CS2 LAB
V1.0
KillsBetter playRisk
Line
30.5
Pick
OVER
Projection
32.02
Hit
53.6%
EV+
-7.2%
Edge
+1.5
L10
50%
HeadshotsRisk
Line
10
Pick
OVER
Projection
10.5
Hit
51.7%
EV+
-10.4%
Edge
+0.5
L10
40%
torzsi
AWPer
torzsi
MOUZ vs Liquid
52%HIT CHANCE
RISK · OVER 10
BEST OVER · UD 9.5PP10UD9.5
▲ L5 10.6 · L20 10.1Risk · Recent form (L5/L10) leans the other way +1
Hit rates at 10 (Over)
L5
60%
3/5
L10
40%
4/10
L20
45%
9/20
H2H
100%
1/1
Volatility
Low
±3.52
Previous meeting · vs Liquid
1/1 hit · avg 16 headshots on Maps 1-2
2026-10-24 · PGL Masters Bucharest 2026
Ancient 16-13 · Inferno 12-16 · Split
16
Over 10 ✓
LAN vs online form
LAN
10.1
9/20 hit at 10
Online · this match
—
no series
Avg headshots on Maps 1-2. The learned hit % now leans toward his form in this setting.
Late checks & sources
  • Veto confirmed — re-check map order
  • Confirm torzsi is in the starting five
  • Re-check line: PASS at 10
bo3.gg per-map player statsbo3.gg match schedule
prizepicks · Headshots · Maps 1-2Risk
What to watch · Needs 11+ HS (~34 kills at 32.8% HS): 0.681 KPR over ~45 rounds. His Kills line is 30.5: backing Kills Over needs ~3 fewer kills, usually the easier play. Main danger: a fast 2-0 (51.5%) or blowout (24.4%) cuts rounds.
Side
Over
Projection
10.5
Raw edge
+0.5
Cons. hit
51.7%
EV+
-10.4%
Rating
1.4/10
Exp. rounds
44.8
Line
10
Verdict
Risk
Plain model
51.7%
0 →
Learned
51.7%
learning 0x
Same-line track record · Over 8-12
All players · Headshots
48.3%151 picks
This player
66.7%3 picks
Green = above the 57.7% a 2-pick needs. Graded picks only, pushes left out.
raw 55.7% → −8% haircut · cap 68% · per-leg 1.732x · threshold ±2 (pref ±2.5)
  • Edge +0.5 below ±2.0 minimum
  • Recent form (L5/L10) does not lean the same way
  • EV+ not positive at current payout
Sharp checks · 5/5 active
L10 only 40% at this line (under 50%)
Big enough sample · 20 recent series (need 8+)
L10 hit rate ≥ 60%off · L10 40.0% at this line
L20 hit rate ≥ 55%off · L20 45.0% at this line
Game script fits · 44.8 exp. rounds (need 38+) · blowout 24% (under 40%)
Standard line · Standard payout line
Bo3 series · Maps 1-2 guaranteed
L10 form (4/10 rule) · L10 4/10 at this line · projection 0.7 from his L10 avg
Projection = model only (the replay showed the last-5 blend didn't help)
Evidence & risk

Last 10 series Maps 1-2: avg 9.8 headshots vs line 10.0 (4/10 over). KPR 0.69, HS 33%. Next: vs Liquid, LAN/Online unknown.

Strongest: L10 average 9.8 against a 10.0 line

Biggest risk: Normal CS2 variance

    The read
    Signal
    MIXED
    The call
    PASS
    Value
    NO VALUE
    • • Model 10.5 vs line 10 → +0.5 (5.0%)
    • • Form L5 60% · L10 40% over this line
    • • Win chance unknown — no favourite adjustment
    • • Expected 44.8 rounds · 2-0 51.5% · OT 14.4%
    Performance (last 40 maps)
    Kills/Map
    15.38
    HS/Map
    5.05
    K/D
    1.25
    KPR
    0.69
    ADR
    68.6
    KAST
    79%
    HS%
    32.8%
    Multi-kill
    16.7%
    Kills projection
    Map 1 (Ancient)5.7 · KPR 0.758 · 23.1r
    Map 2 (Inferno)4.8 · KPR 0.669 · 21.7r
    Required KPR to clear0.681
    Base kills (Maps 1-2)32.03
    Sweep / blowout / OT adj.-0.03%
    Final projected kills32.02
    × realistic HS% (32.8%)10.5
    Liquid gives up (41 series)-8.4% vs norm
    Likely HS totals · Maps 1-2
    Bars in colour cash the Over 10. Model: 55.7% before the safety haircut.
    23456789101112131415161718192021line 10
    Lopsided maps24.4%
    ~9 HS · 38r27.6%
    Normal44.8%
    ~11 HS · 45r47.3%
    Close maps16.4%
    ~11 HS · 48r56.5%
    Overtime14.4%
    ~13 HS · 54r71%
    Match context
    Oct 24, 5:00 AM CTOnline
    HLTV #4VRS #2HLTV #27VRS #23
    MOUZ Liquid
    Win chance source: —
    Win chance unknown — no favourite adjustment
    M1 Ancient
    23.1r
    +9% KPR here
    M2 Inferno
    21.7r
    -3% KPR here
    Total
    44.8r
    2-0 sweep51.5%
    Long Map 2 (24+ rounds)30.8%
    Overtime14.4%
    Blowout (13-5 or worse)24.4%

