KillsRisk
Line
31.5
Pick
UNDER
Projection
29.52
Hit
44.9%
EV+
-16.0%
Edge
-2.0
L10
50%
HeadshotsBetter playRisk
Line
11.5
Pick
UNDER
Projection
10.66
Hit
50.7%
EV+
-5.2%
Edge
-0.8
L10
60%
AWPer
sh1ro
Team Spirit vs BetBoom
RISK · UNDER 11.5
BEST UNDER · UD 11.5PP11UD11.5
▼ L5 9.4 · L20 11.4Risk · Edge -0.8 far below ±2.0LAN UNDER · 43% hit
Hit rates at 11.5 (Under)
L5
80%
4/5
L10
60%
6/10
L20
60%
12/20
H2H
N/A
Volatility
Low
±2.21
Previous meeting · vs BetBoom
No meeting with BetBoom in his last 20 series.
LAN vs online form
LAN · this match
11.4
12/20 hit at 11.5
Online
—
no series
Avg headshots on Maps 1-2. The learned hit % now leans toward his form in this setting.
Late checks & sources
- Map veto (currently estimated)
- Confirm sh1ro is in the starting five
- Re-check line: PASS at 11.5
bo3.gg per-map player statsbo3.gg match scheduleWin chance: Polymarket 79.5%
Unverified / missing: Maps 1-2 not confirmed
underdog · Headshots · Maps 1-2Risk
What to watch · Stays under with 11 HS or fewer (under ~33 kills at 36.1% HS): below 0.8 KPR over ~40 rounds. Main danger: overtime (7.8%) or long close maps add rounds.
Side
Under
Projection
10.66
Raw edge
-0.8
Cons. hit
50.7%
EV+
-5.2%
Rating
2.7/10
Exp. rounds
39.8
Line
11.5
Verdict
Risk
Plain model
50.7%
0 →
Learned
50.7%
what past results change
learning 0x
learning 0x
Same-line track record · Under 9.5-13.5
All players · Headshots
47.1%240 picks
This player
50%4 picks
Green = above the 57.7% a 2-pick needs. Graded picks only, pushes left out.
raw 64.9% → −8% haircut · cap 68% · per-leg 1.871x · threshold ±2 (pref ±2.5)
- Edge -0.8 below ±2.0 minimum
- EV+ not positive at current payout
- Under risk — team 80% to win; favourites win more rounds and their players usually get more kills.
Sharp checks · 5/5 active
Big enough sample · 20 recent series (need 8+)
L10 hit rate ≥ 60%off · L10 60.0% at this line
L20 hit rate ≥ 55%off · L20 60.0% at this line
Game script fits · OT 8% (under 22%) · 39.8 exp. rounds (under 47) · team 80% to win (not a 55-64% favourite)
Standard line · Standard payout line
Bo3 series · Maps 1-2 guaranteed
L10 form (4/10 rule) · L10 6/10 at this line · projection 0.2 from his L10 avg
Projection = model only (the replay showed the last-5 blend didn't help)
Evidence & risk
Last 10 series Maps 1-2: avg 10.9 headshots vs line 11.5 (4/10 over). KPR 0.74, HS 36%. Next: vs BetBoom, LAN.
Strongest: L10 average 10.9 against a 11.5 line
- Map veto not confirmed — Maps 1-2 estimated from recent map frequency
The read
Signal
ALIGNED
The call
PASS
Value
NO VALUE
- • Model 10.66 vs line 11.5 → -0.84 (-7.3%)
- • Form L5 80% · L10 60% under this line
- • Heavy favourite (≥70%) → −1.5 rounds/map (learned from 19 real matches) · kill rate +3% KPR
- • Expected 39.8 rounds · 2-0 60.6% · OT 7.8%
Performance (last 40 maps)
Kills/Map
15.8
HS/Map
5.7
K/D
1.29
KPR
0.74
ADR
75.8
KAST
73.7%
HS%
36.1%
Multi-kill
17.5%
Kills projection
Map 1 (Dust2)5.4 · KPR 0.749 · 20.1r
Map 2 (Mirage)5.3 · KPR 0.746 · 19.7r
Required KPR to clear0.8
Base kills (Maps 1-2)29.74
Sweep / blowout / OT adj.-0.75%
Final projected kills29.52
× realistic HS% (36.1%)10.66
BetBoom gives up (64 series)+5.3% vs norm
Likely HS totals · Maps 1-2
Bars in colour cash the Under 11.5. Model: 64.9% before the safety haircut.
Lopsided maps24.4%
~9 HS · 33r80.3%
Normal40.6%
~11 HS · 40r61.1%
Close maps27.2%
~11 HS · 43r53.2%
Overtime7.8%
~13 HS · 49r35.7%
Match context
Oct 24, 5:00 AM CTLANPGL Masters Bucharest 2026
Win chance source: Polymarket 79.5%
Heavy favourite (≥70%) → −1.5 rounds/map (learned from 19 real matches) · kill rate +3% KPR
Heads upUnder risk — team 80% to win; favourites win more rounds and their players usually get more kills.
