KillsLean
Line
33
Pick
UNDER
Projection
28.68
Hit
49.4%
EV+
-14.5%
Edge
-4.3
L10
50%
HeadshotsBetter playLean
Line
17
Pick
UNDER
Projection
14.51
Hit
52.9%
EV+
-8.4%
Edge
-2.5
L10
60%
Rifler
KSCERATO
FURIA vs DENDELE
LEAN · UNDER 17
BEST UNDER · UD 17.5PP17UD17.5
▲ L5 17.2 · L20 16.4LAN UNDER · 43% hit
Hit rates at 17 (Under)
L5
60%
3/5
L10
60%
6/10
L20
55%
11/20
H2H
N/A
Volatility
Medium
±5.3
Previous meeting · vs DENDELE
No meeting with DENDELE in his last 20 series.
LAN vs online form
LAN · this match
16.4
11/20 hit at 17
Online
—
no series
Avg headshots on Maps 1-2. The learned hit % now leans toward his form in this setting.
Late checks & sources
- Map veto (currently estimated)
- Confirm KSCERATO is in the starting five
- Re-check line: PASS at 17
bo3.gg per-map player statsbo3.gg match scheduleWin chance: Polymarket 81.5%
Unverified / missing: Maps 1-2 not confirmed
prizepicks · Headshots · Maps 1-2Lean
What to watch · Stays under with 16 HS or fewer (under ~34 kills at 50.6% HS): below 0.819 KPR over ~41 rounds. Main danger: overtime (10%) or long close maps add rounds.
Side
Under
Projection
14.51
Raw edge
-2.5
Cons. hit
52.9%
EV+
-8.4%
Rating
2.5/10
Exp. rounds
41
Line
17
Verdict
Lean
Plain model
52.9%
0 →
Learned
52.9%
what past results change
learning 0x
learning 0x
Same-line track record · Under 15-19
All players · Headshots
43.9%326 picks
This player
75%4 picks
Green = above the 57.7% a 2-pick needs. Graded picks only, pushes left out.
raw 68.1% → −8% haircut · cap 68% · per-leg 1.732x · threshold ±2 (pref ±2.5)
- EV+ not positive at current payout
- Under risk — team 82% to win; favourites win more rounds and their players usually get more kills.
Sharp checks · 5/5 active
Big enough sample · 20 recent series (need 8+)
L10 hit rate ≥ 60%off · L10 60.0% at this line
L20 hit rate ≥ 55%off · L20 55.0% at this line
Game script fits · OT 10% (under 22%) · 41.0 exp. rounds (under 47) · team 82% to win (not a 55-64% favourite)
Standard line · Standard payout line
Bo3 series · Maps 1-2 guaranteed
L10 form (4/10 rule) · L10 6/10 at this line · projection 1.1 from his L10 avg
Projection = model only (the replay showed the last-5 blend didn't help)
Evidence & risk
Last 10 series Maps 1-2: avg 15.6 headshots vs line 16.5 (4/10 over). KPR 0.72, HS 51%. Next: vs DENDELE, LAN.
Strongest: L10 average 15.6 against a 16.5 line
- Map veto not confirmed — Maps 1-2 estimated from recent map frequency
The read
Signal
MIXED
The call
PASS
Value
NO VALUE
- • Model 14.51 vs line 17 → -2.49 (-14.6%)
- • Form L5 60% · L10 60% under this line
- • Heavy favourite (≥70%) → −1.5 rounds/map (learned from 19 real matches) · kill rate +3% KPR
- • Expected 41 rounds · 2-0 60.5% · OT 10%
Performance (last 40 maps)
Kills/Map
16.25
HS/Map
8.22
K/D
1.27
KPR
0.72
ADR
80.3
KAST
77%
HS%
50.6%
Multi-kill
18.4%
Kills projection
Map 1 (Mirage)7.7 · KPR 0.752 · 20.4r
Map 2 (Cache)6.8 · KPR 0.66 · 20.6r
Required KPR to clear0.819
Base kills (Maps 1-2)28.94
Sweep / blowout / OT adj.-0.91%
Final projected kills28.68
× realistic HS% (50.6%)14.51
DENDELE gives up (26 series)+6% vs norm
Likely HS totals · Maps 1-2
Bars in colour cash the Under 17. Model: 68.1% before the safety haircut.
Lopsided maps31.7%
~12 HS · 34r83.1%
Normal37.5%
~15 HS · 43r63.8%
Close maps20.8%
~16 HS · 44r60.4%
Overtime10%
~18 HS · 50r44.6%
Match context
Oct 24, 11:00 AM CTLANPGL Masters Bucharest 2026
Win chance source: Polymarket 81.5%
Heavy favourite (≥70%) → −1.5 rounds/map (learned from 19 real matches) · kill rate +3% KPR
Heads upUnder risk — team 82% to win; favourites win more rounds and their players usually get more kills.
