KillsBetter playPlayable
Line
27.5
Pick
OVER
Projection
31.3
Hit
63.5%
EV+
+10.0%
Edge
+3.8
L10
70%
HeadshotsTake
Line
16
Pick
OVER
Projection
18.97
Hit
62.4%
EV+
+8.1%
Edge
+3.0
L10
50%
Rifler
rdnzao
DENDELE vs Nemiga
PLAYABLE · OVER 27.5
BEST OVER · PP 27.5PP27.5UD28.5
▲ L5 34.4 · L20 29.4
Hit rates at 27.5 (Over)
L5
80%
4/5
L10
70%
7/10
L20
67%
12/18
H2H
N/A
Volatility
Low
±5.97
Previous meeting · vs Nemiga
No meeting with Nemiga in his last 18 series.
LAN vs online form
LAN · this match
30.3
10/15 hit at 27.5
Online
25.3
2/3 hit at 27.5
Avg kills on Maps 1-2. The learned hit % now leans toward his form in this setting.
Late checks & sources
- Map veto (currently estimated)
- Confirm rdnzao is in the starting five
- Re-check line: PASS at 28.5
bo3.gg per-map player statsbo3.gg match scheduleWin chance: Polymarket 41.5%
Unverified / missing: Maps 1-2 not confirmed
prizepicks · Kills · Maps 1-2Playable
What to watch · Needs 28+ kills: 0.61 KPR over ~45 rounds. Main danger: a fast 2-0 (56.1%) or blowout (22.3%) cuts rounds.
Side
Over
Projection
31.3
Raw edge
+3.8
Cons. hit
63.5%
EV+
+10.0%
Rating
9.2/10
Exp. rounds
45.1
Line
27.5
Verdict
Playable
Plain model
63.5%
0 →
Learned
63.5%
what past results change
learning 0x
learning 0x
Same-line track record · Over 25.5-29.5
All players · Kills
57.2%477 picks
This player
100%3 picks
Green = above the 57.7% a 2-pick needs. Graded picks only, pushes left out.
raw 73.8% → −8% haircut · cap 68% · per-leg 1.732x · threshold ±3 (pref ±4)
Clears edge, form, EV+, volatility and every sharp check
Sharp checks · 5/5 active
Big enough sample · 18 recent series (need 8+)
L10 hit rate ≥ 60%off · L10 70.0% at this line
L20 hit rate ≥ 55%off · L20 66.7% at this line
Game script fits · 45.1 exp. rounds (need 38+) · blowout 22% (under 40%) · team 41% to win (20%+)
Standard line · Standard payout line
Bo3 series · Maps 1-2 guaranteed
L10 form (4/10 rule) · L10 7/10 at this line · projection 0.3 from his L10 avg
Projection = model only (the replay showed the last-5 blend didn't help)
Evidence & risk
Last 10 series Maps 1-2: avg 31.0 kills vs line 27.5 (7/10 over). KPR 0.68, HS 61%. Next: vs Nemiga, LAN.
Strongest: L10 average 31.0 against a 27.5 line
Biggest risk: Map veto not confirmed — Maps 1-2 estimated from recent map frequency
- Map veto not confirmed — Maps 1-2 estimated from recent map frequency
The read
Signal
ALIGNED
The call
TAKE OVER
Value
VALUE
- • Model 31.3 vs line 27.5 → +3.8 (13.8%)
- • Form L5 80% · L10 70% over this line
- • Slight lean (40–45% / 65–70%) → ±0.0 rounds/map (learned from 10 real matches) · kill rate −2% KPR
- • Expected 45.1 rounds · 2-0 56.1% · OT 15.9%
Performance (last 36 maps)
Kills/Map
14.72
HS/Map
8.92
K/D
0.97
KPR
0.68
ADR
75.4
KAST
72.3%
HS%
60.6%
Multi-kill
15.9%
Kills projection
Map 1 (Mirage)17.1 · KPR 0.684 · 25r
Map 2 (Cache)14.2 · KPR 0.703 · 20.1r
Required KPR to clear0.61
Base kills (Maps 1-2)31.22
Sweep / blowout / OT adj.+0.25%
Final projected kills31.3
Nemiga gives up (70 series)-1.5% vs norm
Likely kills totals · Maps 1-2
Bars in colour cash the Over 27.5. Model: 73.8% before the safety haircut.
Lopsided maps22.3%
~26 kills · 38r39.6%
Normal44.1%
~31 kills · 44r70.3%
Close maps17.7%
~34 kills · 48r84.4%
Overtime15.9%
~38 kills · 54r95.3%
Match context
Oct 27, 6:00 AM CTLANPGL Masters Bucharest 2026
Win chance source: Polymarket 40.5% · live
Slight lean (40–45% / 65–70%) → ±0.0 rounds/map (learned from 10 real matches) · kill rate −2% KPR
Game scriptIdeal Over range — team 41% to win (40-70%), competitive maps expected.
