KillsBetter playRisk
Line
30.5
Pick
UNDER
Projection
29.34
Hit
52.1%
EV+
-9.8%
Edge
-1.2
L10
60%
HeadshotsRisk
Line
12
Pick
UNDER
Projection
11.77
Hit
45.3%
EV+
-21.5%
Edge
-0.2
L10
50%
AWPer
blood
Abyssal vs Rooster
RISK · UNDER 30.5
≈ L5 27.4 · L20 28.1LAN UNDER · 52% hit
Hit rates at 30.5 (Under)
L5
60%
3/5
L10
60%
6/10
L20
58%
11/19
H2H
100%
2/2
Volatility
Medium
Previous meeting · vs Rooster
2/2 hit · avg 20.5 kills on Maps 1-2
2026-08-10 · DFRAG Open Series 6
Mirage 13-2 · Dust2 13-6 · W
21
Under 30.5 ✓
2026-06-09 · DFRAG Open Series 5
Overpass 13-6 · Nuke 7-13 · Split
20
Under 30.5 ✓
LAN vs online form
LAN · this match
27.6
5/9 hit at 30.5
Online
28.6
6/10 hit at 30.5
Avg kills on Maps 1-2.
Late checks & sources
- Veto confirmed — re-check map order
- Confirm blood is in the starting five
- Re-check line: PASS at —
bo3.gg per-map player statsbo3.gg match scheduleWin chance: Polymarket 56.0%
prizepicks · Kills · Maps 1-2Risk
What to watch · Stays under with 30 kills or fewer: across ~41 rounds. Main danger: overtime (7.8%) or long close maps add rounds.
Side
Under
Projection
29.34
Raw edge
-1.2
Cons. hit
52.1%
EV+
-9.8%
Exp. rounds
40.9
Line
30.5
Verdict
Risk
Same-line track record · Under 28.5-32.5
All players · Kills
50.2%584 picks
This player
0%1 picks
Green = above the 57.7% a 2-pick needs. Graded picks only, pushes left out.
Evidence & risk
Last 10 series Maps 1-2: avg 28.2 kills vs line 30.5 (4/10 over). Next: vs Rooster, LAN.
Strongest: L10 average 28.2 against a 30.5 line
Biggest risk: Short maps lately — 19.8 rounds per map for these teams
- Short maps lately — 19.8 rounds per map for these teams
- 31% of recent maps were blowouts (13-5 or worse)
The read
Signal
ALIGNED
The call
PASS
Value
NO VALUE
- • Model 29.34 vs line 30.5 → -1.16 (-3.8%)
- • Form L5 60% · L10 60% under this line
- • Expected 40.9 rounds · 2-0 58.2% · OT 7.8%
Performance (last 40 maps)
Kills/Map
14.03
HS/Map
5.62
K/D
1.07
ADR
70.4
KAST
71.4%
Multi-kill
16.7%
Kills projection
Match context
Oct 26, 10:00 PM CTLANDFRAG Invitational 2026
Win chance source: Polymarket 56.0%
M1 Inferno
21.1r
M2 Mirage
19.8r
Total
40.9r
2-0 sweep58.2%
Long Map 2 (24+ rounds)23.5%
Overtime7.8%
Blowout (13-5 or worse)31.9%
2-0 sweep is info only — Maps 1-2 are played either way. Sweep from win chance + his team's 2-0 rate + opponent's 2-0 rate + 2 past meetings + market. Rounds & blowout from 40 his-team maps + 30 opponent maps + 4 past-meeting maps.
Veto confirmed (HLTV): Inferno / Mirage
Recent Maps 1-2 form
10 series · line 30.5 (Under) · avg 28.2 · hit 6/10 · tap a bar
30.5
Line movement
first 30.5→offno change
- Pulled30.5Oct 26, 10:02 PM
- Back on board30.5 → 30.5Oct 26, 10:01 PM
- Pulled30.5Oct 26, 10:00 PM
- First seen30.5Oct 26, 07:00 PM
Map stats
Inferno
12 maps
Kills
15.2
K/D
1.09
Dust2
7 maps
Kills
11.6
K/D
0.82
Nuke
6 maps
Kills
11.8
K/D
0.82
Mirage
6 maps
Kills
16.2
K/D
1.52
Ancient
4 maps
Kills
17
K/D
1.45
Overpass
2 maps
Kills
14.5
K/D
1.21
Anubis
2 maps
Kills
8.5
K/D
0.65
Cache
1 maps
Kills
16
K/D
1.45
Recent Maps 1-2 results
| Date | Opp | Map 1 | Map 2 | Total | Team | Prop | Flags |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-10-16 | Off Chops | 9 Dust2 7-13 | 12 Inferno 3-13 | 21 | L | Under ✓ | BO |
| 2026-10-16 | FlyQuest | 16 Cache 8-13 | 19 Inferno 9-13 | 35 | L | Over ✗ | |
| 2026-10-16 | Ground Zero | 6 Inferno 3-13 | 24 Ancient 13-6 | 30 | Split | Under ✓ | BO |
| 2026-10-11 | FlyQuest | 9 Dust2 6-13 | 9 Inferno 8-13 | 18 | L | Under ✓ | |
| 2026-10-11 | Ground Zero | 15 Inferno 13-8 | 18 Nuke 13-7 | 33 | W | Over ✗ | |
| 2026-10-11 | KZG | 22 Inferno 13-11 | 15 Dust2 13-8 | 37 | W | Over ✗ | |
| 2026-10-10 | Mindfreak | 5 Nuke 5-13 | 15 Ancient 13-7 | 20 | Split | Under ✓ | BO |
| 2026-10-10 | FlyQuest | 9 Dust2 4-13 | 10 Inferno 8-13 | 19 | L | Under ✓ | BO |
| 2026-09-26 | Ground Zero | 13 Inferno 11-13 | 15 Dust2 16-12 | 28 | Split | Under ✓ | OT |
| 2026-09-25 | Arcade | 16 Mirage 13-11 | 25 Inferno 19-15 | 41 | W | Over ✗ | OT |
| 2026-08-13 | Ground Zero | 6 Ancient 1-13 | 13 Anubis 8-13 | 19 | L | Under ✓ | BO |
| 2026-08-10 | Rooster | 9 Mirage 13-2 | 12 Dust2 13-6 | 21 | W | Under ✓ | BO |
| 2026-08-07 | Arcade | 17 Mirage 13-6 | 16 Inferno 16-14 | 33 | W | Over ✗ | OT |
| 2026-08-06 | Ground Zero | 8 Mirage 0-13 | 12 Dust2 11-13 | 20 | L | Under ✓ | BO |
| 2026-08-05 | Arcade | 25 Mirage 13-10 | 12 Nuke 7-13 | 37 | Split | Over ✗ | |
| 2026-07-17 | Mindfreak | 13 Nuke 6-13 | 22 Mirage 13-6 | 35 | Split | Over ✗ | |
| 2026-06-12 | MARKandLARRY | 15 Inferno 13-7 | 15 Overpass 6-13 | 30 | Split | Under ✓ | |
| 2026-06-09 | Rooster | 14 Overpass 13-6 | 6 Nuke 7-13 | 20 | Split | Under ✓ | |
| 2026-06-08 | MGLBROS | 20 Inferno 13-2 | 17 Nuke 13-9 | 37 | W | Over ✗ | BO |
