CS2 LAB
V1.0
KillsBetter playPlayable
Line
32
Pick
OVER
Projection
35.32
Hit
62.2%
EV+
+7.7%
Edge
+3.3
L10
60%
HeadshotsPlayable
Line
17.5
Pick
OVER
Projection
19.82
Hit
60.2%
EV+
+4.2%
Edge
+2.3
L10
50%
xerolte
Rifler
xerolte
NEXVOID vs Off Chops
60%HIT CHANCE
PLAYABLE · OVER 17.5
PP17.5
▲ L5 20.2 · L20 19.2
Hit rates at 17.5 (Over)
L5
80%
4/5
L10
50%
5/10
L20
55%
11/20
H2H
0%
0/1
Volatility
Medium
±4.78
Previous meeting · vs Off Chops
0/1 hit · avg 17 headshots on Maps 1-2
2026-10-18 · Logitech G Pro Series 2026
Dust2 19-17 · Inferno 13-9 · W
17
Under 17.5 ✗
LAN vs online form
LAN · this match
18.1
7/13 hit at 17.5
Online
21.3
4/7 hit at 17.5
Avg headshots on Maps 1-2. The learned hit % now leans toward his form in this setting.
Late checks & sources
  • Map veto (currently estimated)
  • Confirm xerolte is in the starting five
  • Re-check line: PASS at 18
bo3.gg per-map player statsbo3.gg match schedule
Unverified / missing: Maps 1-2 not confirmed
prizepicks · Headshots · Maps 1-2Playable
What to watch · Needs 18+ HS (~32 kills at 56.1% HS): 0.719 KPR over ~43 rounds. Main danger: a fast 2-0 (58.5%) or blowout (23.1%) cuts rounds.
Side
Over
Projection
19.82
Raw edge
+2.3
Cons. hit
60.2%
EV+
+4.2%
Rating
7.7/10
Exp. rounds
43.4
Line
17.5
Verdict
Playable
Plain model
60.2%
0 →
Learned
60.2%
learning 0x
Same-line track record · Over 15.5-19.5
All players · Headshots
55.6%340 picks
This player
—0 picks
Green = above the 57.7% a 2-pick needs. Graded picks only, pushes left out.
raw 68.6% → −8% haircut · cap 68% · per-leg 1.732x · threshold ±2 (pref ±2.5)
Clears edge, form, EV+, volatility and every sharp check
Sharp checks · 5/5 active
Big enough sample · 20 recent series (need 8+)
L10 hit rate ≥ 60%off · L10 50.0% at this line
L20 hit rate ≥ 55%off · L20 55.0% at this line
Game script fits · 43.4 exp. rounds (need 38+) · blowout 23% (under 40%)
Standard line · Standard payout line
Bo3 series · Maps 1-2 guaranteed
L10 form (4/10 rule) · L10 5/10 at this line · projection 2.1 from his L10 avg
Projection = model only (the replay showed the last-5 blend didn't help)
Evidence & risk

Last 10 series Maps 1-2: avg 17.7 headshots vs line 17.5 (5/10 over). KPR 0.75, HS 56%. Next: vs Off Chops, LAN.

Strongest: L10 average 17.7 against a 17.5 line

Biggest risk: Map veto not confirmed — Maps 1-2 estimated from recent map frequency

  • Map veto not confirmed — Maps 1-2 estimated from recent map frequency
The read
Signal
ALIGNED
The call
TAKE OVER
Value
THIN
  • • Model 19.82 vs line 17.5 → +2.32 (13.3%)
  • • Form L5 80% · L10 50% over this line
  • • Win chance unknown — no favourite adjustment
  • • Expected 43.4 rounds · 2-0 58.5% · OT 12.2%
Performance (last 40 maps)
Kills/Map
17.1
HS/Map
9.6
K/D
1.17
KPR
0.76
ADR
84.3
KAST
72.2%
HS%
56.1%
Multi-kill
19.4%
Kills projection
Map 1 (Ancient)9.6 · KPR 0.762 · 22.4r
Map 2 (Inferno)10.3 · KPR 0.872 · 21r
Required KPR to clear0.719
Base kills (Maps 1-2)35.38
Sweep / blowout / OT adj.-0.17%
Final projected kills35.32
× realistic HS% (56.1%)19.82
Likely HS totals · Maps 1-2
Bars in colour cash the Over 17.5. Model: 68.6% before the safety haircut.
8910111213141516171819202122232425262728293031323334line 17.5
Lopsided maps23.1%
~17 HS · 37r40.3%
Normal54.4%
~20 HS · 44r69.5%
Close maps10.3%
~21 HS · 46r77.9%
Overtime12.2%
~24 HS · 52r90.6%
Match context
Oct 27, 10:00 PM CTLANDFRAG Invitational 2026
HLTV #77VRS #70HLTV #131VRS #123
NEXVOID Off Chops
Win chance source: —
Win chance unknown — no favourite adjustment
M1 Ancient
22.4r
+1% KPR here
M2 Inferno
21r
+15% KPR here
Total
43.4r
2-0 sweep58.5%
Long Map 2 (24+ rounds)22.5%
Overtime12.2%
Blowout (13-5 or worse)23.1%

