KillsBetter playLean
Line
31.5
Pick
UNDER
Projection
26.52
Hit
62.4%
EV+
+8.0%
Edge
-5.0
L10
80%
HeadshotsLean
Line
10.5
Pick
UNDER
Projection
8.62
Hit
59.2%
EV+
+2.6%
Edge
-1.9
L10
70%
AWPer
kashl1d
K27 vs Virtus.pro
LEAN · UNDER 10.5
≈ L5 8.6 · L20 8.6
Hit rates at 10.5 (Under)
L5
60%
3/5
L10
70%
7/10
L20
74%
14/19
H2H
0%
0/2
Volatility
Low
±3.17
Previous meeting · vs Virtus.pro
0/2 hit · avg 15 headshots on Maps 1-2
2026-09-11 · Thunderpick World Championship 2026: Global Qualifier
Cache 10-13 · Dust2 8-13 · L
14
Over 10.5 ✗
2026-09-09 · Thunderpick World Championship 2026: Global Qualifier
Anubis 13-5 · Cache 14-16 · Split
16
Over 10.5 ✗
LAN vs online form
LAN
6
4/4 hit at 10.5
Online · this match
9.3
10/15 hit at 10.5
Avg headshots on Maps 1-2. The learned hit % now leans toward his form in this setting.
Late checks & sources
- Map veto (currently estimated)
- Confirm kashl1d is in the starting five
- Re-check line: PASS at 10.5
bo3.gg per-map player statsbo3.gg match scheduleWin chance: Polymarket 56.0%
Unverified / missing: Maps 1-2 not confirmed
prizepicks · Headshots · Maps 1-2Lean
What to watch · Stays under with 10 HS or fewer (under ~34 kills at 32.5% HS): below 0.724 KPR over ~45 rounds. Main danger: overtime (3.5%) or long close maps add rounds.
Side
Under
Projection
8.62
Raw edge
-1.9
Cons. hit
59.2%
EV+
+2.6%
Rating
5.5/10
Exp. rounds
44.6
Line
10.5
Verdict
Lean
Plain model
59.2%
0 →
Learned
59.2%
what past results change
learning 0x
learning 0x
Same-line track record · Under 8.5-12.5
All players · Headshots
48.7%191 picks
This player
—0 picks
Green = above the 57.7% a 2-pick needs. Graded picks only, pushes left out.
raw 72.4% → −8% haircut · cap 68% · per-leg 1.732x · threshold ±2 (pref ±2.5)
- Edge -1.9 below ±2.0 minimum
- Game script fits: team 56% to win (not a 55-64% favourite)
- Under risk — team 56% to win; favourites win more rounds and their players usually get more kills.
Sharp checks · 4/5 active
Big enough sample · 19 recent series (need 8+)
L10 hit rate ≥ 60%off · L10 70.0% at this line
L20 hit rate ≥ 55%off · L20 73.7% at this line
Game script fits · team 56% to win (not a 55-64% favourite)
Standard line · Standard payout line
Bo3 series · Maps 1-2 guaranteed
L10 form (4/10 rule) · L10 7/10 at this line · projection 0.2 from his L10 avg
Projection = model only (the replay showed the last-5 blend didn't help)
Evidence & risk
Last 10 series Maps 1-2: avg 8.4 headshots vs line 10.5 (3/10 over). KPR 0.61, HS 33%. Next: vs Virtus.pro, LAN/Online unknown.
Strongest: L10 average 8.4 against a 10.5 line
Biggest risk: Map veto not confirmed — Maps 1-2 estimated from recent map frequency
- Map veto not confirmed — Maps 1-2 estimated from recent map frequency
The read
Signal
PARTIAL
The call
PASS
Value
THIN
- • Model 8.62 vs line 10.5 → -1.88 (-17.9%)
- • Form L5 60% · L10 70% under this line
- • Close match (45–65%) → +1.0 rounds/map (learned from 24 real matches) · kill rate −3% KPR
- • Expected 44.6 rounds · 2-0 54.1% · OT 3.5%
Performance (last 38 maps)
Kills/Map
13.18
HS/Map
4.29
K/D
1.11
KPR
0.61
ADR
64.4
KAST
71.6%
HS%
32.5%
Multi-kill
15.5%
Kills projection
Map 1 (Cache)4.8 · KPR 0.656 · 22.9r
Map 2 (Nuke)3.8 · KPR 0.542 · 21.7r
Required KPR to clear0.724
Base kills (Maps 1-2)26.79
Sweep / blowout / OT adj.-0.99%
Final projected kills26.52
× realistic HS% (32.5%)8.62
Virtus.pro gives up (37 series)+5.8% vs norm
Likely HS totals · Maps 1-2
Bars in colour cash the Under 10.5. Model: 72.4% before the safety haircut.
