KillsBetter playLean
Line
27.5
Pick
OVER
Projection
30.21
Hit
62.3%
EV+
+7.9%
Edge
+2.7
L10
70%
HeadshotsRisk
Line
14.5
Pick
OVER
Projection
15.76
Hit
60.4%
EV+
+4.5%
Edge
+1.3
L10
50%
Rifler
n1ssim
Legacy vs Nemiga
LEAN · OVER 27.5
BEST OVER · UD 25.5PP27.5UD25.5
▼ L5 26.2 · L20 27.6
Hit rates at 27.5 (Over)
L5
60%
3/5
L10
70%
7/10
L20
60%
12/20
H2H
N/A
Volatility
Low
±6.03
Previous meeting · vs Nemiga
No meeting with Nemiga in his last 20 series.
LAN vs online form
LAN · this match
27.6
12/20 hit at 27.5
Online
—
no series
Avg kills on Maps 1-2. The learned hit % now leans toward his form in this setting.
Late checks & sources
- Map veto (currently estimated)
- Confirm n1ssim is in the starting five
- Re-check line: PASS at 27.5
bo3.gg per-map player statsbo3.gg match scheduleWin chance: Polymarket 65.5%
Unverified / missing: Maps 1-2 not confirmed
prizepicks · Kills · Maps 1-2Lean
What to watch · Needs 28+ kills: 0.641 KPR over ~43 rounds. Main danger: a fast 2-0 (53.5%) or blowout (20.2%) cuts rounds.
Side
Over
Projection
30.21
Raw edge
+2.7
Cons. hit
62.3%
EV+
+7.9%
Rating
5.5/10
Exp. rounds
42.9
Line
27.5
Verdict
Lean
Plain model
62.3%
-4.7 →
Learned
57.6%
what past results change
learning 0x
learning 0x
Same-line track record · Over 25.5-29.5
All players · Kills
56.2%395 picks
This player
100%2 picks
Green = above the 57.7% a 2-pick needs. Graded picks only, pushes left out.
raw 62.8% → −8% haircut · cap 74% · per-leg 1.732x · threshold ±3 (pref ±4)
- Edge +2.7 below ±3.0 minimum
Sharp checks · 6/6
Big enough sample · 20 recent series (need 8+)
L10 hit rate ≥ 60% · L10 70.0% at this line · gate off (replay: didn't help)
L20 hit rate ≥ 55% · L20 60.0% at this line · gate off (replay: didn't help)
Game script fits · 42.9 exp. rounds (need 38+) · blowout 20% (under 40%) · team 66% to win (20%+)
Standard line · Standard payout line
Bo3 series · Maps 1-2 guaranteed
Projection = model only (the replay showed the last-5 blend didn't help)
Evidence & risk
Last 10 series Maps 1-2: avg 28.0 kills vs line 26.5 (7/10 over). KPR 0.63, HS 55%. Next: vs Nemiga, LAN.
Strongest: L10 average 28.0 against a 26.5 line
Biggest risk: Map veto not confirmed — Maps 1-2 estimated from recent map frequency
- Map veto not confirmed — Maps 1-2 estimated from recent map frequency
The read
Signal
MIXED
The call
PASS
Value
THIN
- • Model 30.21 vs line 27.5 → +2.71 (9.9%)
- • Form L5 60% · L10 70% over this line
- • Slight lean (40–45% / 65–70%) → ±0.0 rounds/map (learned from 6 real matches)
- • Expected 42.9 rounds · 2-0 53.5% · OT 7.8%
Performance (last 40 maps)
Kills/Map
13.8
HS/Map
7.55
K/D
1.03
KPR
0.64
ADR
72.8
KAST
69.1%
HS%
54.7%
Multi-kill
14.1%
Kills projection
Map 1 (Ancient)13.9 · KPR 0.653 · 21.4r
Map 2 (Dust2)14 · KPR 0.652 · 21.5r
Required KPR to clear0.641
Base kills (Maps 1-2)27.99
Sweep / blowout / OT adj.-0.44%
Final projected kills27.87
Nemiga gives up (70 series)-1.5% vs norm
Likely kills totals · Maps 1-2
Bars in colour cash the Over 27.5. Model: 62.8% before the safety haircut.
Lopsided maps20.2%
~25 kills · 36r33%
Normal53.1%
~30 kills · 43r68.6%
Close maps18.9%
~32 kills · 46r79.4%
Overtime7.8%
~37 kills · 52r93.3%
Match context
Oct 24, 12:55 PMLANPGL Masters Bucharest 2026
Win chance source: Polymarket 65.5%
Slight lean (40–45% / 65–70%) → ±0.0 rounds/map (learned from 6 real matches)
Game scriptIdeal Over range — team 66% to win (40-70%), competitive maps expected.