M1 Dust2
20.1r
-2% KPR here
M2 Mirage
19.7r
-2% KPR here
Total
39.8r
2-0 sweep60.6%
Long Map 2 (24+ rounds)35%
Overtime7.8%
Blowout (13-5 or worse)24.4%
2-0 sweep is info only — Maps 1-2 are played either way.
Likely maps from his team's recent map frequency: Dust2 / Mirage
Recent Maps 1-2 form
10 series · line 11.5 (Under) · avg 10.9 · hit 6/10 · tap a bar
11.5
Nearby lines
| 9.5 Under | 21.8% | below BE |
| 10.5 Under | 36.1% | below BE |
| 11.5 Under | 50.7% | OFFERED |
| 12.5 Under | 61.5% | |
| 13.5 Under | 65.1% |
Break-even per leg: 53.5%
Becomes a PASS at: 11.5
Line movement
first 11.5→11.5no change
- First seen11.5Oct 23, 07:41 AM
Map stats
Dust2
12 maps
Kills
15.7
KPR
0.72
HS%
37.2%
K/D
1.29
Mirage
7 maps
Kills
15.1
KPR
0.72
HS%
35.8%
K/D
1.16
Cache
7 maps
Kills
13.4
KPR
0.64
HS%
37.2%
K/D
1.12
Ancient
6 maps
Kills
17.3
KPR
0.8
HS%
32.7%
K/D
1.62
Anubis
5 maps
Kills
16.6
KPR
0.71
HS%
36.1%
K/D
1.34
Nuke
3 maps
Kills
19
KPR
0.76
HS%
36.8%
K/D
1.33
Recent Maps 1-2 results
| Date | Opp | Map 1 | Map 2 | Total | Team | Prop | Flags |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-10-11 | Aurora | 8 Mirage 9-13 | 4 Anubis 6-13 | 12 | L | Over ✗ | |
| 2026-10-10 | MOUZ | 5 Dust2 7-13 | 5 Mirage 13-5 | 10 | Split | Under ✓ | BO |
| 2026-10-09 | Falcons | 6 Mirage 13-8 | 4 Anubis 13-10 | 10 | W | Under ✓ | |
| 2026-10-07 | M80 | 3 Dust2 13-6 | 5 Cache 13-10 | 8 | W | Under ✓ | |
| 2026-10-06 | 1win | 3 Cache 5-13 | 4 Anubis 9-13 | 7 | L | Under ✓ | BO |
| 2026-10-05 | MOUZ | 8 Dust2 5-13 | 4 Mirage 11-13 | 12 | L | Over ✗ | BO |
| 2026-10-04 | PARIVISION | 7 Ancient 11-13 | 6 Dust2 13-6 | 13 | Split | Over ✗ | |
| 2026-10-03 | ShindeN | 8 Dust2 11-13 | 3 Nuke 13-11 | 11 | Split | Under ✓ | |
| 2026-09-06 | MOUZ | 8 Dust2 13-8 | 7 Mirage 11-13 | 15 | Split | Over ✗ | |
| 2026-09-05 | Falcons | 6 Nuke 13-8 | 5 Ancient 13-11 | 11 | W | Under ✓ | |
| 2026-08-31 | FURIA | 5 Ancient 13-10 | 7 Cache 13-5 | 12 | W | Over ✗ | BO |
| 2026-08-28 | G2 | 2 Dust2 13-6 | 9 Cache 13-9 | 11 | W | Under ✓ | |
| 2026-08-26 | DENDELE | 5 Ancient 13-8 | 5 Cache 13-7 | 10 | W | Under ✓ | |
| 2026-08-23 | FUT | 4 Cache 10-13 | 9 Anubis 16-13 | 13 | Split | Over ✗ | OT |
| 2026-08-22 | Legacy | 4 Dust2 13-7 | 7 Ancient 13-9 | 11 | W | Under ✓ | |
| 2026-08-21 | Vitality | 9 Anubis 13-11 | 12 Nuke 14-16 | 21 | Split | Over ✗ | OT |
| 2026-08-20 | B8 | 4 Dust2 13-9 | 5 Mirage 13-9 | 9 | W | Under ✓ | |
| 2026-08-15 | BIG | 2 Cache 9-13 | 8 Dust2 13-10 | 10 | Split | Under ✓ | |
| 2026-08-13 | Luminosity | 5 Ancient 13-3 | 7 Dust2 19-15 | 12 | W | Over ✗ | OTBO |
| 2026-08-02 | MOUZ | 7 Dust2 8-13 | 3 Mirage 4-13 | 10 | L | Under ✓ | BO |
