KillsRisk
Line
31
Pick
UNDER
Projection
30.73
Hit
50.5%
EV+
-12.6%
Edge
-0.3
L10
40%
HeadshotsBetter playRisk
Line
16
Pick
UNDER
Projection
15.48
Hit
52.8%
EV+
-8.6%
Edge
-0.5
L10
40%
Rifler
Magnojez
BetBoom vs Natus Vincere
RISK · UNDER 31
BEST UNDER · UD 31.5PP31UD31.5
▲ L5 33.6 · L20 31.4Risk · Recent form (L5/L10) leans the other way +1LAN UNDER · 43% hit
Hit rates at 31 (Under)
L5
20%
1/5
L10
40%
4/10
L20
50%
10/20
H2H
N/A
Volatility
Low
±5.38
Previous meeting · vs Natus Vincere
No meeting with Natus Vincere in his last 20 series.
LAN vs online form
LAN · this match
31.4
10/20 hit at 31
Online
—
no series
Avg kills on Maps 1-2. The learned hit % now leans toward his form in this setting.
Late checks & sources
- Map veto (currently estimated)
- Confirm Magnojez is in the starting five
- Re-check line: PASS at 31
bo3.gg per-map player statsbo3.gg match scheduleWin chance: Polymarket 37.5%
Unverified / missing: Maps 1-2 not confirmed
prizepicks · Kills · Maps 1-2Risk
What to watch · Stays under with 30 kills or fewer: below 0.752 KPR over ~41 rounds. Main danger: overtime (18.9%) or long close maps add rounds.
Side
Under
Projection
30.73
Raw edge
-0.3
Cons. hit
50.5%
EV+
-12.6%
Rating
1/10
Exp. rounds
41.2
Line
31
Verdict
Risk
Plain model
50.5%
0 →
Learned
50.5%
what past results change
learning 0x
learning 0x
Same-line track record · Under 29-33
All players · Kills
46.8%280 picks
This player
0%1 picks
Green = above the 57.7% a 2-pick needs. Graded picks only, pushes left out.
raw 53.6% → −8% haircut · cap 74% · per-leg 1.732x · threshold ±3 (pref ±4)
- Edge -0.3 below ±3.0 minimum
- Recent form (L5/L10) does not lean the same way
- EV+ not positive at current payout
Sharp checks · 6/6
Big enough sample · 20 recent series (need 8+)
L10 hit rate ≥ 60% · L10 40.0% at this line · gate off (replay: didn't help)
L20 hit rate ≥ 55% · L20 50.0% at this line · gate off (replay: didn't help)
Game script fits · OT 19% (under 22%) · 41.2 exp. rounds (under 47) · team 38% to win (not a 55-64% favourite)
Standard line · Standard payout line
Bo3 series · Maps 1-2 guaranteed
Projection = model only (the replay showed the last-5 blend didn't help)
Evidence & risk
Last 10 series Maps 1-2: avg 31.8 kills vs line 31.0 (5/10 over). KPR 0.70, HS 53%. Next: vs Natus Vincere, LAN.
Strongest: L10 average 31.8 against a 31.0 line
Biggest risk: Map veto not confirmed — Maps 1-2 estimated from recent map frequency
- Map veto not confirmed — Maps 1-2 estimated from recent map frequency
The read
Signal
MIXED
The call
PASS
Value
NO VALUE
- • Model 30.73 vs line 31 → -0.27 (-0.9%)
- • Form L5 20% · L10 40% under this line
- • Underdog (≤40%) → −1.0 rounds/map (learned from 15 real matches) · kill rate −6% KPR
- • Expected 41.2 rounds · 2-0 55.3% · OT 18.9%
Performance (last 40 maps)
Kills/Map
15.68
HS/Map
8.28
K/D
0.98
KPR
0.7
ADR
80.2
KAST
71.8%
HS%
52.8%
Multi-kill
17.2%
Kills projection
Map 1 (Anubis)13.9 · KPR 0.652 · 21.3r
Map 2 (Mirage)14.4 · KPR 0.723 · 19.9r
Required KPR to clear0.752
Base kills (Maps 1-2)28.28
Sweep / blowout / OT adj.+0.23%
Final projected kills28.35
Natus Vincere gives up (51 series)-4.2% vs norm
Likely kills totals · Maps 1-2
Bars in colour cash the Under 31. Model: 53.6% before the safety haircut.
Lopsided maps25.7%
~26 kills · 35r81.8%
Normal26.8%
~29 kills · 38r65.5%
Close maps28.6%
~33 kills · 44r35.3%
Overtime18.9%
~37 kills · 50r13.5%
Match context
Oct 26, 05:00 PMLANPGL Masters Bucharest 2026
Win chance source: Polymarket 37.5% · live
Underdog (≤40%) → −1.0 rounds/map (learned from 15 real matches) · kill rate −6% KPR
Game scriptUnderdog — team 38% to win; fewer rounds won usually means fewer kills.
