KillsBetter playRisk
Line
29.5
Pick
UNDER
Projection
26.71
Hit
54.5%
EV+
-5.6%
Edge
-2.8
L10
50%
HeadshotsRisk
Line
16.5
Pick
UNDER
Projection
14.98
Hit
49.4%
EV+
-14.5%
Edge
-1.5
L10
30%
Rifler
timo
BESTIA vs Imperial
RISK · UNDER 29.5
≈ L5 30.2 · L20 29.8Risk · Recent form (L5/L10) leans the other wayLAN UNDER · 43% hit
Hit rates at 29.5 (Under)
L5
60%
3/5
L10
50%
5/10
L20
55%
11/20
H2H
67%
2/3
Volatility
Medium
±7.44
Previous meeting · vs Imperial
2/3 hit · avg 26.7 kills on Maps 1-2
2026-10-22 · Circuit X Curitiba 4
Dust2 13-7 · Mirage 13-7 · W
25
Under 29.5 ✓
2026-09-19 · Circuit X Curitiba 3
Mirage 13-10 · Nuke 2-13 · Split
25
Under 29.5 ✓
2026-08-15 · BetBoom Storm 4
Nuke 10-13 · Inferno 13-9 · Split
30
Over 29.5 ✗
LAN vs online form
LAN · this match
31.9
6/11 hit at 29.5
Online
27.1
5/9 hit at 29.5
Avg kills on Maps 1-2. The learned hit % now leans toward his form in this setting.
Late checks & sources
- Map veto (currently estimated)
- Confirm timo is in the starting five
- Re-check line: PASS at 29.5
bo3.gg per-map player statsbo3.gg match scheduleWin chance: Polymarket 36.5%
Unverified / missing: Maps 1-2 not confirmed
prizepicks · Kills · Maps 1-2Risk
What to watch · Stays under with 29 kills or fewer: below 0.736 KPR over ~40 rounds. Main danger: overtime (10%) or long close maps add rounds.
Side
Under
Projection
26.71
Raw edge
-2.8
Cons. hit
54.5%
EV+
-5.6%
Rating
3.5/10
Exp. rounds
40.1
Line
29.5
Verdict
Risk
Plain model
54.5%
0 →
Learned
54.5%
what past results change
learning 0x
learning 0x
Same-line track record · Under 27.5-31.5
All players · Kills
45.4%434 picks
This player
75%4 picks
Green = above the 57.7% a 2-pick needs. Graded picks only, pushes left out.
raw 66.7% → −8% haircut · cap 68% · per-leg 1.732x · threshold ±3 (pref ±4)
- Edge -2.8 below ±3.0 minimum
- Recent form (L5/L10) does not lean the same way
- EV+ not positive at current payout
Sharp checks · 5/5 active
Big enough sample · 20 recent series (need 8+)
L10 hit rate ≥ 60%off · L10 50.0% at this line
L20 hit rate ≥ 55%off · L20 55.0% at this line
Game script fits · OT 10% (under 22%) · 40.1 exp. rounds (under 47) · team 37% to win (not a 55-64% favourite)
Standard line · Standard payout line
Bo3 series · Maps 1-2 guaranteed
L10 form (4/10 rule) · L10 5/10 at this line · projection 5.5 from his L10 avg
Projection = model only (the replay showed the last-5 blend didn't help)
Evidence & risk
Last 10 series Maps 1-2: avg 32.2 kills vs line 29.5 (5/10 over). KPR 0.70, HS 56%. Next: vs Imperial, LAN.
Strongest: L10 average 32.2 against a 29.5 line
Biggest risk: Map veto not confirmed — Maps 1-2 estimated from recent map frequency
- Map veto not confirmed — Maps 1-2 estimated from recent map frequency
The read
Signal
MIXED
The call
PASS
Value
NO VALUE
- • Model 26.71 vs line 29.5 → -2.79 (-9.5%)
- • Form L5 60% · L10 50% under this line
- • Underdog (≤40%) → −1.0 rounds/map (learned from 21 real matches) · kill rate −7% KPR
- • Expected 40.1 rounds · 2-0 57.9% · OT 10%
Performance (last 40 maps)
Kills/Map
14.88
HS/Map
8.35
K/D
1.03
KPR
0.7
ADR
77.5
KAST
71%
HS%
56.1%
Multi-kill
18.5%
Kills projection
Map 1 (Mirage)13.5 · KPR 0.665 · 20.4r
Map 2 (Dust2)13.2 · KPR 0.674 · 19.7r
Required KPR to clear0.736
Base kills (Maps 1-2)26.85
Sweep / blowout / OT adj.-0.53%
Final projected kills26.71
Imperial gives up (59 series)-10.2% vs norm
Likely kills totals · Maps 1-2
Bars in colour cash the Under 29.5. Model: 66.7% before the safety haircut.
Lopsided maps24.1%
~22 kills · 34r86.7%
Normal57.6%
~27 kills · 41r65%
Close maps8.3%
~29 kills · 43r57.5%
Overtime10%
~33 kills · 49r36%
Match context
Oct 24, 4:00 PM CTLANCircuit X Curitiba 4
Win chance source: Polymarket 36.5%
Underdog (≤40%) → −1.0 rounds/map (learned from 21 real matches) · kill rate −7% KPR
Game scriptUnderdog — team 37% to win; fewer rounds won usually means fewer kills.