M1 Ancient
21.4r
+3% KPR here
M2 Dust2
21.5r
+3% KPR here
Total
42.9r
2-0 sweep53.5%
Long Map 2 (24+ rounds)26.7%
Overtime7.8%
Blowout (13-5 or worse)20.2%
2-0 sweep is info only — Maps 1-2 are played either way.
Likely maps from his team's recent map frequency: Ancient / Dust2
Recent Maps 1-2 form
10 series · line 27.5 (Over) · avg 28.0 · hit 7/10 · tap a bar
27.5
Nearby lines
| 25.5 Over | 67.5% | |
| 26.5 Over | 65.2% | |
| 27.5 Over | 62.3% | OFFERED |
| 28.5 Over | 58.6% | |
| 29.5 Over | 54.3% | below BE |
Break-even per leg: 57.7%
Becomes a PASS at: 27.5
Line movement
first 26.5→27.5+1
- Back on board27.5 → 27.5Oct 24, 10:16 PM
- Pulled27.5Oct 24, 10:15 PM
- Back on board26.5 → 27.5Oct 24, 10:15 PM
- Pulled26.5Oct 24, 12:46 PM
- Back on board26.5 → 26.5Oct 24, 12:45 PM
- Pulled26.5Oct 24, 12:45 PM
- First seen26.5Oct 24, 12:00 AM
Map stats
Ancient
10 maps
Kills
14.1
KPR
0.66
HS%
49.6%
K/D
1.07
Dust2
9 maps
Kills
14.1
KPR
0.66
HS%
60.6%
K/D
1.04
Mirage
8 maps
Kills
14
KPR
0.62
HS%
50%
K/D
1.02
Nuke
6 maps
Kills
17.3
KPR
0.7
HS%
56.7%
K/D
1.13
Inferno
5 maps
Kills
9.6
KPR
0.52
HS%
56.2%
K/D
0.86
Cache
2 maps
Kills
10
KPR
0.5
HS%
65%
K/D
0.77
Recent Maps 1-2 results
| Date | Opp | Map 1 | Map 2 | Total | Team | Prop | Flags |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-10-16 | BetBoom | 18 Nuke 13-16 | 13 Dust2 13-11 | 31 | Split | Over ✓ | OT |
| 2026-10-15 | FURIA | 9 Cache 13-10 | 6 Inferno 5-13 | 15 | Split | Under ✗ | BO |
| 2026-10-14 | PARIVISION | 12 Dust2 13-11 | 20 Mirage 16-14 | 32 | W | Over ✓ | OT |
| 2026-10-06 | M80 | 11 Cache 4-13 | 17 Mirage 13-9 | 28 | Split | Over ✓ | BO |
| 2026-10-05 | 1win | 15 Dust2 8-13 | 10 Ancient 8-13 | 25 | L | Under ✗ | |
| 2026-10-04 | ShindeN | 14 Nuke 13-8 | 16 Mirage 13-11 | 30 | W | Over ✓ | |
| 2026-10-03 | PARIVISION | 15 Dust2 13-5 | 5 Inferno 2-13 | 20 | Split | Under ✗ | BO |
| 2026-09-13 | G2 | 18 Ancient 13-9 | 18 Mirage 13-10 | 36 | W | Over ✓ | |
| 2026-09-12 | MIBR | 19 Nuke 13-10 | 14 Ancient 11-13 | 33 | Split | Over ✓ | |
| 2026-09-10 | FURIA | 13 Mirage 13-7 | 17 Ancient 13-9 | 30 | W | Over ✓ | |
| 2026-09-09 | Alliance | 8 Inferno 13-4 | 13 Dust2 13-6 | 21 | W | Under ✗ | BO |
| 2026-09-08 | magic | 14 Ancient 13-7 | 8 Dust2 7-13 | 22 | Split | Under ✗ | |
| 2026-08-30 | Vitality | 21 Nuke 14-16 | 8 Mirage 13-9 | 29 | Split | Over ✓ | OT |
| 2026-08-29 | Falcons | 12 Mirage 6-13 | 18 Ancient 13-10 | 30 | Split | Over ✓ | |
| 2026-08-27 | FUT | 10 Ancient 13-10 | 17 Dust2 13-11 | 27 | W | Under ✗ | |
| 2026-08-23 | FURIA | 14 Ancient 9-13 | 15 Nuke 13-9 | 29 | Split | Over ✓ | |
| 2026-08-22 | Spirit | 19 Dust2 7-13 | 3 Ancient 9-13 | 22 | L | Under ✗ | |
| 2026-08-21 | Falcons | 8 Mirage 13-7 | 15 Dust2 13-10 | 23 | W | Under ✗ | |
| 2026-08-20 | Natus Vincere | 13 Inferno 13-9 | 23 Ancient 13-2 | 36 | W | Over ✓ | BO |
| 2026-08-16 | MIBR | 17 Nuke 13-11 | 16 Inferno 13-8 | 33 | W | Over ✓ |
