KillsLean
Line
26.5
Pick
UNDER
Projection
23.93
Hit
61.3%
EV+
+14.7%
Edge
-2.6
L10
60%
HeadshotsBetter playLean
Line
16.5
Pick
UNDER
Projection
14.74
Hit
62.2%
EV+
+16.4%
Edge
-1.8
L10
60%
Rifler
hfah
Brute vs INOX Division
LEAN · UNDER 26.5
SAME LINE ON ALL APPSPP26.5UD26.5
▲ L5 27.6 · L20 25.8
Hit rates at 26.5 (Under)
L5
60%
3/5
L10
60%
6/10
L20
50%
10/20
H2H
N/A
Volatility
Medium
±7.58
Previous meeting · vs INOX Division
No meeting with INOX Division in his last 20 series.
LAN vs online form
LAN
24.6
7/13 hit at 26.5
Online · this match
27.9
3/7 hit at 26.5
Avg kills on Maps 1-2. The learned hit % now leans toward his form in this setting.
Late checks & sources
- Map veto (currently estimated)
- Confirm hfah is in the starting five
- Re-check line: PASS at 26.5
bo3.gg per-map player statsbo3.gg match scheduleWin chance: Polymarket 41.0%
Unverified / missing: Maps 1-2 not confirmed
underdog · Kills · Maps 1-2Lean
What to watch · Stays under with 26 kills or fewer: below 0.654 KPR over ~41 rounds. Main danger: overtime (5.6%) or long close maps add rounds.
Side
Under
Projection
23.93
Raw edge
-2.6
Cons. hit
61.3%
EV+
+14.7%
Rating
5.5/10
Exp. rounds
40.5
Line
26.5
Verdict
Lean
Plain model
61.3%
0 →
Learned
61.3%
what past results change
learning 0x
learning 0x
Same-line track record · Under 24.5-28.5
All players · Kills
43.5%324 picks
This player
—0 picks
Green = above the 57.7% a 2-pick needs. Graded picks only, pushes left out.
raw 68.4% → −8% haircut · cap 74% · per-leg 1.871x · threshold ±3 (pref ±4)
- Edge -2.6 below ±3.0 minimum
Sharp checks · 6/6
Big enough sample · 20 recent series (need 8+)
L10 hit rate ≥ 60% · L10 60.0% at this line · gate off (replay: didn't help)
L20 hit rate ≥ 55% · L20 50.0% at this line · gate off (replay: didn't help)
Game script fits · OT 6% (under 22%) · 40.5 exp. rounds (under 47) · team 41% to win (not a 55-64% favourite)
Standard line · Standard payout line
Bo3 series · Maps 1-2 guaranteed
Projection = model only (the replay showed the last-5 blend didn't help)
Evidence & risk
Last 10 series Maps 1-2: avg 25.5 kills vs line 26.5 (4/10 over). KPR 0.60, HS 62%. Next: vs INOX Division, LAN/Online unknown.
Strongest: L10 average 25.5 against a 26.5 line
- 30% of recent maps were blowouts (13-5 or worse)
- Map veto not confirmed — Maps 1-2 estimated from recent map frequency
The read
Signal
MIXED
The call
PASS
Value
VALUE
- • Model 23.93 vs line 26.5 → -2.57 (-9.7%)
- • Form L5 60% · L10 60% under this line
- • Slight lean (40–45% / 65–70%) → ±0.0 rounds/map (learned from 6 real matches)
- • Expected 40.5 rounds · 2-0 58.7% · OT 5.6%
Performance (last 40 maps)
Kills/Map
12.88
HS/Map
8
K/D
0.96
KPR
0.6
ADR
66.1
KAST
73.7%
HS%
62.1%
Multi-kill
11.3%
Kills projection
Map 1 (Mirage)11.7 · KPR 0.604 · 19.7r
Map 2 (Dust2)12.6 · KPR 0.617 · 20.8r
Required KPR to clear0.654
Base kills (Maps 1-2)24.73
Sweep / blowout / OT adj.-1.57%
Final projected kills24.34
INOX Division gives up (57 series)-1.6% vs norm
Likely kills totals · Maps 1-2
Bars in colour cash the Under 26.5. Model: 68.4% before the safety haircut.
Lopsided maps31.6%
~20 kills · 34r84.1%
Normal50.1%
~25 kills · 43r59.1%
Close maps12.7%
~26 kills · 43r57.7%
Overtime5.6%
~29 kills · 49r39%
Match context
Oct 24, 02:00 PMOnline
Win chance source: Polymarket 41.0%
Slight lean (40–45% / 65–70%) → ±0.0 rounds/map (learned from 6 real matches)
Game scriptNeutral for Under — team 41% to win (ideal is 40% or lower).