2-0 sweep is info only — Maps 1-2 are played either way. Sweep from win chance + his team's 2-0 rate + opponent's 2-0 rate. Rounds & blowout from 40 his-team maps + 16 opponent maps + 2 past-meeting maps.

Likely maps from his team's recent map frequency: Ancient / Inferno

Recent Maps 1-2 form
10 series · line 17.5 (Over) · avg 17.7 · hit 5/10 · tap a bar
17.5
Nearby lines
15.5 Over64.9%
16.5 Over63.6%
17.5 Over60.2%OFFERED
18.5 Over54.7%below BE
19.5 Over49.9%below BE
Break-even per leg: 57.7%
Becomes a PASS at: 18
Line movement
first 17.5→17.5no change
  1. First seen17.5
    Oct 26, 09:41 PM
Map stats
Ancient
12 maps
Kills
17.8
KPR
0.76
HS%
58.4%
K/D
1.16
Inferno
10 maps
Kills
17.5
KPR
0.91
HS%
52.6%
K/D
1.47
Dust2
8 maps
Kills
14.8
KPR
0.68
HS%
61%
K/D
0.96
Nuke
5 maps
Kills
19.2
KPR
0.74
HS%
55.2%
K/D
1.07
Cache
3 maps
Kills
16
KPR
0.76
HS%
39.6%
K/D
1.12
Anubis
2 maps
Kills
16.5
KPR
0.77
HS%
69.7%
K/D
1.18
Recent Maps 1-2 results
DateOppMap 1Map 2TotalTeamPropFlags
2026-10-26Ground Zero10 Ancient 13-1111 Anubis 13-821WOver ✓
2026-10-23Rare Atom10 Dust2 10-138 Ancient 11-1318LOver ✓
2026-10-22Morningstar9 Dust2 13-619 Ancient 13-728WOver ✓
2026-10-21Chinggis Warriors3 Inferno 1-1311 Cache 13-1014SplitUnder ✗BO
2026-10-20Vitalem Aerem8 Dust2 5-1312 Inferno 13-1020SplitOver ✓BO
2026-10-18FlyQuest5 Ancient 13-78 Dust2 6-1313SplitUnder ✗
2026-10-18Off Chops7 Dust2 19-1710 Inferno 13-917WUnder ✗OT
2026-10-17FlyQuest8 Ancient 16-143 Dust2 2-1311SplitUnder ✗OTBO
2026-10-15Rooster12 Anubis 13-99 Inferno 13-421WOver ✓BO
2026-10-15Mindfreak5 Cache 13-79 Inferno 13-514WUnder ✗BO
2026-10-11Chinggis Warriors9 Nuke 13-95 Ancient 7-1314SplitUnder ✗
2026-10-105star9 Ancient 13-517 Inferno 12-1626SplitOver ✓OTBO
2026-10-08The Huns11 Ancient 13-107 Inferno 13-518WOver ✓BO
2026-09-29Lynn Vision7 Ancient 11-138 Nuke 13-1115SplitUnder ✗
2026-09-28The Huns24 Nuke 22-2017 Ancient 13-1141WOver ✓OT
2026-09-27Lynn Vision18 Ancient 14-165 Nuke 5-1323LOver ✓OTBO
2026-09-25Legion10 Dust2 13-610 Inferno 13-720WOver ✓
2026-09-23Just Swing3 Cache 7-136 Inferno 13-49SplitUnder ✗BO
2026-09-22bLight blue17 Dust2 13-119 Inferno 13-326WOver ✓BO
2026-09-03Chinggis Warriors7 Nuke 11-138 Ancient 10-1315LUnder ✗
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