M1 Mirage
25r
+3% KPR here
M2 Cache
20.1r
+6% KPR here
Total
45.1r
2-0 sweep56.1%
Long Map 2 (24+ rounds)33.6%
Overtime15.9%
Blowout (13-5 or worse)22.3%
2-0 sweep is info only — Maps 1-2 are played either way. Sweep from win chance + his team's 2-0 rate + opponent's 2-0 rate + market. Rounds & blowout from 36 his-team maps + 30 opponent maps + 0 past-meeting maps.
Likely maps from his team's recent map frequency: Mirage / Cache
Recent Maps 1-2 form
10 series · line 27.5 (Over) · avg 31.0 · hit 7/10 · tap a bar
27.5
Nearby lines
| 25.5 Over | 66.3% | |
| 26.5 Over | 65.3% | |
| 27.5 Over | 63.5% | OFFERED |
| 28.5 Over | 61.8% | |
| 29.5 Over | 57.9% |
Break-even per leg: 57.7%
Becomes a PASS at: 28.5
Line movement
first 27.5→27.5no change
- First seen27.5Oct 26, 07:00 PM
Map stats
Mirage
9 maps
Kills
17.2
KPR
0.7
HS%
58.7%
K/D
1.1
Cache
8 maps
Kills
14.1
KPR
0.73
HS%
68.1%
K/D
1
Ancient
6 maps
Kills
14.3
KPR
0.59
HS%
59.3%
K/D
0.82
Nuke
5 maps
Kills
11
KPR
0.61
HS%
56.4%
K/D
0.85
Inferno
5 maps
Kills
15.4
KPR
0.64
HS%
54.5%
K/D
0.91
Anubis
3 maps
Kills
14.7
KPR
0.72
HS%
65.9%
K/D
1.22
Recent Maps 1-2 results
| Date | Opp | Map 1 | Map 2 | Total | Team | Prop | Flags |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-10-26 | G2 | 16 Nuke 13-5 | 21 Ancient 14-16 | 37 | Split | Over ✓ | OTBO |
| 2026-10-25 | Legacy | 17 Cache 9-13 | 26 Mirage 17-19 | 43 | L | Over ✓ | OT |
| 2026-10-24 | FURIA | 15 Ancient 8-13 | 12 Inferno 11-13 | 27 | L | Under ✗ | |
| 2026-10-11 | Wildcard | 19 Mirage 13-4 | 13 Nuke 8-13 | 32 | Split | Over ✓ | BO |
| 2026-10-11 | Imperial | 19 Mirage 13-8 | 14 Inferno 13-11 | 33 | W | Over ✓ | |
| 2026-10-10 | Wildcard | 20 Mirage 13-16 | 10 Cache 3-13 | 30 | L | Over ✓ | OTBO |
| 2026-09-27 | M80 | 12 Inferno 13-7 | 17 Anubis 9-13 | 29 | Split | Over ✓ | |
| 2026-09-26 | Wildcard | 7 Mirage 13-11 | 13 Nuke 10-13 | 20 | Split | Under ✗ | |
| 2026-09-26 | M80 | 16 Mirage 13-9 | 17 Ancient 16-13 | 33 | W | Over ✓ | OT |
| 2026-09-25 | Voca | 7 Ancient 13-7 | 19 Cache 13-7 | 26 | W | Under ✗ | |
| 2026-09-02 | Color | 13 Mirage 8-13 | 17 Cache 13-6 | 30 | Split | Over ✓ | |
| 2026-09-02 | EYEBALLERS | 16 Ancient 11-13 | 14 Cache 13-3 | 30 | Split | Over ✓ | BO |
| 2026-08-28 | Aurora | 13 Cache 7-13 | 24 Mirage 12-16 | 37 | L | Over ✓ | OT |
| 2026-08-26 | Spirit | 10 Ancient 8-13 | 7 Cache 7-13 | 17 | L | Under ✗ | |
| 2026-08-09 | JiJieHao | 24 Inferno 14-16 | 16 Cache 13-9 | 40 | Split | Over ✓ | OT |
| 2026-08-07 | SAW | 15 Inferno 13-10 | 14 Anubis 13-10 | 29 | W | Over ✓ | |
| 2026-08-07 | QueenConso | 8 Nuke 13-0 | 13 Anubis 13-3 | 21 | W | Under ✗ | BO |
| 2026-07-25 | FaZe | 5 Nuke 2-13 | 11 Mirage 13-10 | 16 | Split | Under ✗ | BO |
