KillsRisk
Line
28.5
Pick
UNDER
Projection
27.74
Hit
35.8%
EV+
-38.1%
Edge
-0.8
L10
10%
HeadshotsBetter playRisk
Line
14
Pick
UNDER
Projection
13.35
Hit
44.3%
EV+
-23.3%
Edge
-0.7
L10
20%
Rifler · IGL
VINI
Imperial vs BESTIA
RISK · UNDER 28.5
▲ L5 32.4 · L20 29.7Risk · Recent form (L5/L10) leans the other way +1LAN UNDER · 43% hitL10 4/10 BLOCK
Hit rates at 28.5 (Under)
L5
0%
0/5
L10
10%
1/10
L20
29%
4/14
H2H
50%
1/2
Volatility
Low
±3.48
Previous meeting · vs BESTIA
1/2 hit · avg 28.5 kills on Maps 1-2
2026-10-22 · Circuit X Curitiba 4
Dust2 7-13 · Mirage 7-13 · L
30
Over 28.5 ✗
2026-09-19 · Circuit X Curitiba 3
Mirage 10-13 · Nuke 13-2 · Split
27
Under 28.5 ✓
LAN vs online form
LAN · this match
29.5
4/13 hit at 28.5
Online
33
0/1 hit at 28.5
Avg kills on Maps 1-2. The learned hit % now leans toward his form in this setting.
Late checks & sources
- Map veto (currently estimated)
- Confirm VINI is in the starting five
- Re-check line: PASS at 28.5
bo3.gg per-map player statsbo3.gg match scheduleWin chance: Polymarket 63.5%
Unverified / missing: Maps 1-2 not confirmed
prizepicks · Kills · Maps 1-2Risk
What to watch · Stays under with 28 kills or fewer: below 0.642 KPR over ~44 rounds. Main danger: overtime (13.6%) or long close maps add rounds.
Side
Under
Projection
27.74
Raw edge
-0.8
Cons. hit
35.8%
EV+
-38.1%
Rating
1/10
Exp. rounds
44.4
Line
28.5
Verdict
Risk
Plain model
35.8%
0 →
Learned
35.8%
what past results change
learning 0x
learning 0x
Same-line track record · Under 26.5-30.5
All players · Kills
44.2%514 picks
This player
33.3%3 picks
Green = above the 57.7% a 2-pick needs. Graded picks only, pushes left out.
raw 58.6% → −8% haircut · cap 68% · per-leg 1.732x · threshold ±3 (pref ±4)
- Edge -0.8 below ±3.0 minimum
- Recent form (L5/L10) does not lean the same way
- EV+ not positive at current payout
- Game script fits: team 64% to win (not a 55-64% favourite)
- L10 form (4/10 rule): L10 1/10 at this line · projection 3.2 from his L10 avg · blocked
- Under risk — team 64% to win; favourites win more rounds and their players usually get more kills.
Sharp checks · 3/5 active
L10 only 10% at this line (under 50%)
Big enough sample · 14 recent series (need 8+)
L10 hit rate ≥ 60%off · L10 10.0% at this line
L20 hit rate ≥ 55%off · L20 28.6% at this line
Game script fits · team 64% to win (not a 55-64% favourite)
Standard line · Standard payout line
Bo3 series · Maps 1-2 guaranteed
L10 form (4/10 rule) · L10 1/10 at this line · projection 3.2 from his L10 avg · blocked
Projection = model only (the replay showed the last-5 blend didn't help)
Evidence & risk
Last 10 series Maps 1-2: avg 30.9 kills vs line 28.5 (9/10 over). KPR 0.71, HS 48%. Next: vs BESTIA, LAN.
Strongest: L10 average 30.9 against a 28.5 line
Biggest risk: Map veto not confirmed — Maps 1-2 estimated from recent map frequency
- Map veto not confirmed — Maps 1-2 estimated from recent map frequency
The read
Signal
MIXED
The call
PASS
Value
NO VALUE
- • Model 27.74 vs line 28.5 → -0.76 (-2.7%)
- • Form L5 0% · L10 10% under this line
- • Close match (45–65%) → +1.0 rounds/map (learned from 24 real matches) · kill rate −3% KPR
- • Expected 44.4 rounds · 2-0 55.2% · OT 13.6%
Performance (last 28 maps)
Kills/Map
14.86
HS/Map
7.14
K/D
1.08
KPR
0.71
ADR
78.7
KAST
73.5%
HS%
48.1%
Multi-kill
17.2%
Kills projection
Map 1 (Mirage)14.4 · KPR 0.622 · 23.2r
Map 2 (Nuke)13.4 · KPR 0.632 · 21.2r
Required KPR to clear0.642
Base kills (Maps 1-2)27.83
Sweep / blowout / OT adj.-0.29%
Final projected kills27.74
BESTIA gives up (72 series)+5.1% vs norm
Likely kills totals · Maps 1-2
Bars in colour cash the Under 28.5. Model: 58.6% before the safety haircut.
