KillsNeutral
Line
34
Pick
UNDER
Projection
30.43
Hit
55.9%
EV+
-3.2%
Edge
-3.6
L10
50%
HeadshotsBetter playRisk
Line
12.5
Pick
UNDER
Projection
11.05
Hit
57.1%
EV+
-1.2%
Edge
-1.4
L10
50%
AWPer
chelleos
Rooster vs Abyssal
NEUTRAL · UNDER 34
▼ L5 26.8 · L20 31.9LAN UNDER · 52% hit
Hit rates at 34 (Under)
L5
60%
3/5
L10
50%
5/10
L20
55%
11/20
H2H
100%
1/1
Volatility
High
Previous meeting · vs Abyssal
1/1 hit · avg 31 kills on Maps 1-2
2026-08-10 · DFRAG Open Series 6
Mirage 2-13 · Dust2 6-13 · L
31
Under 34 ✓
LAN vs online form
LAN · this match
25.2
4/6 hit at 34
Online
34.9
7/14 hit at 34
Avg kills on Maps 1-2.
Late checks & sources
- Veto confirmed — re-check map order
- Confirm chelleos is in the starting five
- Re-check line: PASS at —
bo3.gg per-map player statsbo3.gg match scheduleWin chance: Polymarket 44.0%
prizepicks · Kills · Maps 1-2Neutral
What to watch · Stays under with 33 kills or fewer: across ~41 rounds. Main danger: overtime (10%) or long close maps add rounds.
Side
Under
Projection
30.43
Raw edge
-3.6
Cons. hit
55.9%
EV+
-3.2%
Exp. rounds
40.8
Line
34
Verdict
Neutral
Same-line track record · Under 32-36
All players · Kills
51.1%90 picks
This player
100%2 picks
Green = above the 57.7% a 2-pick needs. Graded picks only, pushes left out.
Evidence & risk
Last 10 series Maps 1-2: avg 32.4 kills vs line 34.0 (5/10 over). Next: vs Abyssal, LAN.
Strongest: L10 average 32.4 against a 34.0 line
Biggest risk: Short maps lately — 19.7 rounds per map for these teams
- Short maps lately — 19.7 rounds per map for these teams
- 38% of recent maps were blowouts (13-5 or worse)
The read
Signal
ALIGNED
The call
PASS
Value
NO VALUE
- • Model 30.43 vs line 34 → -3.57 (-10.5%)
- • Form L5 60% · L10 50% under this line
- • Expected 40.8 rounds · 2-0 57.3% · OT 10%
Performance (last 40 maps)
Kills/Map
15.97
HS/Map
5.8
K/D
1.2
ADR
86.8
KAST
72.9%
Multi-kill
20.3%
Kills projection
Match context
Oct 26, 10:00 PM CTLANDFRAG Invitational 2026
Win chance source: Polymarket 44.0%
M1 Inferno
20.9r
M2 Mirage
19.9r
Total
40.8r
2-0 sweep57.3%
Long Map 2 (24+ rounds)26.7%
Overtime10%
Blowout (13-5 or worse)38.8%
2-0 sweep is info only — Maps 1-2 are played either way. Sweep from win chance + his team's 2-0 rate + opponent's 2-0 rate + market. Rounds & blowout from 40 his-team maps + 24 opponent maps + 2 past-meeting maps.
Veto confirmed (HLTV): Inferno / Mirage
Recent Maps 1-2 form
10 series · line 34 (Under) · avg 32.4 · hit 5/10 · tap a bar
34
Line movement
first 34→offno change
- Pulled34Oct 26, 10:02 PM
- Back on board34 → 34Oct 26, 10:01 PM
- Pulled34Oct 26, 10:00 PM
- First seen34Oct 26, 07:00 PM
Map stats
Anubis
10 maps
Kills
15.7
K/D
1.25
Nuke
9 maps
Kills
14.8
K/D
1.05
Inferno
7 maps
Kills
13.3
K/D
0.92
Mirage
5 maps
Kills
17.4
K/D
1.38
Cache
5 maps
Kills
17.4
K/D
1.23
Dust2
4 maps
Kills
20.5
K/D
1.86
Recent Maps 1-2 results
| Date | Opp | Map 1 | Map 2 | Total | Team | Prop | Flags |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-10-17 | Off Chops | 13 Nuke 7-13 | 5 Cache 2-13 | 18 | L | Under ✓ | BO |
| 2026-10-17 | FlyQuest | 5 Anubis 1-13 | 10 Inferno 6-13 | 15 | L | Under ✓ | BO |
| 2026-10-15 | Mindfreak | 28 Cache 19-17 | 14 Mirage 13-4 | 42 | W | Over ✗ | OTBO |
| 2026-10-15 | NEXVOID | 14 Anubis 9-13 | 10 Inferno 4-13 | 24 | L | Under ✓ | BO |
| 2026-10-14 | MARKandLARRY | 14 Mirage 13-9 | 21 Cache 13-5 | 35 | W | Over ✗ | BO |
| 2026-09-27 | Ground Zero | 19 Anubis 13-6 | 21 Nuke 11-13 | 40 | Split | Over ✗ | |
| 2026-09-25 | FlyQuest | 23 Anubis 8-13 | 7 Nuke 3-13 | 30 | L | Under ✓ | BO |
| 2026-09-23 | Mindfreak | 22 Nuke 13-9 | 13 Cache 13-1 | 35 | W | Over ✗ | BO |
| 2026-08-30 | Arcade | 25 Nuke 13-7 | 7 Inferno 3-13 | 32 | Split | Under ✓ | BO |
| 2026-08-29 | MARKandLARRY | 28 Dust2 12-16 | 25 Mirage 13-11 | 53 | Split | Over ✗ | OT |
| 2026-08-28 | Ground Zero | 13 Anubis 4-13 | 16 Nuke 15-19 | 29 | L | Under ✓ | OTBO |
| 2026-08-26 | MARKandLARRY | 11 Inferno 13-2 | 17 Anubis 13-4 | 28 | W | Under ✓ | BO |
| 2026-08-11 | Mindfreak | 25 Inferno 9-13 | 21 Anubis 13-6 | 46 | Split | Over ✗ | |
| 2026-08-10 | Abyssal | 13 Mirage 2-13 | 18 Dust2 6-13 | 31 | L | Under ✓ | BO |
| 2026-08-04 | FURY | 21 Mirage 13-9 | 20 Cache 13-9 | 41 | W | Over ✗ | |
| 2026-08-03 | Finishers | 25 Dust2 13-4 | 13 Anubis 13-0 | 38 | W | Over ✗ | BO |
| 2026-07-17 | Mindfreak | 18 Nuke 9-13 | 20 Inferno 14-16 | 38 | L | Over ✗ | OT |
| 2026-07-17 | THUNDER dOWNUNDER | 4 Nuke 0-13 | 10 Anubis 4-13 | 14 | L | Under ✓ | BO |
| 2026-06-18 | Ground Zero | 7 Nuke 2-13 | 22 Anubis 13-11 | 29 | Split | Under ✓ | BO |
| 2026-06-17 | DXA | 10 Inferno 1-13 | 11 Dust2 13-8 | 21 | Split | Under ✓ | BO |
