KillsBetter playRisk
Line
27.5
Pick
OVER
Projection
28.15
Hit
54%
EV+
-6.5%
Edge
+0.7
L10
40%
HeadshotsRisk
Line
14.5
Pick
OVER
Projection
14.02
Hit
48.6%
EV+
-15.8%
Edge
-0.5
L10
50%
Rifler
Banjo
FOKUS vs ex-6666
RISK · OVER 27.5
▲ L5 29.8 · L20 28.5Risk · Edge +0.7 far below ±3.0
Hit rates at 27.5 (Over)
L5
60%
3/5
L10
40%
4/10
L20
47%
7/15
H2H
100%
1/1
Volatility
Low
±3.83
Previous meeting · vs ex-6666
1/1 hit · avg 34 kills on Maps 1-2
2026-10-24 · NODWIN Clutch Series 13
Ancient 13-3 · Nuke 16-13 · W
34
Over 27.5 ✓
LAN vs online form
LAN
25
0/4 hit at 27.5
Online · this match
29.8
7/11 hit at 27.5
Avg kills on Maps 1-2. The learned hit % now leans toward his form in this setting.
Late checks & sources
- Map veto (currently estimated)
- Confirm Banjo is in the starting five
- Re-check line: PASS at 27.5
bo3.gg per-map player statsbo3.gg match schedule
Unverified / missing: Maps 1-2 not confirmed
prizepicks · Kills · Maps 1-2Risk
What to watch · Needs 28+ kills: 0.615 KPR over ~45 rounds. Main danger: a fast 2-0 (52.6%) or blowout (20%) cuts rounds.
Side
Over
Projection
28.15
Raw edge
+0.7
Cons. hit
54%
EV+
-6.5%
Rating
4.3/10
Exp. rounds
44.7
Line
27.5
Verdict
Risk
Plain model
54%
0 →
Learned
54%
what past results change
learning 0x
learning 0x
Same-line track record · Over 25.5-29.5
All players · Kills
56.3%396 picks
This player
100%1 picks
Green = above the 57.7% a 2-pick needs. Graded picks only, pushes left out.
raw 50.5% → −8% haircut · cap 74% · per-leg 1.732x · threshold ±3 (pref ±4)
- Edge +0.7 below ±3.0 minimum
- EV+ not positive at current payout
Sharp checks · 6/6
Big enough sample · 15 recent series (need 8+)
L10 hit rate ≥ 60% · L10 40.0% at this line · gate off (replay: didn't help)
L20 hit rate ≥ 55% · L20 46.7% at this line · gate off (replay: didn't help)
Game script fits · 44.7 exp. rounds (need 38+) · blowout 20% (under 40%)
Standard line · Standard payout line
Bo3 series · Maps 1-2 guaranteed
Projection = model only (the replay showed the last-5 blend didn't help)
Evidence & risk
Last 10 series Maps 1-2: avg 28.5 kills vs line 27.5 (4/10 over). KPR 0.62, HS 50%. Next: vs ex-6666, LAN/Online unknown.
Strongest: L10 average 28.5 against a 27.5 line
Biggest risk: Map veto not confirmed — Maps 1-2 estimated from recent map frequency
- Map veto not confirmed — Maps 1-2 estimated from recent map frequency
The read
Signal
ALIGNED
The call
PASS
Value
NO VALUE
- • Model 28.15 vs line 27.5 → +0.65 (2.4%)
- • Form L5 60% · L10 40% over this line
- • Win chance unknown — no favourite adjustment
- • Expected 44.7 rounds · 2-0 52.6% · OT 15.7%
Performance (last 30 maps)
Kills/Map
14.27
HS/Map
7.17
K/D
0.99
KPR
0.63
ADR
70.2
KAST
74.7%
HS%
50.2%
Multi-kill
13.6%
Kills projection
Map 1 (Cache)14.4 · KPR 0.628 · 22.8r
Map 2 (Nuke)14.3 · KPR 0.649 · 21.9r
Required KPR to clear0.615
Base kills (Maps 1-2)28.53
Sweep / blowout / OT adj.+0.37%
Final projected kills28.64
ex-6666 gives up (29 series)+2.7% vs norm
Likely kills totals · Maps 1-2
Bars in colour cash the Over 27.5. Model: 50.5% before the safety haircut.