    2-0 sweep is info only — Maps 1-2 are played either way.

    Veto confirmed (HLTV): Ancient / Inferno

    Recent Maps 1-2 form
    10 series · line 10 (Over) · avg 9.8 · hit 4/10 · tap a bar
    10
    Nearby lines
    8 Over64.5%
    9 Over60.7%
    10 Over51.7%OFFERED
    11 Over45%below BE
    12 Over34.4%below BE
    Break-even per leg: 57.7%
    Becomes a PASS at: 10
    Line movement
    first 10→10no change
    1. Back on board10 → 10
      Oct 24, 05:16 PM
    2. Pulled10
      Oct 24, 04:11 AM
    3. Back on board10 → 10
      Oct 24, 04:10 AM
    4. Pulled10
      Oct 24, 04:10 AM
    5. First seen10
      Oct 23, 07:00 PM
    Map stats
    Mirage
    10 maps
    Kills
    13.7
    KPR
    0.63
    HS%
    27%
    K/D
    1.13
    Cache
    7 maps
    Kills
    13.3
    KPR
    0.64
    HS%
    34.4%
    K/D
    1.19
    Dust2
    7 maps
    Kills
    17
    KPR
    0.79
    HS%
    30.3%
    K/D
    1.61
    Inferno
    6 maps
    Kills
    14.3
    KPR
    0.66
    HS%
    36%
    K/D
    1.12
    Ancient
    6 maps
    Kills
    18.8
    KPR
    0.79
    HS%
    38.1%
    K/D
    1.33
    Nuke
    4 maps
    Kills
    16.8
    KPR
    0.74
    HS%
    34.3%
    K/D
    1.2
    Recent Maps 1-2 results
    DateOppMap 1Map 2TotalTeamPropFlags
    2026-10-24Liquid10 Ancient 16-136 Inferno 12-1616SplitOver ✓OT
    2026-10-11Vitality2 Cache 8-135 Inferno 7-137LUnder ✗
    2026-10-10Spirit9 Dust2 13-74 Mirage 5-1313SplitOver ✓BO
    2026-10-09FURIA7 Nuke 13-115 Inferno 13-612WOver ✓
    2026-10-05Spirit4 Dust2 13-51 Mirage 13-115WUnder ✗BO
    2026-10-04FURIA8 Cache 13-44 Mirage 13-712WOver ✓BO
    2026-10-03M806 Cache 13-94 Mirage 13-610WUnder ✗
    2026-09-19FURIA1 Cache 8-133 Mirage 19-164SplitUnder ✗OT
    2026-09-18Natus Vincere5 Cache 10-134 Inferno 13-109SplitUnder ✗
    2026-09-17NRG4 Cache 11-136 Inferno 13-510SplitUnder ✗BO
    2026-09-06Spirit9 Dust2 8-135 Mirage 13-1114SplitOver ✓
    2026-09-05Vitality3 Dust2 13-113 Mirage 13-76WUnder ✗
    2026-08-31Falcons5 Nuke 6-135 Ancient 13-610SplitUnder ✗
    2026-08-29Inner Circle3 Ancient 13-42 Mirage 13-55WUnder ✗BO
    2026-08-279z6 Cache 13-46 Nuke 13-712WOver ✓BO
    2026-08-21FUT3 Dust2 13-165 Ancient 5-138LUnder ✗OTBO
    2026-08-19GamerLegion6 Mirage 13-1114 Ancient 19-2220SplitOver ✓OT
    2026-08-16PARIVISION2 Dust2 13-45 Inferno 13-107WUnder ✗BO
    2026-08-14FUT6 Ancient 6-135 Nuke 16-1211SplitOver ✓OT
    2026-08-02Spirit6 Dust2 13-85 Mirage 13-411WOver ✓BO
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