KillsRisk
Line
24.5
Pick
UNDER
Projection
23.39
Hit
43.9%
EV+
-17.8%
Edge
-1.1
L10
30%
HeadshotsBetter playRisk
Line
13.5
Pick
UNDER
Projection
12.65
Hit
47.2%
EV+
-11.7%
Edge
-0.8
L10
40%
Rifler · IGL
MisteM
Eternal Fire vs Team Nemesis
RISK · UNDER 24.5
BEST UNDER · PP 25.5PP25.5UD24.5
▲ L5 29.2 · L20 26.8LAN UNDER · 52% hitL10 4/10 BLOCK
Hit rates at 24.5 (Under)
L5
20%
1/5
L10
30%
3/10
L20
35%
6/17
H2H
N/A
Volatility
Medium
Previous meeting · vs Team Nemesis
No meeting with Team Nemesis in his last 17 series.
LAN vs online form
LAN · this match
27
5/14 hit at 24.5
Online
25.7
1/3 hit at 24.5
Avg kills on Maps 1-2.
Late checks & sources
- Map veto (currently estimated)
- Confirm MisteM is in the starting five
- Re-check line: PASS at —
bo3.gg per-map player statsbo3.gg match scheduleWin chance: Polymarket 88.0%
Unverified / missing: Maps 1-2 not confirmed
underdog · Kills · Maps 1-2Risk
What to watch · Stays under with 24 kills or fewer: across ~38 rounds. Main danger: overtime (21.8%) or long close maps add rounds.
Side
Under
Projection
23.39
Raw edge
-1.1
Cons. hit
43.9%
EV+
-17.8%
Exp. rounds
38.4
Line
24.5
Verdict
Risk
Same-line track record · Under 22.5-26.5
All players · Kills
45.1%275 picks
This player
20%5 picks
Green = above the 57.7% a 2-pick needs. Graded picks only, pushes left out.
Evidence & risk
Last 10 series Maps 1-2: avg 29.0 kills vs line 24.5 (7/10 over). Next: vs Nemesis, LAN.
Strongest: L10 average 29.0 against a 24.5 line
Biggest risk: Map veto not confirmed — Maps 1-2 estimated from recent map frequency
- Map veto not confirmed — Maps 1-2 estimated from recent map frequency
The read
Signal
MIXED
The call
PASS
Value
NO VALUE
- • Model 23.39 vs line 24.5 → -1.11 (-4.5%)
- • Form L5 20% · L10 30% under this line
- • Expected 38.4 rounds · 2-0 59% · OT 21.8%
Performance (last 34 maps)
Kills/Map
13.38
HS/Map
7.24
K/D
0.84
ADR
69.4
KAST
72.7%
Multi-kill
12.1%
Kills projection
Team Nemesis gives up (35 series)-12.2% vs norm
Match context
Oct 28, 8:30 AM CTLANStake Ranked Episode 5
Win chance source: Polymarket 81.5% · live
M1 Mirage
19.6r
M2 Cache
18.8r
Total
38.4r
2-0 sweep59%
Long Map 2 (24+ rounds)44.8%
Overtime21.8%
Blowout (13-5 or worse)36%
2-0 sweep is info only — Maps 1-2 are played either way. Sweep from win chance + his team's 2-0 rate + opponent's 2-0 rate + market. Rounds & blowout from 34 his-team maps + 30 opponent maps + 0 past-meeting maps.
Likely maps from his team's recent map frequency: Mirage / Cache
Recent Maps 1-2 form
10 series · line 24.5 (Under) · avg 29.0 · hit 3/10 · tap a bar
24.5
Line movement
first 24.5→24.5no change
- First seen24.5Oct 27, 08:04 PM
Map stats
Mirage
9 maps
Kills
12.4
K/D
0.79
Cache
8 maps
Kills
12
K/D
0.88
Dust2
7 maps
Kills
16
K/D
0.99
Anubis
4 maps
Kills
12.8
K/D
0.72
Inferno
3 maps
Kills
9.3
K/D
0.65
Ancient
3 maps
Kills
18.7
K/D
0.85
Recent Maps 1-2 results
| Date | Opp | Map 1 | Map 2 | Total | Team | Prop | Flags |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-10-27 | MIBR | 18 Ancient 13-10 | 14 Mirage 10-13 | 32 | Split | Over ✗ | |
| 2026-10-23 | SINNERS | 14 Mirage 6-13 | 15 Cache 16-12 | 29 | Split | Over ✗ | OT |
| 2026-10-23 | JiJieHao | 22 Ancient 22-20 | 9 Inferno 7-13 | 31 | Split | Over ✗ | OT |
| 2026-10-22 | SINNERS | 15 Mirage 13-10 | 17 Cache 14-16 | 32 | Split | Over ✗ | OT |
| 2026-10-21 | BC.Game | 6 Mirage 6-13 | 16 Ancient 13-9 | 22 | Split | Under ✓ | |
| 2026-10-21 | BASEMENT BOYS | 10 Mirage 8-13 | 14 Cache 13-7 | 24 | Split | Under ✓ | |
| 2026-10-20 | INFINITE | 9 Cache 13-1 | 23 Dust2 22-20 | 32 | W | Over ✗ | OTBO |
| 2026-10-03 | Ninjas in Pyjamas | 4 Dust2 4-13 | 10 Inferno 11-13 | 14 | L | Under ✓ | BO |
| 2026-10-03 | JiJieHao | 27 Dust2 19-15 | 19 Mirage 11-13 | 46 | Split | Over ✗ | OT |
| 2026-10-03 | Sangal | 15 Dust2 13-5 | 13 Cache 13-11 | 28 | W | Over ✗ | BO |
| 2026-10-02 | BASEMENT BOYS | 14 Mirage 12-16 | 14 Cache 13-7 | 28 | Split | Over ✗ | OT |
| 2026-09-27 | K27 | 14 Dust2 13-8 | 15 Mirage 13-8 | 29 | W | Over ✗ | |
| 2026-09-26 | Nuclear TigeRES | 9 Anubis 7-13 | 11 Dust2 13-8 | 20 | Split | Under ✓ | |
| 2026-09-25 | WBT | 8 Cache 13-6 | 20 Anubis 19-17 | 28 | W | Over ✗ | OT |
| 2026-09-24 | Betclic | 6 Cache 4-13 | 14 Anubis 16-13 | 20 | Split | Under ✓ | OTBO |
| 2026-09-24 | ASTRAL | 9 Inferno 13-6 | 18 Dust2 13-10 | 27 | W | Over ✗ | |
| 2026-09-24 | JiJieHao | 8 Anubis 10-13 | 5 Mirage 2-13 | 13 | L | Under ✓ | BO |
