KillsRisk
Line
22.5
Pick
OVER
Projection
24.49
Hit
54.8%
EV+
-5.1%
Edge
+2.0
L10
70%
HeadshotsBetter playLean
Line
12.5
Pick
OVER
Projection
14.3
Hit
62.3%
EV+
+7.9%
Edge
+1.8
L10
100%
Rifler
Zero
TYLOO vs FURIA
LEAN · OVER 12.5
BEST OVER · PP 12.5PP12.5UD13.5
▲ L5 17.4 · L20 15.3
Hit rates at 12.5 (Over)
L5
100%
5/5
L10
100%
10/10
L20
82%
14/17
H2H
N/A
Volatility
Low
±3.74
Previous meeting · vs FURIA
No meeting with FURIA in his last 17 series.
LAN vs online form
LAN · this match
16.1
11/12 hit at 12.5
Online
13.4
3/5 hit at 12.5
Avg headshots on Maps 1-2. The learned hit % now leans toward his form in this setting.
Late checks & sources
- Map veto (currently estimated)
- Confirm Zero is in the starting five
- Re-check line: PASS at 12.5
bo3.gg per-map player statsbo3.gg match scheduleWin chance: Polymarket 9.5%
Unverified / missing: Maps 1-2 not confirmed
prizepicks · Headshots · Maps 1-2Lean
What to watch · Needs 13+ HS (~22 kills at 58.4% HS): 0.56 KPR over ~38 rounds. Main danger: a fast 2-0 (68.7%) or blowout (41.1%) cuts rounds.
Side
Over
Projection
14.3
Raw edge
+1.8
Cons. hit
62.3%
EV+
+7.9%
Rating
5.5/10
Exp. rounds
38.2
Line
12.5
Verdict
Lean
Plain model
62.3%
0 →
Learned
62.3%
what past results change
learning 0x
learning 0x
Same-line track record · Over 10.5-14.5
All players · Headshots
55.1%314 picks
This player
100%3 picks
Green = above the 57.7% a 2-pick needs. Graded picks only, pushes left out.
raw 68.5% → −8% haircut · cap 68% · per-leg 1.732x · threshold ±2 (pref ±2.5)
- Edge +1.8 below ±2.0 minimum
- Game script fits: blowout 41% (under 40%) · team 10% to win (20%+)
- Blowout loss risk — team only 10% to win. Big underdogs often lose maps 13-3 and the Over dies (e.g. Temny Prince: 9 kills in a 3-13 map 1). Over is penalised and can't be a Take.
Sharp checks · 4/5 active
Big enough sample · 17 recent series (need 8+)
L10 hit rate ≥ 60%off · L10 100.0% at this line
L20 hit rate ≥ 55%off · L20 82.4% at this line
Game script fits · blowout 41% (under 40%) · team 10% to win (20%+)
Standard line · Standard payout line
Bo3 series · Maps 1-2 guaranteed
L10 form (4/10 rule) · L10 10/10 at this line · projection 2.7 from his L10 avg
Projection = model only (the replay showed the last-5 blend didn't help)
Evidence & risk
Last 10 series Maps 1-2: avg 17.0 headshots vs line 12.5 (10/10 over). KPR 0.67, HS 58%. Next: vs FURIA, LAN.
Strongest: L10 average 17.0 against a 12.5 line
Biggest risk: 30% of recent maps were blowouts (13-5 or worse)
- 30% of recent maps were blowouts (13-5 or worse)
- Map veto not confirmed — Maps 1-2 estimated from recent map frequency
The read
Signal
PARTIAL
The call
PASS
Value
THIN
- • Model 14.3 vs line 12.5 → +1.8 (14.4%)
- • Form L5 100% · L10 100% over this line
- • Underdog (≤40%) → −1.0 rounds/map (learned from 28 real matches) · kill rate −4% KPR
- • Expected 38.2 rounds · 2-0 68.7% · OT 1.3%
Performance (last 34 maps)
Kills/Map
13.09
HS/Map
7.65
K/D
1.06
KPR
0.67
ADR
77
KAST
72%
HS%
58.4%
Multi-kill
18%
Kills projection
Map 1 (Mirage)7.2 · KPR 0.686 · 18.3r
Map 2 (Inferno)7.1 · KPR 0.629 · 19.9r
Required KPR to clear0.56
Base kills (Maps 1-2)25.08
Sweep / blowout / OT adj.-2.36%
Final projected kills24.49
× realistic HS% (58.4%)14.3
FURIA gives up (117 series)-8.4% vs norm
Likely HS totals · Maps 1-2
Bars in colour cash the Over 12.5. Model: 68.5% before the safety haircut.