M1 Anubis
21.3r
-1% KPR here
M2 Mirage
19.9r
+10% KPR here
Total
41.2r
2-0 sweep55.3%
Long Map 2 (24+ rounds)47.5%
Overtime18.9%
Blowout (13-5 or worse)25.7%
2-0 sweep is info only — Maps 1-2 are played either way. Sweep from win chance + his team's 2-0 rate + opponent's 2-0 rate + market. Rounds & blowout from 40 his-team maps + 28 opponent maps + 0 past-meeting maps.
Likely maps from his team's recent map frequency: Anubis / Mirage
Recent Maps 1-2 form
10 series · line 31 (Under) · avg 31.8 · hit 4/10 · tap a bar
31
Nearby lines
| 29 Under | 42.9% | below BE |
| 30 Under | 46.7% | below BE |
| 31 Under | 50.5% | OFFERED |
| 32 Under | 54% | below BE |
| 33 Under | 57.2% | below BE |
Break-even per leg: 57.7%
Becomes a PASS at: 31
Line movement
first 31→31no change
- First seen31Oct 26, 03:14 AM
Map stats
Anubis
10 maps
Kills
15.5
KPR
0.69
HS%
47.7%
K/D
0.97
Mirage
8 maps
Kills
16.4
KPR
0.79
HS%
50.4%
K/D
1.1
Nuke
6 maps
Kills
15.5
KPR
0.72
HS%
54.8%
K/D
1
Ancient
6 maps
Kills
17.3
KPR
0.71
HS%
62.5%
K/D
1.03
Dust2
5 maps
Kills
14.4
KPR
0.63
HS%
50%
K/D
0.91
Cache
4 maps
Kills
16.2
KPR
0.68
HS%
52.3%
K/D
0.92
Overpass
1 maps
Kills
7
KPR
0.33
HS%
71.4%
K/D
0.41
Recent Maps 1-2 results
| Date | Opp | Map 1 | Map 2 | Total | Team | Prop | Flags |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-10-25 | Nemiga | 17 Anubis 13-3 | 21 Mirage 13-11 | 38 | W | Over ✗ | BO |
| 2026-10-24 | Spirit | 17 Anubis 10-13 | 9 Ancient 13-3 | 26 | Split | Under ✓ | BO |
| 2026-10-18 | FURIA | 5 Dust2 6-13 | 26 Ancient 19-16 | 31 | Split | Under ✗ | OT |
| 2026-10-17 | Falcons | 8 Anubis 5-13 | 28 Dust2 16-14 | 36 | Split | Over ✗ | OTBO |
| 2026-10-16 | Legacy | 21 Nuke 16-13 | 16 Dust2 11-13 | 37 | Split | Over ✗ | OT |
| 2026-10-15 | PARIVISION | 16 Ancient 10-13 | 10 Anubis 13-4 | 26 | Split | Under ✓ | BO |
| 2026-10-14 | FURIA | 12 Ancient 10-13 | 17 Mirage 9-13 | 29 | L | Under ✓ | |
| 2026-10-06 | 9z | 6 Dust2 8-13 | 17 Mirage 9-13 | 23 | L | Under ✓ | |
| 2026-10-05 | Aurora | 14 Mirage 4-13 | 19 Nuke 13-7 | 33 | Split | Over ✗ | BO |
| 2026-10-04 | M80 | 26 Cache 16-14 | 13 Anubis 13-11 | 39 | W | Over ✗ | OT |
| 2026-10-03 | FURIA | 9 Mirage 5-13 | 20 Cache 14-16 | 29 | L | Under ✓ | OTBO |
| 2026-09-12 | G2 | 17 Mirage 13-7 | 17 Anubis 13-16 | 34 | Split | Over ✗ | OT |
| 2026-09-10 | MIBR | 26 Mirage 13-9 | 22 Anubis 16-14 | 48 | W | Over ✗ | OT |
| 2026-09-09 | Astralis | 26 Ancient 16-14 | 18 Anubis 13-8 | 44 | W | Over ✗ | OT |
| 2026-09-08 | BIG | 13 Cache 13-8 | 13 Nuke 13-9 | 26 | W | Under ✓ | |
| 2026-08-14 | Ninjas in Pyjamas | 12 Nuke 3-13 | 11 Anubis 11-13 | 23 | L | Under ✓ | BO |
| 2026-07-10 | FaZe | 6 Cache 2-13 | 15 Ancient 6-13 | 21 | L | Under ✓ | BO |
| 2026-06-18 | Aurora | 12 Nuke 6-13 | 22 Anubis 9-13 | 34 | L | Over ✗ | |
| 2026-06-15 | FUT | 10 Mirage 13-7 | 17 Dust2 13-7 | 27 | W | Under ✓ | |
| 2026-06-14 | Vitality | 7 Overpass 8-13 | 16 Nuke 11-13 | 23 | L | Under ✓ |
