KillsBetter playRisk
Line
32.5
Pick
UNDER
Projection
31.24
Hit
50.7%
EV+
-5.2%
Edge
-1.3
L10
70%
HeadshotsRisk
Line
21.5
Pick
UNDER
Projection
21.12
Hit
48.3%
EV+
-9.7%
Edge
-0.4
L10
60%
Rifler
yiksrezo
ex-RUSTEC vs ex-Zero Tenacity
RISK · UNDER 21.5
▲ L5 24.6 · L20 20.6Risk · Edge -0.4 far below ±2.0 +1
Hit rates at 21.5 (Under)
L5
40%
2/5
L10
60%
6/10
L20
65%
13/20
H2H
N/A
Volatility
High
±7.29
Previous meeting · vs ex-Zero Tenacity
No meeting with ex-Zero Tenacity in his last 20 series.
LAN vs online form
LAN
—
no series
Online · this match
20.6
13/20 hit at 21.5
Avg headshots on Maps 1-2. The learned hit % now leans toward his form in this setting.
Late checks & sources
- Map veto (currently estimated)
- Confirm yiksrezo is in the starting five
- Re-check line: PASS at 21.5
bo3.gg per-map player statsbo3.gg match schedule
Unverified / missing: Maps 1-2 not confirmed
underdog · Headshots · Maps 1-2Risk
What to watch · Stays under with 21 HS or fewer (under ~33 kills at 67.6% HS): below 0.735 KPR over ~43 rounds. Main danger: overtime (7.8%) or long close maps add rounds.
Side
Under
Projection
21.12
Raw edge
-0.4
Cons. hit
48.3%
EV+
-9.7%
Rating
1/10
Exp. rounds
43.3
Line
21.5
Verdict
Risk
Plain model
48.3%
0 →
Learned
48.3%
what past results change
learning 0x
learning 0x
Same-line track record · Under 19.5-23.5
All players · Headshots
55.6%45 picks
This player
0%1 picks
Green = above the 57.7% a 2-pick needs. Graded picks only, pushes left out.
raw 52.1% → −8% haircut · cap 68% · per-leg 1.871x · threshold ±2 (pref ±2.5)
- Edge -0.4 below ±2.0 minimum
- EV+ not positive at current payout
- High form volatility
Sharp checks · 5/5 active
Big enough sample · 20 recent series (need 8+)
L10 hit rate ≥ 60%off · L10 60.0% at this line
L20 hit rate ≥ 55%off · L20 65.0% at this line
Game script fits · OT 8% (under 22%) · 43.3 exp. rounds (under 47)
Standard line · Standard payout line
Bo3 series · Maps 1-2 guaranteed
L10 form (4/10 rule) · L10 6/10 at this line · projection 0.8 from his L10 avg
Projection = model only (the replay showed the last-5 blend didn't help)
Evidence & risk
Last 10 series Maps 1-2: avg 20.3 headshots vs line 21.5 (4/10 over). KPR 0.75, HS 68%. Next: vs ex-Zero Tenacity, LAN/Online unknown.
Strongest: L10 average 20.3 against a 21.5 line
Biggest risk: Map veto not confirmed — Maps 1-2 estimated from recent map frequency
- Map veto not confirmed — Maps 1-2 estimated from recent map frequency
The read
Signal
MIXED
The call
PASS
Value
NO VALUE
- • Model 21.12 vs line 21.5 → -0.38 (-1.8%)
- • Form L5 40% · L10 60% under this line
- • Win chance unknown — no favourite adjustment
- • Expected 43.3 rounds · 2-0 49.1% · OT 7.8%
Performance (last 40 maps)
Kills/Map
15.28
HS/Map
10.32
K/D
1.02
KPR
0.75
ADR
81.5
KAST
71.8%
HS%
67.6%
Multi-kill
19.7%
Kills projection
Map 1 (Nuke)10.4 · KPR 0.702 · 22r
Map 2 (Dust2)10.7 · KPR 0.75 · 21.3r
Required KPR to clear0.735
Base kills (Maps 1-2)31.42
Sweep / blowout / OT adj.-0.55%
Final projected kills31.24
× realistic HS% (67.6%)21.12
ex-Zero Tenacity gives up (62 series)-4.4% vs norm
Likely HS totals · Maps 1-2
Bars in colour cash the Under 21.5. Model: 52.1% before the safety haircut.
Lopsided maps22.2%
~18 HS · 36r74.2%
Normal55.3%
~22 HS · 44r53.6%
Close maps14.7%
~23 HS · 46r47.2%
Overtime7.8%
~26 HS · 52r32%
Match context
Oct 23, 3:00 AM CTOnline
Win chance source: —
Win chance unknown — no favourite adjustment
M1 Nuke
22r
-6% KPR here
M2 Dust2
21.3r
Total
43.3r
2-0 sweep49.1%
Long Map 2 (24+ rounds)22.5%
Overtime7.8%
Blowout (13-5 or worse)22.2%
2-0 sweep is info only — Maps 1-2 are played either way.