Lopsided maps41.1%
~12 HS · 33r45%
Normal47.5%
~16 HS · 42r78.1%
Close maps10.1%
~16 HS · 42r77.1%
Overtime1.3%
~18 HS · 48r89.8%
Match context
Oct 27, 12:00 PM CTLANPGL Masters Bucharest 2026
Win chance source: Polymarket 9.5% · live
Underdog (≤40%) → −1.0 rounds/map (learned from 28 real matches) · kill rate −4% KPR
⚠ Blowout riskBlowout loss risk — team only 10% to win. Big underdogs often lose maps 13-3 and the Over dies (e.g. Temny Prince: 9 kills in a 3-13 map 1). Over is penalised and can't be a Take.
M1 Mirage
18.3r
+6% KPR here
M2 Inferno
19.9r
-3% KPR here
Total
38.2r
2-0 sweep68.7%
Long Map 2 (24+ rounds)11.4%
Overtime1.3%
Blowout (13-5 or worse)41.1%
2-0 sweep is info only — Maps 1-2 are played either way. Sweep from win chance + his team's 2-0 rate + opponent's 2-0 rate + market. Rounds & blowout from 34 his-team maps + 30 opponent maps + 0 past-meeting maps.
Likely maps from his team's recent map frequency: Mirage / Inferno
Recent Maps 1-2 form
10 series · line 12.5 (Over) · avg 17.0 · hit 10/10 · tap a bar
12.5
Nearby lines
| 10.5 Over | 65.8% | |
| 11.5 Over | 64.5% | |
| 12.5 Over | 62.3% | OFFERED |
| 13.5 Over | 53.2% | below BE |
| 14.5 Over | 45.1% | below BE |
Break-even per leg: 57.7%
Becomes a PASS at: 12.5
Line movement
first 12.5→12.5no change
- First seen12.5Oct 26, 07:00 PM
Map stats
Mirage
10 maps
Kills
13.1
KPR
0.72
HS%
53.4%
K/D
1.25
Ancient
7 maps
Kills
12.9
KPR
0.66
HS%
53.3%
K/D
1.01
Inferno
7 maps
Kills
13.7
KPR
0.64
HS%
55.2%
K/D
1.07
Nuke
6 maps
Kills
14.2
KPR
0.68
HS%
74.1%
K/D
1.1
Anubis
2 maps
Kills
11
KPR
0.61
HS%
68.2%
K/D
0.71
Cache
2 maps
Kills
10.5
KPR
0.53
HS%
52.4%
K/D
0.81
Recent Maps 1-2 results
| Date | Opp | Map 1 | Map 2 | Total | Team | Prop | Flags |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-10-26 | 9z | 10 Inferno 11-13 | 15 Nuke 13-5 | 25 | Split | Over ✓ | BO |
| 2026-10-25 | Spirit | 10 Mirage 5-13 | 3 Anubis 3-13 | 13 | L | Over ✓ | BO |
| 2026-10-24 | FUT | 15 Nuke 9-13 | 3 Ancient 6-13 | 18 | L | Over ✓ | |
| 2026-10-05 | M80 | 15 Mirage 13-10 | 3 Cache 7-13 | 18 | Split | Over ✓ | |
| 2026-10-04 | 9z | 11 Nuke 10-13 | 2 Mirage 2-13 | 13 | L | Over ✓ | BO |
| 2026-10-03 | Falcons | 6 Mirage 11-13 | 12 Anubis 7-13 | 18 | L | Over ✓ | |
| 2026-09-10 | Alliance | 11 Inferno 11-13 | 10 Ancient 11-13 | 21 | L | Over ✓ | |
| 2026-09-09 | GamerLegion | 6 Ancient 13-7 | 8 Mirage 13-6 | 14 | W | Over ✓ | |
| 2026-09-08 | PARIVISION | 6 Inferno 11-13 | 7 Ancient 4-13 | 13 | L | Over ✓ | BO |
| 2026-09-02 | DEPO | 5 Mirage 13-2 | 12 Inferno 13-2 | 17 | W | Over ✓ | BO |
| 2026-09-02 | Kaleido | 6 Mirage 13-5 | 5 Inferno 13-9 | 11 | W | Under ✗ | BO |
| 2026-08-14 | Lynn Vision | 6 Nuke 8-13 | 2 Inferno 4-13 | 8 | L | Under ✗ | BO |
| 2026-07-12 | Lynn Vision | 8 Ancient 13-6 | 7 Inferno 10-13 | 15 | Split | Over ✓ | |
| 2026-07-11 | The Huns | 6 Ancient 13-9 | 5 Mirage 13-2 | 11 | W | Under ✗ | BO |
| 2026-07-10 | The MongolZ Academy | 8 Ancient 13-3 | 5 Mirage 13-1 | 13 | W | Over ✓ | BO |
| 2026-07-09 | 9z | 7 Nuke 9-13 | 8 Mirage 13-7 | 15 | Split | Over ✓ | |
| 2026-07-03 | EYEBALLERS | 9 Nuke 13-6 | 8 Cache 13-7 | 17 | W | Over ✓ |