M1 Mirage
20.4r
+1% KPR here
M2 Dust2
19.7r
+3% KPR here
Total
40.1r
2-0 sweep57.9%
Long Map 2 (24+ rounds)18.3%
Overtime10%
Blowout (13-5 or worse)24.1%
2-0 sweep is info only — Maps 1-2 are played either way.
Likely maps from his team's recent map frequency: Mirage / Dust2
Recent Maps 1-2 form
10 series · line 29.5 (Under) · avg 32.2 · hit 5/10 · tap a bar
29.5
Nearby lines
| 27.5 Under | 44.7% | below BE |
| 28.5 Under | 49.7% | below BE |
| 29.5 Under | 54.5% | OFFERED |
| 30.5 Under | 58.6% | |
| 31.5 Under | 60.3% |
Break-even per leg: 57.7%
Becomes a PASS at: 29.5
Line movement
first 29.5→offno change
- Pulled28.5Oct 24, 04:55 PM
- Back on board28.5 → 28.5Oct 24, 04:54 PM
- Pulled28.5Oct 24, 04:54 PM
- Moved down29.5 → 28.5Oct 24, 01:30 PM
- First seen29.5Oct 24, 12:25 AM
Map stats
Mirage
11 maps
Kills
15.3
KPR
0.71
HS%
57.1%
K/D
1.12
Dust2
9 maps
Kills
14.9
KPR
0.73
HS%
55.2%
K/D
1.1
Cache
7 maps
Kills
13.7
KPR
0.64
HS%
54.2%
K/D
0.85
Inferno
6 maps
Kills
17.3
KPR
0.73
HS%
60.6%
K/D
1.13
Ancient
5 maps
Kills
14.6
KPR
0.7
HS%
47.9%
K/D
1
Nuke
2 maps
Kills
10
KPR
0.53
HS%
70%
K/D
0.69
Recent Maps 1-2 results
| Date | Opp | Map 1 | Map 2 | Total | Team | Prop | Flags |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-10-23 | Galorys | 19 Ancient 13-9 | 16 Inferno 13-11 | 35 | W | Over ✗ | |
| 2026-10-22 | Imperial | 13 Dust2 13-7 | 12 Mirage 13-7 | 25 | W | Under ✓ | |
| 2026-10-22 | ShindeN | 15 Dust2 7-13 | 13 Cache 13-5 | 28 | Split | Under ✓ | BO |
| 2026-09-26 | Voca | 20 Ancient 10-13 | 14 Mirage 10-13 | 34 | L | Over ✗ | |
| 2026-09-25 | M80 | 16 Mirage 6-13 | 13 Cache 6-13 | 29 | L | Under ✓ | |
| 2026-09-20 | Bounty Hunters | 23 Cache 16-14 | 22 Mirage 19-16 | 45 | W | Over ✗ | OT |
| 2026-09-19 | ShindeN | 13 Mirage 16-13 | 33 Inferno 22-19 | 46 | W | Over ✗ | OT |
| 2026-09-19 | Imperial | 16 Mirage 13-10 | 9 Nuke 2-13 | 25 | Split | Under ✓ | BO |
| 2026-09-18 | CLANSBR | 16 Ancient 13-7 | 14 Mirage 13-2 | 30 | W | Over ✗ | BO |
| 2026-09-17 | Galorys | 14 Ancient 10-13 | 11 Dust2 7-13 | 25 | L | Under ✓ | |
| 2026-09-17 | CLANSBR | 11 Inferno 13-3 | 18 Mirage 13-2 | 29 | W | Under ✓ | BO |
| 2026-09-10 | Virtus.pro | 8 Mirage 4-13 | 13 Dust2 7-13 | 21 | L | Under ✓ | BO |
| 2026-09-09 | HEROIC | 9 Cache 7-13 | 4 Ancient 4-13 | 13 | L | Under ✓ | BO |
| 2026-08-15 | Imperial | 11 Nuke 10-13 | 19 Inferno 13-9 | 30 | Split | Over ✗ | |
| 2026-08-14 | ALKA | 14 Cache 8-13 | 26 Dust2 13-8 | 40 | Split | Over ✗ | |
| 2026-08-09 | Isurus | 11 Cache 7-13 | 12 Dust2 13-7 | 23 | Split | Under ✓ | |
| 2026-08-07 | Yawara | 16 Mirage 8-13 | 10 Dust2 9-13 | 26 | L | Under ✓ | |
| 2026-08-05 | Grêmio | 7 Inferno 13-6 | 18 Dust2 13-7 | 25 | W | Under ✓ | |
| 2026-08-04 | METANOIA Wolves | 16 Dust2 13-8 | 19 Mirage 13-5 | 35 | W | Over ✗ | BO |
| 2026-08-02 | MIBR | 13 Cache 9-13 | 18 Inferno 8-13 | 31 | L | Over ✗ |