M1 Mirage
20.4r
+1% KPR here
M2 Cache
20.6r
-12% KPR here
Total
41r
2-0 sweep60.5%
Long Map 2 (24+ rounds)30.8%
Overtime10%
Blowout (13-5 or worse)31.7%
2-0 sweep is info only — Maps 1-2 are played either way.
Likely maps from his team's recent map frequency: Mirage / Cache
Recent Maps 1-2 form
10 series · line 17 (Under) · avg 15.6 · hit 6/10 · tap a bar
17
Nearby lines
| 15 Under | 44.3% | below BE |
| 16 Under | 48.7% | below BE |
| 17 Under | 52.9% | OFFERED |
| 18 Under | 56.5% | below BE |
| 19 Under | 59.2% |
Break-even per leg: 57.7%
Becomes a PASS at: 17
Line movement
first 16.5→17+0.5
- Back on board17 → 17Oct 24, 05:16 PM
- Pulled17Oct 24, 05:15 PM
- Back on board16.5 → 17Oct 24, 05:15 PM
- Pulled16.5Oct 24, 11:10 AM
- First seen16.5Oct 23, 07:00 PM
Map stats
Mirage
10 maps
Kills
16.1
KPR
0.73
HS%
49.1%
K/D
1.15
Cache
7 maps
Kills
13.6
KPR
0.61
HS%
48.4%
K/D
1.01
Inferno
6 maps
Kills
16.2
KPR
0.78
HS%
52.6%
K/D
1.47
Ancient
6 maps
Kills
19.5
KPR
0.81
HS%
49.6%
K/D
1.36
Nuke
5 maps
Kills
16.8
KPR
0.79
HS%
52.4%
K/D
1.56
Dust2
5 maps
Kills
16
KPR
0.84
HS%
53.8%
K/D
1.4
Anubis
1 maps
Kills
16
KPR
0.76
HS%
50%
K/D
1.14
Recent Maps 1-2 results
| Date | Opp | Map 1 | Map 2 | Total | Team | Prop | Flags |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-10-18 | BetBoom | 15 Dust2 13-6 | 11 Ancient 16-19 | 26 | Split | Over ✗ | OT |
| 2026-10-17 | Aurora | 12 Dust2 13-8 | 9 Inferno 13-10 | 21 | W | Over ✗ | |
| 2026-10-15 | Legacy | 5 Cache 10-13 | 8 Inferno 13-5 | 13 | Split | Under ✓ | BO |
| 2026-10-14 | BetBoom | 5 Ancient 13-10 | 8 Mirage 13-9 | 13 | W | Under ✓ | |
| 2026-10-09 | MOUZ | 6 Nuke 11-13 | 7 Inferno 6-13 | 13 | L | Under ✓ | |
| 2026-10-07 | 9z | 11 Nuke 13-7 | 1 Inferno 13-3 | 12 | W | Under ✓ | BO |
| 2026-10-06 | Aurora | 9 Dust2 13-8 | 11 Mirage 9-13 | 20 | Split | Over ✗ | |
| 2026-10-05 | PARIVISION | 3 Ancient 7-13 | 5 Mirage 13-5 | 8 | Split | Under ✓ | BO |
| 2026-10-04 | MOUZ | 5 Cache 4-13 | 6 Mirage 7-13 | 11 | L | Under ✓ | BO |
| 2026-10-03 | BetBoom | 6 Mirage 13-5 | 13 Cache 16-14 | 19 | W | Over ✗ | OTBO |
| 2026-09-20 | Vitality | 5 Cache 5-13 | 8 Anubis 8-13 | 13 | L | Under ✓ | BO |
| 2026-09-19 | MIBR | 5 Mirage 13-8 | 10 Nuke 13-11 | 15 | W | Under ✓ | |
| 2026-09-19 | MOUZ | 9 Cache 13-8 | 14 Mirage 16-19 | 23 | Split | Over ✗ | OT |
| 2026-09-18 | Vitality | 10 Mirage 8-13 | 4 Dust2 5-13 | 14 | L | Under ✓ | BO |
| 2026-09-17 | MIBR | 14 Inferno 11-13 | 7 Nuke 13-6 | 21 | Split | Over ✗ | |
| 2026-09-11 | G2 | 14 Ancient 14-16 | 3 Dust2 3-13 | 17 | L | Under ✗ | OTBO |
| 2026-09-10 | Legacy | 7 Mirage 7-13 | 14 Ancient 9-13 | 21 | L | Over ✗ | |
| 2026-09-09 | PARIVISION | 11 Ancient 13-2 | 12 Inferno 13-11 | 23 | W | Over ✗ | BO |
| 2026-09-08 | GamerLegion | 3 Cache 11-13 | 7 Mirage 13-10 | 10 | Split | Under ✓ | |
| 2026-09-04 | Vitality | 10 Nuke 13-6 | 6 Cache 11-13 | 16 | Split | Under ✓ |
