KillsBetter playLean
Line
25.5
Pick
OVER
Projection
27.94
Hit
55.1%
EV+
-4.6%
Edge
+2.4
L10
90%
HeadshotsRisk
Line
15.5
Pick
OVER
Projection
16.05
Hit
49.2%
EV+
-14.8%
Edge
+0.6
L10
70%
Rifler
rdnzao
DENDELE vs FURIA
LEAN · OVER 25.5
BEST OVER · PP 25.5PP25.5UD26.5
▲ L5 28.8 · L20 27.6
Hit rates at 25.5 (Over)
L5
80%
4/5
L10
90%
9/10
L20
72%
13/18
H2H
0%
0/1
Volatility
Low
±4.34
Previous meeting · vs FURIA
0/1 hit · avg 14 kills on Maps 1-2
2026-07-24 · BLAST Bounty Summer 2026: Closed Qualifier
Anubis 13-6 · Mirage 6-13 · Split
14
Under 25.5 ✗
LAN vs online form
LAN · this match
28.9
9/12 hit at 25.5
Online
25
4/6 hit at 25.5
Avg kills on Maps 1-2. The learned hit % now leans toward his form in this setting.
Late checks & sources
- Map veto (currently estimated)
- Confirm rdnzao is in the starting five
- Re-check line: PASS at 25.5
bo3.gg per-map player statsbo3.gg match scheduleWin chance: Polymarket 18.5%
Unverified / missing: Maps 1-2 not confirmed
prizepicks · Kills · Maps 1-2Lean
What to watch · Needs 26+ kills: 0.628 KPR over ~41 rounds. Main danger: a fast 2-0 (58.1%) or blowout (26.5%) cuts rounds.
Side
Over
Projection
27.94
Raw edge
+2.4
Cons. hit
55.1%
EV+
-4.6%
Rating
4.1/10
Exp. rounds
40.6
Line
25.5
Verdict
Lean
Plain model
55.1%
-1 →
Learned
54.1%
what past results change
learning 0x
learning 0x
Same-line track record · Over 23.5-27.5
All players · Kills
55.7%255 picks
This player
100%2 picks
Green = above the 57.7% a 2-pick needs. Graded picks only, pushes left out.
raw 59.9% → −8% haircut · cap 74% · per-leg 1.732x · threshold ±3 (pref ±4)
- Edge +2.4 below ±3.0 minimum
- EV+ not positive at current payout
- Game script fits: team 19% to win (20%+)
- Blowout loss risk — team only 19% to win. Big underdogs often lose maps 13-3 and the Over dies (e.g. Temny Prince: 9 kills in a 3-13 map 1). Over is penalised and can't be a Take.
Sharp checks · 5/6
Big enough sample · 18 recent series (need 8+)
L10 hit rate ≥ 60% · L10 90.0% at this line · gate off (replay: didn't help)
L20 hit rate ≥ 55% · L20 72.2% at this line · gate off (replay: didn't help)
Game script fits · team 19% to win (20%+)
Standard line · Standard payout line
Bo3 series · Maps 1-2 guaranteed
Projection = model only (the replay showed the last-5 blend didn't help)
Evidence & risk
Last 10 series Maps 1-2: avg 30.0 kills vs line 24.5 (9/10 over). KPR 0.69, HS 60%. Next: vs FURIA, LAN.
Strongest: L10 average 30.0 against a 24.5 line
- Map veto not confirmed — Maps 1-2 estimated from recent map frequency
The read
Signal
PARTIAL
The call
PASS
Value
NO VALUE
- • Model 27.94 vs line 25.5 → +2.44 (9.6%)
- • Form L5 80% · L10 90% over this line
- • Underdog (≤40%) → −1.0 rounds/map (learned from 15 real matches) · kill rate −6% KPR
- • Expected 40.6 rounds · 2-0 58.1% · OT 11%
Performance (last 36 maps)
Kills/Map
13.81
HS/Map
8.31
K/D
0.94
KPR
0.69
ADR
78.9
KAST
72.4%
HS%
60.2%
Multi-kill
16.7%
Kills projection
Map 1 (Mirage)12.9 · KPR 0.608 · 21.4r
Map 2 (Cache)12.8 · KPR 0.673 · 19.2r
Required KPR to clear0.628
Base kills (Maps 1-2)25.94
Sweep / blowout / OT adj.-0.62%
Final projected kills25.78
FURIA gives up (117 series)-8.1% vs norm
Likely kills totals · Maps 1-2
Bars in colour cash the Over 25.5. Model: 59.9% before the safety haircut.
