KillsRisk
Line
27.5
Pick
UNDER
Projection
24.63
Hit
48.8%
EV+
-15.5%
Edge
-2.9
L10
40%
HeadshotsBetter playRisk
Line
14.5
Pick
UNDER
Projection
12.96
Hit
51.9%
EV+
-10.1%
Edge
-1.5
L10
50%
Rifler
koala
DENDELE vs FURIA
RISK · UNDER 14.5
SAME LINE ON ALL APPSPP14.5UD14.5
▲ L5 16.8 · L20 15.4Risk · Recent form (L5/L10) leans the other wayLAN UNDER · 43% hit
Hit rates at 14.5 (Under)
L5
40%
2/5
L10
50%
5/10
L20
50%
9/18
H2H
100%
1/1
Volatility
Medium
±5.25
Previous meeting · vs FURIA
1/1 hit · avg 11 headshots on Maps 1-2
2026-07-24 · BLAST Bounty Summer 2026: Closed Qualifier
Anubis 13-6 · Mirage 6-13 · Split
11
Under 14.5 ✓
LAN vs online form
LAN · this match
17
4/12 hit at 14.5
Online
12.2
5/6 hit at 14.5
Avg headshots on Maps 1-2. The learned hit % now leans toward his form in this setting.
Late checks & sources
- Map veto (currently estimated)
- Confirm koala is in the starting five
- Re-check line: PASS at 14.5
bo3.gg per-map player statsbo3.gg match scheduleWin chance: Polymarket 18.5%
Unverified / missing: Maps 1-2 not confirmed
prizepicks · Headshots · Maps 1-2Risk
What to watch · Stays under with 14 HS or fewer (under ~29 kills at 52.6% HS): below 0.679 KPR over ~41 rounds. Main danger: overtime (11%) or long close maps add rounds.
Side
Under
Projection
12.96
Raw edge
-1.5
Cons. hit
51.9%
EV+
-10.1%
Rating
1.4/10
Exp. rounds
40.6
Line
14.5
Verdict
Risk
Plain model
51.9%
0 →
Learned
51.9%
what past results change
learning 0x
learning 0x
Same-line track record · Under 12.5-16.5
All players · Headshots
41%427 picks
This player
33.3%3 picks
Green = above the 57.7% a 2-pick needs. Graded picks only, pushes left out.
raw 61.6% → −8% haircut · cap 68% · per-leg 1.732x · threshold ±2 (pref ±2.5)
- Edge -1.5 below ±2.0 minimum
- Recent form (L5/L10) does not lean the same way
- EV+ not positive at current payout
Sharp checks · 5/5 active
Big enough sample · 18 recent series (need 8+)
L10 hit rate ≥ 60%off · L10 50.0% at this line
L20 hit rate ≥ 55%off · L20 50.0% at this line
Game script fits · OT 11% (under 22%) · 40.6 exp. rounds (under 47) · team 19% to win (not a 55-64% favourite)
Standard line · Standard payout line
Bo3 series · Maps 1-2 guaranteed
L10 form (4/10 rule) · L10 5/10 at this line · projection 3.2 from his L10 avg
Projection = model only (the replay showed the last-5 blend didn't help)
Evidence & risk
Last 10 series Maps 1-2: avg 16.2 headshots vs line 13.5 (6/10 over). KPR 0.68, HS 53%. Next: vs FURIA, LAN.
Strongest: L10 average 16.2 against a 13.5 line
- Map veto not confirmed — Maps 1-2 estimated from recent map frequency
The read
Signal
MIXED
The call
PASS
Value
NO VALUE
- • Model 12.96 vs line 14.5 → -1.54 (-10.6%)
- • Form L5 40% · L10 50% under this line
- • Underdog (≤40%) → −1.0 rounds/map (learned from 28 real matches) · kill rate −4% KPR
- • Expected 40.6 rounds · 2-0 58.1% · OT 11%
Performance (last 36 maps)
Kills/Map
14.64
HS/Map
7.69
K/D
1.1
KPR
0.68
ADR
75.9
KAST
72.6%
HS%
52.6%
Multi-kill
15.6%
Kills projection
Map 1 (Mirage)6.9 · KPR 0.616 · 21.4r
Map 2 (Cache)6.1 · KPR 0.603 · 19.2r
Required KPR to clear0.679
Base kills (Maps 1-2)24.76
Sweep / blowout / OT adj.-0.49%
Final projected kills24.63
× realistic HS% (52.6%)12.96
FURIA gives up (117 series)-8.4% vs norm
Likely HS totals · Maps 1-2
Bars in colour cash the Under 14.5. Model: 61.6% before the safety haircut.
