KillsLean
Line
29.5
Pick
UNDER
Projection
27.18
Hit
51.4%
EV+
-10.9%
Edge
-2.3
L10
70%
HeadshotsBetter playRisk
Line
16
Pick
UNDER
Projection
14.6
Hit
51.9%
EV+
-10.1%
Edge
-1.4
L10
60%
Rifler
erkaSt
NEXVOID vs Off Chops
RISK · UNDER 16
PP16
▼ L5 13.8 · L20 15.0Risk · Edge -1.4 far below ±2.0 +1LAN UNDER · 43% hit
Hit rates at 16 (Under)
L5
60%
3/5
L10
60%
6/10
L20
60%
12/20
H2H
0%
0/1
Volatility
High
±6.5
Previous meeting · vs Off Chops
0/1 hit · avg 31 headshots on Maps 1-2
2026-10-18 · Logitech G Pro Series 2026
Dust2 19-17 · Inferno 13-9 · W
31
Over 16 ✗
LAN vs online form
LAN · this match
15.8
7/13 hit at 16
Online
13.6
5/7 hit at 16
Avg headshots on Maps 1-2. The learned hit % now leans toward his form in this setting.
Late checks & sources
- Map veto (currently estimated)
- Confirm erkaSt is in the starting five
- Re-check line: PASS at 16
bo3.gg per-map player statsbo3.gg match schedule
Unverified / missing: Maps 1-2 not confirmed
prizepicks · Headshots · Maps 1-2Risk
What to watch · Stays under with 15 HS or fewer (under ~30 kills at 53.7% HS): below 0.687 KPR over ~43 rounds. Main danger: overtime (12.2%) or long close maps add rounds.
Side
Under
Projection
14.6
Raw edge
-1.4
Cons. hit
51.9%
EV+
-10.1%
Rating
2.5/10
Exp. rounds
43.4
Line
16
Verdict
Risk
Plain model
51.9%
0 →
Learned
51.9%
what past results change
learning 0x
learning 0x
Same-line track record · Under 14-18
All players · Headshots
43.3%411 picks
This player
—0 picks
Green = above the 57.7% a 2-pick needs. Graded picks only, pushes left out.
raw 58.6% → −8% haircut · cap 68% · per-leg 1.732x · threshold ±2 (pref ±2.5)
- Edge -1.4 below ±2.0 minimum
- EV+ not positive at current payout
- High form volatility
Sharp checks · 5/5 active
Big enough sample · 20 recent series (need 8+)
L10 hit rate ≥ 60%off · L10 60.0% at this line
L20 hit rate ≥ 55%off · L20 60.0% at this line
Game script fits · OT 12% (under 22%) · 43.4 exp. rounds (under 47)
Standard line · Standard payout line
Bo3 series · Maps 1-2 guaranteed
L10 form (4/10 rule) · L10 6/10 at this line · projection 1.0 from his L10 avg
Projection = model only (the replay showed the last-5 blend didn't help)
Evidence & risk
Last 10 series Maps 1-2: avg 15.6 headshots vs line 16.0 (3/10 over). KPR 0.65, HS 54%. Next: vs Off Chops, LAN.
Strongest: L10 average 15.6 against a 16.0 line
Biggest risk: Map veto not confirmed — Maps 1-2 estimated from recent map frequency
- Map veto not confirmed — Maps 1-2 estimated from recent map frequency
The read
Signal
ALIGNED
The call
PASS
Value
NO VALUE
- • Model 14.6 vs line 16 → -1.4 (-8.8%)
- • Form L5 60% · L10 60% under this line
- • Win chance unknown — no favourite adjustment
- • Expected 43.4 rounds · 2-0 58.5% · OT 12.2%
Performance (last 40 maps)
Kills/Map
13.97
HS/Map
7.5
K/D
0.9
KPR
0.65
ADR
77.7
KAST
71.6%
HS%
53.7%
Multi-kill
16.8%
Kills projection
Map 1 (Ancient)7.3 · KPR 0.604 · 22.4r
Map 2 (Inferno)7.3 · KPR 0.652 · 21r
Required KPR to clear0.687
Base kills (Maps 1-2)27.22
Sweep / blowout / OT adj.-0.16%
Final projected kills27.18
× realistic HS% (53.7%)14.6
Likely HS totals · Maps 1-2
Bars in colour cash the Under 16. Model: 58.6% before the safety haircut.