Likely maps from his team's recent map frequency: Nuke / Dust2
Recent Maps 1-2 form
10 series · line 21.5 (Under) · avg 20.3 · hit 6/10 · tap a bar
21.5
Nearby lines
| 19.5 Under | 39.8% | below BE |
| 20.5 Under | 45% | below BE |
| 21.5 Under | 48.3% | OFFERED |
| 22.5 Under | 53.5% | |
| 23.5 Under | 56.4% |
Break-even per leg: 53.5%
Becomes a PASS at: 21.5
Line movement
first 21.5→offno change
- Pulled21.5Oct 23, 03:17 AM
- First seen21.5Oct 22, 12:02 PM
Map stats
Dust2
10 maps
Kills
15.9
KPR
0.75
HS%
68.6%
K/D
1.2
Nuke
10 maps
Kills
15.2
KPR
0.69
HS%
65.8%
K/D
0.94
Ancient
6 maps
Kills
17.5
KPR
0.9
HS%
63.8%
K/D
1.35
Mirage
5 maps
Kills
12.6
KPR
0.59
HS%
69.8%
K/D
0.78
Anubis
5 maps
Kills
18
KPR
0.77
HS%
78.9%
K/D
1.1
Inferno
2 maps
Kills
11.5
KPR
0.5
HS%
52.2%
K/D
0.62
Cache
2 maps
Kills
9.5
KPR
0.49
HS%
52.6%
K/D
0.73
Recent Maps 1-2 results
| Date | Opp | Map 1 | Map 2 | Total | Team | Prop | Flags |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-10-20 | mellren | 18 Nuke 13-11 | 17 Ancient 13-10 | 35 | W | Over ✗ | |
| 2026-10-20 | Metizport | 8 Anubis 7-13 | 9 Nuke 9-13 | 17 | L | Under ✓ | |
| 2026-10-18 | Illyrians | 11 Anubis 13-6 | 15 Ancient 13-7 | 26 | W | Over ✗ | |
| 2026-10-18 | Butterfly | 14 Dust2 16-13 | 14 Nuke 11-13 | 28 | Split | Over ✗ | OT |
| 2026-10-16 | Saint Sinners | 8 Dust2 11-13 | 9 Nuke 13-8 | 17 | Split | Under ✓ | |
| 2026-10-14 | mellren | 8 Ancient 8-13 | 5 Cache 13-3 | 13 | Split | Under ✓ | BO |
| 2026-09-27 | Black Phoenix | 6 Dust2 7-13 | 3 Anubis 6-13 | 9 | L | Under ✓ | |
| 2026-09-27 | Iberian Soul | 8 Ancient 13-5 | 14 Mirage 13-4 | 22 | W | Over ✗ | BO |
| 2026-09-26 | ENCE | 9 Dust2 13-1 | 7 Mirage 13-4 | 16 | W | Under ✓ | BO |
| 2026-09-25 | Omega | 12 Nuke 13-11 | 8 Dust2 7-13 | 20 | Split | Under ✓ | |
| 2026-09-24 | CYBERSHOKE | 6 Ancient 6-13 | 11 Nuke 9-13 | 17 | L | Under ✓ | |
| 2026-09-24 | Black Phoenix | 13 Ancient 13-3 | 8 Inferno 9-13 | 21 | Split | Under ✓ | BO |
| 2026-09-22 | Leo | 7 Nuke 13-10 | 15 Dust2 13-10 | 22 | W | Over ✗ | |
| 2026-09-22 | Drama | 8 Nuke 13-11 | 12 Dust2 10-13 | 20 | Split | Under ✓ | |
| 2026-09-20 | Azuolas | 15 Mirage 16-19 | 18 Anubis 13-11 | 33 | Split | Over ✗ | OT |
| 2026-09-19 | PCIFIC | 4 Nuke 13-8 | 31 Anubis 19-16 | 35 | W | Over ✗ | OT |
| 2026-09-18 | BAKS | 15 Dust2 13-7 | 5 Cache 10-13 | 20 | Split | Under ✓ | |
| 2026-09-18 | NAVI Junior | 4 Mirage 4-13 | 9 Dust2 13-4 | 13 | Split | Under ✓ | BO |
| 2026-09-17 | Black Phoenix | 8 Nuke 3-13 | 4 Inferno 13-11 | 12 | Split | Under ✓ | BO |
| 2026-09-16 | Nexus | 13 Dust2 13-9 | 4 Mirage 8-13 | 17 | Split | Under ✓ |
