.1% | |
| 29.5 Under | 64.9% |
Break-even per leg: 53.5%
Becomes a PASS at: 27
Line movement
first 27.5→offno change
- Pulled27.5Oct 23, 05:11 PM
- Back on board27.5 → 27.5Oct 23, 05:11 PM
- Pulled27.5Oct 23, 05:10 PM
- First seen27.5Oct 22, 07:00 PM
Map stats
Mirage
11 maps
Kills
12.6
KPR
0.66
HS%
33.8%
K/D
1.05
Ancient
8 maps
Kills
13.8
KPR
0.64
HS%
30.9%
K/D
1.07
Inferno
7 maps
Kills
13.9
KPR
0.65
HS%
36.1%
K/D
1.24
Nuke
5 maps
Kills
13.8
KPR
0.66
HS%
23.2%
K/D
0.95
Anubis
2 maps
Kills
13.5
KPR
0.73
HS%
18.5%
K/D
1.12
Dust2
2 maps
Kills
7.5
KPR
0.43
HS%
66.7%
K/D
0.56
Overpass
1 maps
Kills
6
KPR
0.33
HS%
33.3%
K/D
0.5
Recent Maps 1-2 results
| Date | Opp | Map 1 | Map 2 | Total | Team | Prop | Flags |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-10-21 | Alianza Lima Esports | 14 Ancient 13-8 | 15 Inferno 13-6 | 29 | W | Over ✗ | |
| 2026-10-20 | QUINTESSÊNCIA | 15 Ancient 13-8 | 9 Mirage 6-13 | 24 | Split | Under ✓ | |
| 2026-10-16 | Procyon | 13 Inferno 13-11 | 7 Mirage 1-13 | 20 | Split | Under ✓ | BO |
| 2026-10-13 | Grêmio | 14 Mirage 13-9 | 14 Inferno 5-13 | 28 | Split | Over ✗ | BO |
| 2026-02-27 | paiN Academy | 15 Mirage 11-13 | 11 Dust2 5-13 | 26 | L | Under ✓ | BO |
| 2026-01-24 | Yawara | 12 Mirage 5-13 | 16 Nuke 6-13 | 28 | L | Over ✗ | BO |
| 2026-01-24 | MIBR | 6 Anubis 1-13 | 17 Mirage 9-13 | 23 | L | Under ✓ | BO |
| 2026-01-23 | Fluxo | 18 Mirage 13-4 | 11 Nuke 6-13 | 29 | Split | Over ✗ | BO |
| 2026-01-22 | Yawara | 17 Ancient 13-9 | 5 Mirage 1-13 | 22 | Split | Under ✓ | BO |
| 2026-01-21 | NC | 21 Anubis 13-10 | 18 Ancient 13-4 | 39 | W | Over ✗ | BO |
| 2026-01-21 | Fake do Biru | 15 Mirage 13-8 | 4 Dust2 4-13 | 19 | Split | Under ✓ | BO |
| 2025-08-20 | Sharks | 14 Ancient 12-16 | 16 Nuke 9-13 | 30 | L | Over ✗ | OT |
| 2025-08-19 | Sharks | 12 Inferno 13-6 | 9 Ancient 7-13 | 21 | Split | Under ✓ | |
| 2025-08-18 | 2GAME | 15 Nuke 13-10 | 21 Mirage 13-7 | 36 | W | Over ✗ | |
| 2025-08-14 | Sharks | 19 Inferno 13-10 | 6 Mirage 6-13 | 25 | Split | Under ✓ | |
| 2025-08-13 | Sharks | 11 Nuke 9-13 | 7 Ancient 7-13 | 18 | L | Under ✓ | |
| 2025-08-12 | Sharks | 6 Overpass 13-5 | 11 Inferno 13-10 | 17 | W | Under ✓ | BO |
| 2025-08-04 | Sharks | 13 Inferno 10-13 | 16 Ancient 10-13 | 29 | L | Over ✗ |