Lopsided maps26.5%
~11 HS · 34r79.7%
Normal53.5%
~13 HS · 42r63.1%
Close maps9%
~14 HS · 43r58.5%
Overtime11%
~16 HS · 49r44.2%
Match context
Oct 24, 11:00 AM CTLANPGL Masters Bucharest 2026
Win chance source: Polymarket 18.5%
Underdog (≤40%) → −1.0 rounds/map (learned from 28 real matches) · kill rate −4% KPR
Game scriptUnderdog — team 19% to win; fewer rounds won usually means fewer kills.
M1 Mirage
21.4r
-6% KPR here
M2 Cache
19.2r
-8% KPR here
Total
40.6r
2-0 sweep58.1%
Long Map 2 (24+ rounds)20%
Overtime11%
Blowout (13-5 or worse)26.5%
2-0 sweep is info only — Maps 1-2 are played either way.
Likely maps from his team's recent map frequency: Mirage / Cache
Recent Maps 1-2 form
10 series · line 14.5 (Under) · avg 16.2 · hit 5/10 · tap a bar
14.5
Nearby lines
| 12.5 Under | 41.1% | below BE |
| 13.5 Under | 45.6% | below BE |
| 14.5 Under | 51.9% | OFFERED |
| 15.5 Under | 55.9% | below BE |
| 16.5 Under | 59% |
Break-even per leg: 57.7%
Becomes a PASS at: 14.5
Line movement
first 13.5→14.5+1
- Back on board14.5 → 14.5Oct 24, 05:16 PM
- Pulled14.5Oct 24, 05:15 PM
- Back on board13.5 → 14.5Oct 24, 05:15 PM
- Pulled13.5Oct 24, 11:10 AM
- First seen13.5Oct 23, 07:00 PM
Map stats
Mirage
10 maps
Kills
14.2
KPR
0.63
HS%
48.6%
K/D
1.1
Cache
9 maps
Kills
12
KPR
0.61
HS%
50.9%
K/D
0.96
Nuke
5 maps
Kills
12.2
KPR
0.66
HS%
60.7%
K/D
1
Inferno
4 maps
Kills
22.2
KPR
0.92
HS%
53.9%
K/D
1.48
Ancient
4 maps
Kills
20.8
KPR
0.88
HS%
51.8%
K/D
1.32
Anubis
4 maps
Kills
11
KPR
0.55
HS%
56.8%
K/D
0.81
Recent Maps 1-2 results
| Date | Opp | Map 1 | Map 2 | Total | Team | Prop | Flags |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-10-11 | Wildcard | 3 Mirage 13-4 | 6 Nuke 8-13 | 9 | Split | Under ✓ | BO |
| 2026-10-11 | Imperial | 8 Mirage 13-8 | 13 Inferno 13-11 | 21 | W | Over ✗ | |
| 2026-10-10 | Wildcard | 7 Mirage 13-16 | 3 Cache 3-13 | 10 | L | Under ✓ | OTBO |
| 2026-09-27 | M80 | 17 Inferno 13-7 | 8 Anubis 9-13 | 25 | Split | Over ✗ | |
| 2026-09-26 | Wildcard | 11 Mirage 13-11 | 8 Nuke 10-13 | 19 | Split | Over ✗ | |
| 2026-09-26 | M80 | 8 Mirage 13-9 | 14 Ancient 16-13 | 22 | W | Over ✗ | OT |
| 2026-09-25 | Voca | 11 Ancient 13-7 | 7 Cache 13-7 | 18 | W | Over ✗ | |
| 2026-09-02 | Color | 8 Mirage 8-13 | 4 Cache 13-6 | 12 | Split | Under ✓ | |
| 2026-09-02 | EYEBALLERS | 7 Ancient 11-13 | 7 Cache 13-3 | 14 | Split | Under ✓ | BO |
| 2026-08-28 | Aurora | 8 Cache 7-13 | 4 Mirage 12-16 | 12 | L | Under ✓ | OT |
| 2026-08-26 | Spirit | 11 Ancient 8-13 | 8 Cache 7-13 | 19 | L | Over ✗ | |
| 2026-08-09 | JiJieHao | 11 Inferno 14-16 | 9 Cache 13-9 | 20 | Split | Over ✗ | OT |
| 2026-08-07 | SAW | 7 Inferno 13-10 | 11 Anubis 13-10 | 18 | W | Over ✗ | |
| 2026-08-07 | QueenConso | 9 Nuke 13-0 | 2 Anubis 13-3 | 11 | W | Under ✓ | BO |
| 2026-07-25 | FaZe | 5 Nuke 2-13 | 7 Mirage 13-10 | 12 | Split | Under ✓ | BO |
| 2026-07-24 | FURIA | 4 Anubis 13-6 | 7 Mirage 6-13 | 11 | Split | Under ✓ | |
| 2026-07-11 | paiN | 7 Cache 13-11 | 9 Nuke 13-7 | 16 | W | Over ✗ | |
| 2026-07-10 | BESTIA | 6 Mirage 10-13 | 2 Cache 13-8 | 8 | Split | Under ✓ |
