KillsTake
Line
27.5
Pick
UNDER
Projection
23.24
Hit
61%
EV+
+5.7%
Edge
-4.3
L10
60%
HeadshotsBetter playPlayable
Line
15.5
Pick
UNDER
Projection
13.04
Hit
62.1%
EV+
+7.5%
Edge
-2.5
L10
70%
Rifler
rekonz
Rooster vs Abyssal
PLAYABLE · UNDER 15.5
▼ L5 13.0 · L20 14.2LAN UNDER · 52% hit
Hit rates at 15.5 (Under)
L5
80%
4/5
L10
70%
7/10
L20
55%
11/20
H2H
100%
1/1
Volatility
Medium
Previous meeting · vs Abyssal
1/1 hit · avg 10 headshots on Maps 1-2
2026-08-10 · DFRAG Open Series 6
Mirage 2-13 · Dust2 6-13 · L
10
Under 15.5 ✓
LAN vs online form
LAN · this match
12.7
4/6 hit at 15.5
Online
14.9
7/14 hit at 15.5
Avg headshots on Maps 1-2.
Late checks & sources
- Veto confirmed — re-check map order
- Confirm rekonz is in the starting five
- Re-check line: PASS at —
bo3.gg per-map player statsbo3.gg match scheduleWin chance: Polymarket 44.5%
prizepicks · Headshots · Maps 1-2Playable
What to watch · Stays under with 15 HS or fewer: across ~41 rounds. Main danger: overtime (10%) or long close maps add rounds.
Side
Under
Projection
13.04
Raw edge
-2.5
Cons. hit
62.1%
EV+
+7.5%
Exp. rounds
40.9
Line
15.5
Verdict
Playable
Same-line track record · Under 13.5-17.5
All players · Headshots
47.3%579 picks
This player
0%1 picks
Green = above the 57.7% a 2-pick needs. Graded picks only, pushes left out.
Evidence & risk
Last 10 series Maps 1-2: avg 12.8 headshots vs line 15.5 (3/10 over). Next: vs Abyssal, LAN.
Strongest: L10 average 12.8 against a 15.5 line
Biggest risk: Short maps lately — 19.8 rounds per map for these teams
- Short maps lately — 19.8 rounds per map for these teams
- 37% of recent maps were blowouts (13-5 or worse)
The read
Signal
ALIGNED
The call
PASS
Value
THIN
- • Model 13.04 vs line 15.5 → -2.46 (-15.9%)
- • Form L5 80% · L10 70% under this line
- • Expected 40.9 rounds · 2-0 59% · OT 10%
Performance (last 40 maps)
Kills/Map
12.65
HS/Map
7.1
K/D
0.95
ADR
66.3
KAST
72.5%
Multi-kill
13.5%
Kills projection
Match context
Oct 26, 10:00 PM CTLANDFRAG Invitational 2026
Win chance source: Polymarket 44.5%
M1 Inferno
21r
M2 Mirage
19.9r
Total
40.9r
2-0 sweep59%
Long Map 2 (24+ rounds)22.5%
Overtime10%
Blowout (13-5 or worse)37.3%
2-0 sweep is info only — Maps 1-2 are played either way. Sweep from win chance + his team's 2-0 rate + opponent's 2-0 rate + market. Rounds & blowout from 40 his-team maps + 24 opponent maps + 2 past-meeting maps.
Veto confirmed (HLTV): Inferno / Mirage
Recent Maps 1-2 form
10 series · line 15.5 (Under) · avg 12.8 · hit 7/10 · tap a bar
15.5
Line movement
first 15.5→offno change
- Pulled15.5Oct 26, 10:02 PM
- Back on board15.5 → 15.5Oct 26, 10:01 PM
- Pulled15.5Oct 26, 10:00 PM
- First seen15.5Oct 26, 07:00 PM
Map stats
Anubis
10 maps
Kills
11.1
K/D
0.9
Nuke
8 maps
Kills
12.8
K/D
0.82
Inferno
7 maps
Kills
11.9
K/D
0.94
Cache
7 maps
Kills
15.3
K/D
1.26
Mirage
5 maps
Kills
11.2
K/D
0.79
Dust2
3 maps
Kills
15.7
K/D
1.12
Recent Maps 1-2 results
| Date | Opp | Map 1 | Map 2 | Total | Team | Prop | Flags |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-10-17 | Off Chops | 5 Nuke 7-13 | 6 Cache 2-13 | 11 | L | Under ✓ | BO |
| 2026-10-17 | FlyQuest | 1 Anubis 1-13 | 7 Inferno 6-13 | 8 | L | Under ✓ | BO |
| 2026-10-15 | Mindfreak | 15 Cache 19-17 | 8 Mirage 13-4 | 23 | W | Over ✗ | OTBO |
| 2026-10-15 | NEXVOID | 6 Anubis 9-13 | 2 Inferno 4-13 | 8 | L | Under ✓ | BO |
| 2026-10-14 | MARKandLARRY | 8 Mirage 13-9 | 7 Cache 13-5 | 15 | W | Under ✓ | BO |
| 2026-10-13 | Fruju | 1 Inferno 13-3 | 9 Cache 13-6 | 10 | W | Under ✓ | BO |
| 2026-10-12 | LFO 8 | 5 Cache 13-8 | 11 Anubis 13-7 | 16 | W | Over ✗ | |
| 2026-09-27 | Ground Zero | 7 Anubis 13-6 | 8 Nuke 11-13 | 15 | Split | Under ✓ | |
| 2026-09-25 | FlyQuest | 2 Anubis 8-13 | 4 Nuke 3-13 | 6 | L | Under ✓ | BO |
| 2026-09-23 | Mindfreak | 12 Nuke 13-9 | 4 Cache 13-1 | 16 | W | Over ✗ | BO |
| 2026-08-30 | Arcade | 4 Nuke 13-7 | 3 Inferno 3-13 | 7 | Split | Under ✓ | BO |
| 2026-08-29 | MARKandLARRY | 12 Dust2 12-16 | 6 Mirage 13-11 | 18 | Split | Over ✗ | OT |
| 2026-08-28 | Ground Zero | 2 Anubis 4-13 | 11 Nuke 15-19 | 13 | L | Under ✓ | OTBO |
| 2026-08-26 | MARKandLARRY | 9 Inferno 13-2 | 12 Anubis 13-4 | 21 | W | Over ✗ | BO |
| 2026-08-11 | Mindfreak | 7 Inferno 9-13 | 10 Anubis 13-6 | 17 | Split | Over ✗ | |
| 2026-08-10 | Abyssal | 3 Mirage 2-13 | 7 Dust2 6-13 | 10 | L | Under ✓ | BO |
| 2026-08-04 | FURY | 9 Mirage 13-9 | 12 Cache 13-9 | 21 | W | Over ✗ | |
| 2026-08-03 | Finishers | 8 Dust2 13-4 | 15 Anubis 13-0 | 23 | W | Over ✗ | BO |
| 2026-07-17 | Mindfreak | 4 Nuke 9-13 | 15 Inferno 14-16 | 19 | L | Over ✗ | OT |
| 2026-07-17 | THUNDER dOWNUNDER | 1 Nuke 0-13 | 6 Anubis 4-13 | 7 | L | Under ✓ | BO |