Lopsided maps20.4%
~7 HS · 38r87.4%
Normal64.8%
~9 HS · 46r71.7%
Close maps11.3%
~9 HS · 48r67.5%
Overtime3.5%
~10 HS · 54r53.7%
Match context
Oct 23, 8:00 AM CTOnline
Win chance source: Polymarket 56.0%
Close match (45–65%) → +1.0 rounds/map (learned from 24 real matches) · kill rate −3% KPR
Heads upUnder risk — team 56% to win; favourites win more rounds and their players usually get more kills.
M1 Cache
22.9r
+11% KPR here
M2 Nuke
21.7r
-8% KPR here
Total
44.6r
2-0 sweep54.1%
Long Map 2 (24+ rounds)14.8%
Overtime3.5%
Blowout (13-5 or worse)20.4%
2-0 sweep is info only — Maps 1-2 are played either way.
Likely maps from his team's recent map frequency: Cache / Nuke
Recent Maps 1-2 form
10 series · line 10.5 (Under) · avg 8.4 · hit 7/10 · tap a bar
10.5
Nearby lines
| 8.5 Under | 42% | below BE |
| 9.5 Under | 51.4% | below BE |
| 10.5 Under | 59.2% | OFFERED |
| 11.5 Under | 63.6% | |
| 12.5 Under | 65.7% |
Break-even per leg: 57.7%
Becomes a PASS at: 10.5
Line movement
first 10.5→offno change
- Pulled10.5Oct 23, 08:25 AM
- First seen10.5Oct 22, 09:20 PM
Map stats
Cache
11 maps
Kills
15.3
KPR
0.69
HS%
36.3%
K/D
1.15
Nuke
8 maps
Kills
11
KPR
0.54
HS%
29.5%
K/D
1.04
Ancient
7 maps
Kills
12.1
KPR
0.59
HS%
30.6%
K/D
1.12
Mirage
6 maps
Kills
10.8
KPR
0.53
HS%
35.4%
K/D
0.79
Anubis
3 maps
Kills
19
KPR
0.9
HS%
24.6%
K/D
2.38
Dust2
3 maps
Kills
12.7
KPR
0.58
HS%
34.2%
K/D
0.97
Recent Maps 1-2 results
| Date | Opp | Map 1 | Map 2 | Total | Team | Prop | Flags |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-10-09 | fnatic | 7 Ancient 13-11 | 5 Mirage 5-13 | 12 | Split | Over ✗ | BO |
| 2026-10-07 | Metizport | 5 Nuke 11-13 | 6 Mirage 13-8 | 11 | Split | Over ✗ | |
| 2026-09-27 | Eternal Fire | 3 Dust2 8-13 | 4 Mirage 8-13 | 7 | L | Under ✓ | |
| 2026-09-27 | SINNERS | 7 Nuke 6-13 | 2 Ancient 10-13 | 9 | L | Under ✓ | |
| 2026-09-26 | ex-RUBY | 1 Mirage 13-7 | 3 Cache 13-11 | 4 | W | Under ✓ | |
| 2026-09-26 | EYEBALLERS | 0 Nuke 13-7 | 5 Anubis 13-9 | 5 | W | Under ✓ | |
| 2026-09-25 | GamerLegion | 3 Cache 10-13 | 2 Nuke 10-13 | 5 | L | Under ✓ | |
| 2026-09-24 | CYBERSHOKE | 3 Ancient 13-6 | 4 Nuke 13-9 | 7 | W | Under ✓ | |
| 2026-09-11 | Virtus.pro | 7 Cache 10-13 | 7 Dust2 8-13 | 14 | L | Over ✗ | |
| 2026-09-10 | Nemiga | 5 Anubis 13-10 | 5 Mirage 9-13 | 10 | Split | Under ✓ | |
| 2026-09-10 | HEROIC | 7 Ancient 13-9 | 3 Cache 9-13 | 10 | Split | Under ✓ | |
| 2026-09-09 | WW | 3 Dust2 10-13 | 6 Cache 13-6 | 9 | Split | Under ✓ | |
| 2026-09-09 | Virtus.pro | 4 Anubis 13-5 | 12 Cache 14-16 | 16 | Split | Over ✗ | OTBO |
| 2026-09-08 | LP | 0 Ancient 13-5 | 2 Mirage 13-8 | 2 | W | Under ✓ | BO |
| 2026-09-03 | Eternal Fire | 6 Ancient 10-13 | 4 Cache 7-13 | 10 | L | Under ✓ | |
| 2026-09-03 | MIBR | 10 Cache 13-6 | 3 Nuke 13-6 | 13 | W | Over ✗ | |
| 2026-09-02 | GamerLegion | 8 Cache 4-13 | 1 Nuke 13-5 | 9 | Split | Under ✓ | BO |
| 2026-09-02 | magic | 4 Cache 9-13 | 1 Ancient 1-13 | 5 | L | Under ✓ | BO |
| 2026-08-14 | MIBR | 1 Cache 10-13 | 4 Nuke 5-13 | 5 | L | Under ✓ | BO |