Lopsided maps20%
~24 kills · 38r21.5%
Normal51.6%
~28 kills · 44r49.8%
Close maps12.7%
~30 kills · 48r67%
Overtime15.7%
~34 kills · 54r86%
Match context
Oct 24, 08:00 AMOnline
Win chance source: —
Win chance unknown — no favourite adjustment
M1 Cache
22.8r
M2 Nuke
21.9r
+4% KPR here
Total
44.7r
2-0 sweep52.6%
Long Map 2 (24+ rounds)28.4%
Overtime15.7%
Blowout (13-5 or worse)20%
2-0 sweep is info only — Maps 1-2 are played either way.
Likely maps from his team's recent map frequency: Cache / Nuke
Recent Maps 1-2 form
10 series · line 27.5 (Over) · avg 28.5 · hit 4/10 · tap a bar
27.5
Nearby lines
| 25.5 Over | 61.8% | |
| 26.5 Over | 58.1% | |
| 27.5 Over | 54% | OFFERED |
| 28.5 Over | 49.7% | below BE |
| 29.5 Over | 45.5% | below BE |
Break-even per leg: 57.7%
Becomes a PASS at: 27.5
Line movement
first 27.5→offno change
- Pulled27.5Oct 24, 08:00 AM
- First seen27.5Oct 24, 12:00 AM
Map stats
Cache
10 maps
Kills
14.6
KPR
0.63
HS%
58.9%
K/D
1.04
Nuke
6 maps
Kills
14.7
KPR
0.66
HS%
47.7%
K/D
1
Dust2
5 maps
Kills
11.8
KPR
0.52
HS%
44.1%
K/D
0.92
Mirage
4 maps
Kills
17
KPR
0.62
HS%
50%
K/D
0.97
Anubis
3 maps
Kills
14.3
KPR
0.68
HS%
37.2%
K/D
0.96
Ancient
2 maps
Kills
12
KPR
0.65
HS%
45.8%
K/D
0.96
Recent Maps 1-2 results
| Date | Opp | Map 1 | Map 2 | Total | Team | Prop | Flags |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-10-24 | ex-6666 | 12 Ancient 13-3 | 22 Nuke 16-13 | 34 | W | Over ✓ | OTBO |
| 2026-10-21 | UNiTY | 13 Mirage 8-13 | 14 Cache 13-7 | 27 | Split | Under ✗ | |
| 2026-10-20 | ex-Zero Tenacity | 22 Cache 16-13 | 13 Nuke 13-7 | 35 | W | Over ✓ | OT |
| 2026-10-02 | BBL | 17 Nuke 13-5 | 6 Cache 4-13 | 23 | Split | Under ✗ | BO |
| 2026-09-28 | Nemiga | 6 Dust2 6-13 | 24 Mirage 20-22 | 30 | L | Over ✓ | OT |
| 2026-09-27 | Iberian Soul | 17 Anubis 13-11 | 15 Cache 13-7 | 32 | W | Over ✓ | |
| 2026-09-26 | SPARTA | 17 Dust2 14-16 | 10 Cache 13-7 | 27 | Split | Under ✗ | OT |
| 2026-09-21 | Sangal | 14 Dust2 13-3 | 12 Nuke 11-13 | 26 | Split | Under ✗ | BO |
| 2026-09-21 | Astralis | 13 Cache 11-13 | 12 Ancient 8-13 | 25 | L | Under ✗ | |
| 2026-09-21 | Sashi | 14 Dust2 13-11 | 12 Nuke 13-9 | 26 | W | Under ✗ | |
| 2026-09-13 | Sashi | 8 Dust2 13-11 | 12 Nuke 7-13 | 20 | Split | Under ✗ | |
| 2026-09-12 | Leo | 15 Cache 13-5 | 11 Anubis 13-2 | 26 | W | Under ✗ | BO |
| 2026-09-12 | Virtus.pro | 16 Cache 13-11 | 18 Mirage 10-13 | 34 | Split | Over ✓ | |
| 2026-09-10 | 1win | 20 Cache 19-17 | 15 Anubis 13-11 | 35 | W | Over ✓ | OT |
| 2026-09-09 | Ninjas in Pyjamas | 15 Cache 13-11 | 13 Mirage 13-10 | 28 | W | Over ✓ |
