KillsTake
Line
27.5
Pick
UNDER
Projection
23.24
Hit
61%
EV+
+5.7%
Edge
-4.3
L10
60%
HeadshotsBetter playPlayable
Line
15.5
Pick
UNDER
Projection
13.04
Hit
62.1%
EV+
+7.5%
Edge
-2.5
L10
70%
Rifler
rekonz
Rooster vs Abyssal
TAKE · UNDER 27.5
▼ L5 22.8 · L20 25.3LAN UNDER · 52% hit
Hit rates at 27.5 (Under)
L5
60%
3/5
L10
60%
6/10
L20
50%
10/20
H2H
100%
1/1
Volatility
Medium
Previous meeting · vs Abyssal
1/1 hit · avg 18 kills on Maps 1-2
2026-08-10 · DFRAG Open Series 6
Mirage 2-13 · Dust2 6-13 · L
18
Under 27.5 ✓
LAN vs online form
LAN · this match
22.5
4/6 hit at 27.5
Online
26.5
6/14 hit at 27.5
Avg kills on Maps 1-2.
Late checks & sources
- Veto confirmed — re-check map order
- Confirm rekonz is in the starting five
- Re-check line: PASS at —
bo3.gg per-map player statsbo3.gg match scheduleWin chance: Polymarket 44.0%
prizepicks · Kills · Maps 1-2Take
What to watch · Stays under with 27 kills or fewer: across ~41 rounds. Main danger: overtime (10%) or long close maps add rounds.
Side
Under
Projection
23.24
Raw edge
-4.3
Cons. hit
61%
EV+
+5.7%
Exp. rounds
40.9
Line
27.5
Verdict
Take
Same-line track record · Under 25.5-29.5
All players · Kills
45.6%621 picks
This player
0%1 picks
Green = above the 57.7% a 2-pick needs. Graded picks only, pushes left out.
Evidence & risk
Last 10 series Maps 1-2: avg 24.0 kills vs line 27.5 (4/10 over). Next: vs Abyssal, LAN.
Strongest: L10 average 24.0 against a 27.5 line
Biggest risk: Short maps lately — 19.8 rounds per map for these teams
- Short maps lately — 19.8 rounds per map for these teams
- 37% of recent maps were blowouts (13-5 or worse)
The read
Signal
ALIGNED
The call
PASS
Value
THIN
- • Model 23.24 vs line 27.5 → -4.26 (-15.5%)
- • Form L5 60% · L10 60% under this line
- • Expected 40.9 rounds · 2-0 59.1% · OT 10%
Performance (last 40 maps)
Kills/Map
12.65
HS/Map
7.1
K/D
0.95
ADR
66.3
KAST
72.5%
Multi-kill
13.5%
Kills projection
Match context
Oct 26, 10:00 PM CTLANDFRAG Invitational 2026
Win chance source: Polymarket 44.0%
M1 Inferno
21r
M2 Mirage
19.9r
Total
40.9r
2-0 sweep59.1%
Long Map 2 (24+ rounds)22.5%
Overtime10%
Blowout (13-5 or worse)37.4%
2-0 sweep is info only — Maps 1-2 are played either way. Sweep from win chance + his team's 2-0 rate + opponent's 2-0 rate + market. Rounds & blowout from 40 his-team maps + 24 opponent maps + 2 past-meeting maps.
Veto confirmed (HLTV): Inferno / Mirage
Recent Maps 1-2 form
10 series · line 27.5 (Under) · avg 24.0 · hit 6/10 · tap a bar
27.5
Line movement
first 27.5→offno change
- Pulled27.5Oct 26, 10:02 PM
- Back on board27.5 → 27.5Oct 26, 10:01 PM
- Pulled27.5Oct 26, 10:00 PM
- First seen27.5Oct 26, 07:00 PM
Map stats
Anubis
10 maps
Kills
11.1
K/D
0.9
Nuke
8 maps
Kills
12.8
K/D
0.82
Inferno
7 maps
Kills
11.9
K/D
0.94
Cache
7 maps
Kills
15.3
K/D
1.26
Mirage
5 maps
Kills
11.2
K/D
0.79
Dust2
3 maps
Kills
15.7
K/D
1.12
Recent Maps 1-2 results
| Date | Opp | Map 1 | Map 2 | Total | Team | Prop | Flags |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-10-17 | Off Chops | 12 Nuke 7-13 | 8 Cache 2-13 | 20 | L | Under ✓ | BO |
| 2026-10-17 | FlyQuest | 3 Anubis 1-13 | 13 Inferno 6-13 | 16 | L | Under ✓ | BO |
| 2026-10-15 | Mindfreak | 27 Cache 19-17 | 10 Mirage 13-4 | 37 | W | Over ✗ | OTBO |
| 2026-10-15 | NEXVOID | 10 Anubis 9-13 | 3 Inferno 4-13 | 13 | L | Under ✓ | BO |
| 2026-10-14 | MARKandLARRY | 14 Mirage 13-9 | 14 Cache 13-5 | 28 | W | Over ✗ | BO |
| 2026-10-13 | Fruju | 10 Inferno 13-3 | 13 Cache 13-6 | 23 | W | Under ✓ | BO |
| 2026-10-12 | LFO 8 | 17 Cache 13-8 | 19 Anubis 13-7 | 36 | W | Over ✗ | |
| 2026-09-27 | Ground Zero | 12 Anubis 13-6 | 17 Nuke 11-13 | 29 | Split | Over ✗ | |
| 2026-09-25 | FlyQuest | 6 Anubis 8-13 | 8 Nuke 3-13 | 14 | L | Under ✓ | BO |
| 2026-09-23 | Mindfreak | 15 Nuke 13-9 | 9 Cache 13-1 | 24 | W | Under ✓ | BO |
| 2026-08-30 | Arcade | 9 Nuke 13-7 | 6 Inferno 3-13 | 15 | Split | Under ✓ | BO |
| 2026-08-29 | MARKandLARRY | 18 Dust2 12-16 | 12 Mirage 13-11 | 30 | Split | Over ✗ | OT |
| 2026-08-28 | Ground Zero | 4 Anubis 4-13 | 24 Nuke 15-19 | 28 | L | Over ✗ | OTBO |
| 2026-08-26 | MARKandLARRY | 14 Inferno 13-2 | 18 Anubis 13-4 | 32 | W | Over ✗ | BO |
| 2026-08-11 | Mindfreak | 12 Inferno 9-13 | 15 Anubis 13-6 | 27 | Split | Under ✓ | |
| 2026-08-10 | Abyssal | 3 Mirage 2-13 | 15 Dust2 6-13 | 18 | L | Under ✓ | BO |
| 2026-08-04 | FURY | 17 Mirage 13-9 | 19 Cache 13-9 | 36 | W | Over ✗ | |
| 2026-08-03 | Finishers | 14 Dust2 13-4 | 17 Anubis 13-0 | 31 | W | Over ✗ | BO |
| 2026-07-17 | Mindfreak | 15 Nuke 9-13 | 25 Inferno 14-16 | 40 | L | Over ✗ | OT |
| 2026-07-17 | THUNDER dOWNUNDER | 2 Nuke 0-13 | 7 Anubis 4-13 | 9 | L | Under ✓ | BO |
