KillsBetter playRisk
Line
31.5
Pick
UNDER
Projection
27.65
Hit
53.7%
EV+
+0.5%
Edge
-3.9
L10
40%
HeadshotsRisk
Line
17.5
Pick
UNDER
Projection
15.58
Hit
51.1%
EV+
-11.5%
Edge
-1.9
L10
40%
Rifler
Kvem
Eternal Fire vs Team Nemesis
RISK · UNDER 31.5
SAME LINE ON ALL APPSPP31.5UD31.5
▲ L5 34.2 · L20 32.6LAN UNDER · 52% hitL10 4/10 BLOCK
Hit rates at 31.5 (Under)
L5
60%
3/5
L10
40%
4/10
L20
38%
6/16
H2H
N/A
Volatility
Medium
Previous meeting · vs Team Nemesis
No meeting with Team Nemesis in his last 16 series.
LAN vs online form
LAN · this match
32.8
5/13 hit at 31.5
Online
31.7
1/3 hit at 31.5
Avg kills on Maps 1-2.
Late checks & sources
- Map veto (currently estimated)
- Confirm Kvem is in the starting five
- Re-check line: PASS at —
bo3.gg per-map player statsbo3.gg match scheduleWin chance: Polymarket 88.0%
Unverified / missing: Maps 1-2 not confirmed
underdog · Kills · Maps 1-2Risk
What to watch · Stays under with 31 kills or fewer: across ~38 rounds. Main danger: overtime (23%) or long close maps add rounds.
Side
Under
Projection
27.65
Raw edge
-3.9
Cons. hit
53.7%
EV+
+0.5%
Exp. rounds
38.2
Line
31.5
Verdict
Risk
Same-line track record · Under 29.5-33.5
All players · Kills
51.4%455 picks
This player
20%5 picks
Green = above the 57.7% a 2-pick needs. Graded picks only, pushes left out.
Evidence & risk
Last 10 series Maps 1-2: avg 33.6 kills vs line 29.5 (8/10 over). Next: vs Nemesis, LAN.
Strongest: L10 average 33.6 against a 29.5 line
Biggest risk: Map veto not confirmed — Maps 1-2 estimated from recent map frequency
- Map veto not confirmed — Maps 1-2 estimated from recent map frequency
The read
Signal
MIXED
The call
PASS
Value
THIN
- • Model 27.65 vs line 31.5 → -3.85 (-12.2%)
- • Form L5 60% · L10 40% under this line
- • Expected 38.2 rounds · 2-0 58.4% · OT 23%
Performance (last 32 maps)
Kills/Map
16.31
HS/Map
9.19
K/D
0.99
ADR
74.8
KAST
71.7%
Multi-kill
18.3%
Kills projection
Team Nemesis gives up (35 series)-12.2% vs norm
Match context
Oct 28, 8:30 AM CTLANStake Ranked Episode 5
Win chance source: Polymarket 81.5% · live
M1 Mirage
19.6r
M2 Cache
18.6r
Total
38.2r
2-0 sweep58.4%
Long Map 2 (24+ rounds)42%
Overtime23%
Blowout (13-5 or worse)35.3%
2-0 sweep is info only — Maps 1-2 are played either way. Sweep from win chance + his team's 2-0 rate + opponent's 2-0 rate + market. Rounds & blowout from 32 his-team maps + 30 opponent maps + 0 past-meeting maps.
Likely maps from his team's recent map frequency: Mirage / Cache
Recent Maps 1-2 form
10 series · line 31.5 (Under) · avg 33.6 · hit 4/10 · tap a bar
31.5
Line movement
first 29.5→31.5+2
- Moved up30.5 → 31.5Oct 27, 08:37 PM
- Moved up29.5 → 30.5Oct 27, 08:32 PM
- First seen29.5Oct 27, 08:04 PM
Map stats
Mirage
9 maps
Kills
12.8
K/D
0.83
Cache
7 maps
Kills
16.6
K/D
1.2
Dust2
6 maps
Kills
17.8
K/D
0.94
Anubis
4 maps
Kills
20
K/D
1.07
Inferno
3 maps
Kills
15.3
K/D
1.15
Ancient
3 maps
Kills
19.3
K/D
0.89
Recent Maps 1-2 results
| Date | Opp | Map 1 | Map 2 | Total | Team | Prop | Flags |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-10-27 | MIBR | 11 Ancient 13-10 | 20 Mirage 10-13 | 31 | Split | Under ✓ | |
| 2026-10-23 | SINNERS | 12 Mirage 6-13 | 30 Cache 16-12 | 42 | Split | Over ✗ | OT |
| 2026-10-23 | JiJieHao | 30 Ancient 22-20 | 14 Inferno 7-13 | 44 | Split | Over ✗ | OT |
| 2026-10-22 | SINNERS | 10 Mirage 13-10 | 21 Cache 14-16 | 31 | Split | Under ✓ | OT |
| 2026-10-21 | BC.Game | 6 Mirage 6-13 | 17 Ancient 13-9 | 23 | Split | Under ✓ | |
| 2026-10-21 | BASEMENT BOYS | 13 Mirage 8-13 | 21 Cache 13-7 | 34 | Split | Over ✗ | |
| 2026-10-20 | INFINITE | 11 Cache 13-1 | 27 Dust2 22-20 | 38 | W | Over ✗ | OTBO |
| 2026-10-03 | Ninjas in Pyjamas | 4 Dust2 4-13 | 20 Inferno 11-13 | 24 | L | Under ✓ | BO |
| 2026-10-03 | JiJieHao | 26 Dust2 19-15 | 11 Mirage 11-13 | 37 | Split | Over ✗ | OT |
| 2026-10-02 | BASEMENT BOYS | 20 Mirage 12-16 | 12 Cache 13-7 | 32 | Split | Over ✗ | OT |
| 2026-09-27 | K27 | 15 Dust2 13-8 | 19 Mirage 13-8 | 34 | W | Over ✗ | |
| 2026-09-26 | Nuclear TigeRES | 8 Anubis 7-13 | 15 Dust2 13-8 | 23 | Split | Under ✓ | |
| 2026-09-25 | WBT | 15 Cache 13-6 | 23 Anubis 19-17 | 38 | W | Over ✗ | OT |
| 2026-09-24 | Betclic | 6 Cache 4-13 | 28 Anubis 16-13 | 34 | Split | Over ✗ | OTBO |
| 2026-09-24 | ASTRAL | 12 Inferno 13-6 | 20 Dust2 13-10 | 32 | W | Over ✗ | |
| 2026-09-24 | JiJieHao | 21 Anubis 10-13 | 4 Mirage 2-13 | 25 | L | Under ✓ | BO |