Lopsided maps26.5%
~24 kills · 34r33%
Normal53.5%
~29 kills · 42r70.5%
Close maps9%
~30 kills · 43r78%
Overtime11%
~34 kills · 49r92.8%
Match context
Oct 24, 04:00 PMLANPGL Masters Bucharest 2026
Win chance source: Polymarket 18.5%
Underdog (≤40%) → −1.0 rounds/map (learned from 15 real matches) · kill rate −6% KPR
⚠ Blowout riskBlowout loss risk — team only 19% to win. Big underdogs often lose maps 13-3 and the Over dies (e.g. Temny Prince: 9 kills in a 3-13 map 1). Over is penalised and can't be a Take.
M1 Mirage
21.4r
-6% KPR here
M2 Cache
19.2r
+4% KPR here
Total
40.6r
2-0 sweep58.1%
Long Map 2 (24+ rounds)20%
Overtime11%
Blowout (13-5 or worse)26.5%
2-0 sweep is info only — Maps 1-2 are played either way.
Likely maps from his team's recent map frequency: Mirage / Cache
Recent Maps 1-2 form
10 series · line 25.5 (Over) · avg 30.0 · hit 9/10 · tap a bar
25.5
Nearby lines
| 23.5 Over | 62.5% | |
| 24.5 Over | 59.1% | |
| 25.5 Over | 55.1% | OFFERED |
| 26.5 Over | 50.6% | below BE |
| 27.5 Over | 46.2% | below BE |
Break-even per leg: 57.7%
Becomes a PASS at: 25.5
Line movement
first 24.5→25.5+1
- Back on board25.5 → 25.5Oct 24, 10:16 PM
- Pulled25.5Oct 24, 10:15 PM
- Back on board24.5 → 25.5Oct 24, 10:15 PM
- Pulled24.5Oct 24, 04:10 PM
- First seen24.5Oct 24, 12:00 AM
Map stats
Mirage
10 maps
Kills
14.4
KPR
0.63
HS%
58.3%
K/D
0.95
Cache
9 maps
Kills
14.3
KPR
0.72
HS%
67.4%
K/D
1
Nuke
5 maps
Kills
11.2
KPR
0.61
HS%
51.8%
K/D
0.88
Inferno
4 maps
Kills
16.2
KPR
0.67
HS%
56.9%
K/D
0.93
Ancient
4 maps
Kills
12.5
KPR
0.53
HS%
54%
K/D
0.74
Anubis
4 maps
Kills
13.2
KPR
0.66
HS%
66%
K/D
1.13
Recent Maps 1-2 results
| Date | Opp | Map 1 | Map 2 | Total | Team | Prop | Flags |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-10-11 | Wildcard | 19 Mirage 13-4 | 13 Nuke 8-13 | 32 | Split | Over ✓ | BO |
| 2026-10-11 | Imperial | 19 Mirage 13-8 | 14 Inferno 13-11 | 33 | W | Over ✓ | |
| 2026-10-10 | Wildcard | 20 Mirage 13-16 | 10 Cache 3-13 | 30 | L | Over ✓ | OTBO |
| 2026-09-27 | M80 | 12 Inferno 13-7 | 17 Anubis 9-13 | 29 | Split | Over ✓ | |
| 2026-09-26 | Wildcard | 7 Mirage 13-11 | 13 Nuke 10-13 | 20 | Split | Under ✗ | |
| 2026-09-26 | M80 | 16 Mirage 13-9 | 17 Ancient 16-13 | 33 | W | Over ✓ | OT |
| 2026-09-25 | Voca | 7 Ancient 13-7 | 19 Cache 13-7 | 26 | W | Over ✓ | |
| 2026-09-02 | Color | 13 Mirage 8-13 | 17 Cache 13-6 | 30 | Split | Over ✓ | |
| 2026-09-02 | EYEBALLERS | 16 Ancient 11-13 | 14 Cache 13-3 | 30 | Split | Over ✓ | BO |
| 2026-08-28 | Aurora | 13 Cache 7-13 | 24 Mirage 12-16 | 37 | L | Over ✓ | OT |
| 2026-08-26 | Spirit | 10 Ancient 8-13 | 7 Cache 7-13 | 17 | L | Under ✗ | |
| 2026-08-09 | JiJieHao | 24 Inferno 14-16 | 16 Cache 13-9 | 40 | Split | Over ✓ | OT |
| 2026-08-07 | SAW | 15 Inferno 13-10 | 14 Anubis 13-10 | 29 | W | Over ✓ | |
| 2026-08-07 | QueenConso | 8 Nuke 13-0 | 13 Anubis 13-3 | 21 | W | Under ✗ | BO |
| 2026-07-25 | FaZe | 5 Nuke 2-13 | 11 Mirage 13-10 | 16 | Split | Under ✗ | BO |
| 2026-07-24 | FURIA | 9 Anubis 13-6 | 5 Mirage 6-13 | 14 | Split | Under ✗ | |
| 2026-07-11 | paiN | 15 Cache 13-11 | 17 Nuke 13-7 | 32 | W | Over ✓ | |
| 2026-07-10 | BESTIA | 10 Mirage 10-13 | 18 Cache 13-8 | 28 | Split | Over ✓ |