Lopsided maps28.3%
~23 kills · 37r85.3%
Normal30.6%
~28 kills · 44r58.1%
Close maps27.5%
~30 kills · 48r42.8%
Overtime13.6%
~33 kills · 54r20.5%
Match context
Oct 24, 4:00 PM CTLANCircuit X Curitiba 4
Win chance source: Polymarket 63.5%
Close match (45–65%) → +1.0 rounds/map (learned from 24 real matches) · kill rate −3% KPR
Heads upUnder risk — team 64% to win; favourites win more rounds and their players usually get more kills.
M1 Mirage
23.2r
-9% KPR here
M2 Nuke
21.2r
-8% KPR here
Total
44.4r
2-0 sweep55.2%
Long Map 2 (24+ rounds)41.1%
Overtime13.6%
Blowout (13-5 or worse)28.3%
2-0 sweep is info only — Maps 1-2 are played either way.
Likely maps from his team's recent map frequency: Mirage / Nuke
Recent Maps 1-2 form
10 series · line 28.5 (Under) · avg 30.9 · hit 1/10 · tap a bar
28.5
Nearby lines
| 26.5 Under | 22.9% | below BE |
| 27.5 Under | 29.3% | below BE |
| 28.5 Under | 35.8% | OFFERED |
| 29.5 Under | 45.6% | below BE |
| 30.5 Under | 52.8% | below BE |
Break-even per leg: 57.7%
Becomes a PASS at: 28.5
Line movement
first 28.5→offno change
- Pulled28.5Oct 24, 04:55 PM
- Back on board28.5 → 28.5Oct 24, 04:54 PM
- Pulled28.5Oct 24, 04:54 PM
- First seen28.5Oct 24, 12:25 AM
Map stats
Mirage
7 maps
Kills
13.9
KPR
0.61
HS%
51.5%
K/D
0.91
Nuke
5 maps
Kills
12
KPR
0.62
HS%
53.3%
K/D
1.15
Cache
4 maps
Kills
17.5
KPR
0.68
HS%
42.9%
K/D
1.03
Inferno
4 maps
Kills
13.8
KPR
0.72
HS%
56.4%
K/D
1.08
Anubis
4 maps
Kills
15.2
KPR
0.69
HS%
37.7%
K/D
1.02
Dust2
4 maps
Kills
18.2
KPR
0.99
HS%
46.6%
K/D
1.55
Recent Maps 1-2 results
| Date | Opp | Map 1 | Map 2 | Total | Team | Prop | Flags |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-10-23 | paiN | 10 Inferno 13-3 | 23 Anubis 14-16 | 33 | Split | Over ✗ | OTBO |
| 2026-10-22 | ShindeN | 19 Dust2 13-4 | 14 Mirage 16-14 | 33 | W | Over ✗ | OTBO |
| 2026-10-22 | BESTIA | 12 Dust2 7-13 | 18 Mirage 7-13 | 30 | L | Over ✗ | |
| 2026-10-22 | Turma do Pagode | 16 Anubis 13-10 | 18 Cache 16-14 | 34 | W | Over ✗ | OT |
| 2026-10-11 | DENDELE | 10 Mirage 8-13 | 22 Inferno 11-13 | 32 | L | Over ✗ | |
| 2026-10-11 | NRG | 9 Inferno 4-13 | 20 Dust2 13-7 | 29 | Split | Over ✗ | BO |
| 2026-10-10 | Without a Roof | 22 Dust2 13-4 | 12 Nuke 13-9 | 34 | W | Over ✗ | BO |
| 2026-09-27 | paiN | 8 Anubis 13-4 | 21 Cache 13-11 | 29 | W | Over ✗ | BO |
| 2026-09-26 | Bounty Hunters | 11 Mirage 13-9 | 11 Nuke 13-7 | 22 | W | Under ✓ | |
| 2026-09-24 | Galorys | 19 Cache 16-12 | 14 Inferno 13-6 | 33 | W | Over ✗ | OT |
| 2026-09-23 | Juventus | 14 Anubis 13-6 | 10 Nuke 13-3 | 24 | W | Under ✓ | BO |
| 2026-09-19 | BESTIA | 13 Mirage 10-13 | 14 Nuke 13-2 | 27 | Split | Under ✓ | BO |
| 2026-09-17 | Bounty Hunters | 11 Mirage 13-6 | 12 Cache 8-13 | 23 | Split | Under ✓ | |
| 2026-09-06 | Bounty Hunters | 20 Mirage 13-10 | 13 Nuke 11-13 | 33 | Split | Over ✗ |