Lopsided maps23.1%
~12 HS · 37r74.3%
Normal54.4%
~15 HS · 44r59.5%
Close maps10.3%
~16 HS · 46r53.8%
Overtime12.2%
~18 HS · 52r41.7%
Match context
Oct 27, 10:00 PM CTLANDFRAG Invitational 2026
Win chance source: —
Win chance unknown — no favourite adjustment
M1 Ancient
22.4r
-7% KPR here
M2 Inferno
21r
Total
43.4r
2-0 sweep58.5%
Long Map 2 (24+ rounds)22.5%
Overtime12.2%
Blowout (13-5 or worse)23.1%
2-0 sweep is info only — Maps 1-2 are played either way. Sweep from win chance + his team's 2-0 rate + opponent's 2-0 rate. Rounds & blowout from 40 his-team maps + 16 opponent maps + 2 past-meeting maps.
Likely maps from his team's recent map frequency: Ancient / Inferno
Recent Maps 1-2 form
10 series · line 16 (Under) · avg 15.6 · hit 6/10 · tap a bar
16
Nearby lines
| 14 Under | 38.6% | below BE |
| 15 Under | 46.3% | below BE |
| 16 Under | 51.9% | OFFERED |
| 17 Under | 57% | below BE |
| 18 Under | 59.6% |
Break-even per leg: 57.7%
Becomes a PASS at: 16
Line movement
first 16→16no change
- First seen16Oct 26, 09:41 PM
Map stats
Ancient
12 maps
Kills
13.8
KPR
0.59
HS%
53%
K/D
0.85
Inferno
10 maps
Kills
12.6
KPR
0.65
HS%
48.4%
K/D
1.03
Dust2
8 maps
Kills
14.1
KPR
0.65
HS%
59.3%
K/D
0.9
Nuke
5 maps
Kills
16
KPR
0.62
HS%
56.2%
K/D
0.82
Cache
3 maps
Kills
17
KPR
0.81
HS%
49%
K/D
1.06
Anubis
2 maps
Kills
11.5
KPR
0.53
HS%
60.9%
K/D
0.79
Recent Maps 1-2 results
| Date | Opp | Map 1 | Map 2 | Total | Team | Prop | Flags |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-10-26 | Ground Zero | 9 Ancient 13-11 | 7 Anubis 13-8 | 16 | W | Under ✗ | |
| 2026-10-23 | Rare Atom | 6 Dust2 10-13 | 9 Ancient 11-13 | 15 | L | Under ✓ | |
| 2026-10-22 | Morningstar | 8 Dust2 13-6 | 4 Ancient 13-7 | 12 | W | Under ✓ | |
| 2026-10-21 | Chinggis Warriors | 4 Inferno 1-13 | 16 Cache 13-10 | 20 | Split | Over ✗ | BO |
| 2026-10-20 | Vitalem Aerem | 1 Dust2 5-13 | 5 Inferno 13-10 | 6 | Split | Under ✓ | BO |
| 2026-10-18 | FlyQuest | 7 Ancient 13-7 | 12 Dust2 6-13 | 19 | Split | Over ✗ | |
| 2026-10-18 | Off Chops | 19 Dust2 19-17 | 12 Inferno 13-9 | 31 | W | Over ✗ | OT |
| 2026-10-17 | FlyQuest | 10 Ancient 16-14 | 4 Dust2 2-13 | 14 | Split | Under ✓ | OTBO |
| 2026-10-15 | Rooster | 7 Anubis 13-9 | 2 Inferno 13-4 | 9 | W | Under ✓ | BO |
| 2026-10-15 | Mindfreak | 5 Cache 13-7 | 9 Inferno 13-5 | 14 | W | Under ✓ | BO |
| 2026-10-11 | Chinggis Warriors | 10 Nuke 13-9 | 4 Ancient 7-13 | 14 | Split | Under ✓ | |
| 2026-10-10 | 5star | 12 Ancient 13-5 | 7 Inferno 12-16 | 19 | Split | Over ✗ | OTBO |
| 2026-10-08 | The Huns | 9 Ancient 13-10 | 7 Inferno 13-5 | 16 | W | Under ✗ | BO |
| 2026-09-29 | Lynn Vision | 7 Ancient 11-13 | 9 Nuke 13-11 | 16 | Split | Under ✗ | |
| 2026-09-28 | The Huns | 18 Nuke 22-20 | 7 Ancient 13-11 | 25 | W | Over ✗ | OT |
| 2026-09-27 | Lynn Vision | 8 Ancient 14-16 | 5 Nuke 5-13 | 13 | L | Under ✓ | OTBO |
| 2026-09-25 | Legion | 8 Dust2 13-6 | 5 Inferno 13-7 | 13 | W | Under ✓ | |
| 2026-09-23 | Just Swing | 4 Cache 7-13 | 6 Inferno 13-4 | 10 | Split | Under ✓ | BO |
| 2026-09-22 | bLight blue | 9 Dust2 13-11 | 4 Inferno 13-3 | 13 | W | Under ✓ | BO |
| 2026-09-03 | Chinggis Warriors | 3 Nuke 11-13 | 2 Ancient 10-13 | 5 | L | Under ✓ |