M1 Mirage
19.7r
M2 Dust2
20.8r
+2% KPR here
Total
40.5r
2-0 sweep58.7%
Long Map 2 (24+ rounds)18.3%
Overtime5.6%
Blowout (13-5 or worse)31.6%
2-0 sweep is info only — Maps 1-2 are played either way.
Likely maps from his team's recent map frequency: Mirage / Dust2
Recent Maps 1-2 form
10 series · line 26.5 (Under) · avg 25.5 · hit 6/10 · tap a bar
26.5
Nearby lines
| 24.5 Under | 52.8% | below BE |
| 25.5 Under | 57.5% | |
| 26.5 Under | 61.3% | OFFERED |
| 27.5 Under | 64.3% | |
| 28.5 Under | 66.4% |
Break-even per leg: 53.5%
Becomes a PASS at: 26.5
Line movement
first 26.5→26.5no change
- Back on board26.5 → 26.5Oct 24, 12:53 PM
- Pulled26.5Oct 24, 12:53 PM
- First seen26.5Oct 24, 12:52 PM
Map stats
Mirage
9 maps
Kills
11.6
KPR
0.6
HS%
57.7%
K/D
0.9
Dust2
9 maps
Kills
12.8
KPR
0.62
HS%
62.6%
K/D
0.97
Anubis
8 maps
Kills
15.2
KPR
0.69
HS%
66.4%
K/D
1.1
Cache
5 maps
Kills
13.8
KPR
0.62
HS%
59.4%
K/D
1.03
Nuke
5 maps
Kills
11.6
KPR
0.58
HS%
65.5%
K/D
0.81
Ancient
3 maps
Kills
11
KPR
0.55
HS%
60.6%
K/D
0.87
Inferno
1 maps
Kills
14
KPR
0.61
HS%
57.1%
K/D
1
Recent Maps 1-2 results
| Date | Opp | Map 1 | Map 2 | Total | Team | Prop | Flags |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-10-24 | STATE | 9 Anubis 3-13 | 7 Nuke 1-13 | 16 | L | Under ✓ | BO |
| 2026-10-20 | los kogutos | 20 Anubis 13-10 | 22 Nuke 13-11 | 42 | W | Over ✗ | |
| 2026-10-17 | los kogutos | 15 Ancient 13-6 | 14 Cache 13-4 | 29 | W | Over ✗ | BO |
| 2026-09-26 | BRUTE | 13 Anubis 10-13 | 13 Mirage 10-13 | 26 | L | Under ✓ | |
| 2026-09-26 | BRUTE | 15 Mirage 13-1 | 10 Dust2 13-5 | 25 | W | Under ✓ | BO |
| 2026-09-25 | aimclub | 6 Mirage 6-13 | 11 Dust2 13-9 | 17 | Split | Under ✓ | |
| 2026-09-25 | BRUTE | 14 Inferno 10-13 | 15 Cache 16-12 | 29 | Split | Over ✗ | OT |
| 2026-09-21 | BRUTE | 10 Dust2 13-10 | 9 Mirage 13-7 | 19 | W | Under ✓ | |
| 2026-09-20 | BRUTE | 10 Mirage 11-13 | 10 Ancient 9-13 | 20 | L | Under ✓ | |
| 2026-09-17 | BRUTE | 18 Anubis 16-14 | 14 Mirage 13-8 | 32 | W | Over ✗ | OT |
| 2026-09-15 | BRUTE | 8 Ancient 6-13 | 13 Cache 13-11 | 21 | Split | Under ✓ | |
| 2026-09-01 | PCIFIC | 17 Dust2 11-13 | 15 Anubis 13-8 | 32 | Split | Over ✗ | |
| 2026-08-08 | Nexus | 12 Cache 7-13 | 16 Anubis 9-13 | 28 | L | Over ✗ | |
| 2026-08-08 | eSuba | 15 Anubis 13-8 | 12 Dust2 13-4 | 27 | W | Over ✗ | BO |
| 2026-08-07 | BRUTE | 18 Mirage 13-4 | 15 Dust2 5-13 | 33 | Split | Over ✗ | BO |
| 2026-08-02 | 9INE | 7 Mirage 3-13 | 8 Nuke 3-13 | 15 | L | Under ✓ | BO |
| 2026-08-02 | Acend | 9 Dust2 5-13 | 12 Mirage 13-5 | 21 | Split | Under ✓ | BO |
| 2026-08-02 | 9INE | 10 Dust2 13-10 | 15 Cache 13-9 | 25 | W | Under ✓ | |
| 2026-07-28 | ASTRAL | 16 Anubis 13-7 | 12 Nuke 10-13 | 28 | Split | Over ✗ | |
| 2026-07-28 | BRUTE | 9 Nuke 13-10 | 21 Dust2 13-9 | 30 | W | Over ✗ |
