CS2 LAB
V1.0
KillsBetter playLean
Line
23.5
Pick
OVER
Projection
27.64
Hit
66.8%
EV+
+15.7%
Edge
+4.1
L10
60%
HeadshotsLean
Line
13.5
Pick
OVER
Projection
15.82
Hit
65.5%
EV+
+13.4%
Edge
+2.3
L10
60%
nin9
Rifler
nin9
The MongolZ vs Aurora
66%HIT CHANCE
LEAN · OVER 13.5
SAME LINE ON ALL APPSPP13.5UD13.5
▼ L5 14.8 · L20 16.1
Hit rates at 13.5 (Over)
L5
60%
3/5
L10
60%
6/10
L20
75%
15/20
H2H
100%
1/1
Volatility
High
±7.35
Previous meeting · vs Aurora
1/1 hit · avg 18 headshots on Maps 1-2
2026-10-24 · PGL Masters Bucharest 2026
Inferno 12-16 · Nuke 13-2 · Split
18
Over 13.5 ✓
LAN vs online form
LAN
15.4
4/7 hit at 13.5
Online · this match
16.4
11/13 hit at 13.5
Avg headshots on Maps 1-2. The learned hit % now leans toward his form in this setting.
Late checks & sources
  • Map veto (currently estimated)
  • Confirm nin9 is in the starting five
  • Re-check line: PASS at 14
bo3.gg per-map player statsbo3.gg match schedule
Unverified / missing: Maps 1-2 not confirmed
prizepicks · Headshots · Maps 1-2Lean
What to watch · Needs 14+ HS (~24 kills at 57.7% HS): 0.548 KPR over ~43 rounds. Main danger: a fast 2-0 (51.5%) or blowout (22.2%) cuts rounds.
Side
Over
Projection
15.82
Raw edge
+2.3
Cons. hit
65.5%
EV+
+13.4%
Rating
5.5/10
Exp. rounds
42.7
Line
13.5
Verdict
Lean
Plain model
65.5%
0 →
Learned
65.5%
learning 0x
Same-line track record · Over 11.5-15.5
All players · Headshots
56.8%287 picks
This player
25%4 picks
Green = above the 57.7% a 2-pick needs. Graded picks only, pushes left out.
raw 67.6% → −8% haircut · cap 74% · per-leg 1.732x · threshold ±2 (pref ±2.5)
  • High form volatility
Sharp checks · 6/6
Big enough sample · 20 recent series (need 8+)
L10 hit rate ≥ 60% · L10 60.0% at this line · gate off (replay: didn't help)
L20 hit rate ≥ 55% · L20 75.0% at this line · gate off (replay: didn't help)
Game script fits · 42.7 exp. rounds (need 38+) · blowout 22% (under 40%)
Standard line · Standard payout line
Bo3 series · Maps 1-2 guaranteed
Projection = model only (the replay showed the last-5 blend didn't help)
Evidence & risk

Last 10 series Maps 1-2: avg 15.9 headshots vs line 15.0 (5/10 over). KPR 0.68, HS 58%. Next: vs Aurora, LAN/Online unknown.

Strongest: L10 average 15.9 against a 15.0 line

Biggest risk: Map veto not confirmed — Maps 1-2 estimated from recent map frequency

  • Map veto not confirmed — Maps 1-2 estimated from recent map frequency
The read
Signal
ALIGNED
The call
SMALL EDGE ONLY
Value
VALUE
  • • Model 15.82 vs line 13.5 → +2.32 (17.2%)
  • • Form L5 60% · L10 60% over this line
  • • Win chance unknown — no favourite adjustment
  • • Expected 42.7 rounds · 2-0 51.5% · OT 7.8%
Performance (last 40 maps)
Kills/Map
13.9
HS/Map
8.03
K/D
0.98
KPR
0.68
ADR
77.2
KAST
72%
HS%
57.7%
Multi-kill
18.8%
Kills projection
Map 1 (Inferno)7.4 · KPR 0.615 · 21.1r
Map 2 (Dust2)8.8 · KPR 0.709 · 21.6r
Required KPR to clear0.548
Base kills (Maps 1-2)28.29
Sweep / blowout / OT adj.-0.60%
Final projected kills28.12
× realistic HS% (57.7%)15.82
Aurora gives up (91 series)-0.5% vs norm
Likely HS totals · Maps 1-2
Bars in colour cash the Over 13.5. Model: 67.6% before the safety haircut.
567891011121314151617181920212223242526272829line 13.5
Lopsided maps22.2%
~13 HS · 36r43.2%
Normal47%
~16 HS · 43r58.8%
Close maps23%
~17 HS · 46r64.2%
Overtime7.8%
~19 HS · 52r74.7%
Match context
Oct 24, 07:00 AMOnline
HLTV #20VRS #18HLTV #5VRS #5
The MongolZ Aurora
Win chance source: —
Win chance unknown — no favourite adjustment
M1 Inferno
21.1r
-10% KPR here
M2 Dust2
21.6r
+4% KPR here
Total
42.7r
2-0 sweep51.5%
Long Map 2 (24+ rounds)30.8%
Overtime7.8%
Blowout (13-5 or worse)22.2%

2-0 sweep is info only — Maps 1-2 are played either way.

Likely maps from his team's recent map frequency: Inferno / Dust2

Recent Maps 1-2 form
10 series · line 13.5 (Over) · avg 15.9 · hit 6/10 · tap a bar
13.5
Nearby lines
11.5 Over70.5%
12.5 Over68.6%
13.5 Over65.5%OFFERED
14.5 Over60.6%
15.5 Over54.3%below BE
Break-even per leg: 57.7%
Becomes a PASS at: 14
Line movement
first 15→13.5-1.5
  1. Back on board14.5 → 13.5
    Oct 24, 09:06 PM
  2. Pulled14.5
    Oct 24, 07:00 AM
  3. Moved down15 → 14.5
    Oct 24, 03:08 AM
  4. First seen15
    Oct 24, 12:00 AM
Map stats
Inferno
10 maps
Kills
12.5
KPR
0.6
HS%
55.2%
K/D
0.89
Dust2
10 maps
Kills
15.5
KPR
0.72
HS%
64.5%
K/D
1.05
Ancient
8 maps
Kills
14.4
KPR
0.69
HS%
57.4%
K/D
1.07
Mirage
5 maps
Kills
11.8
KPR
0.62
HS%
50.8%
K/D
0.92
Cache
4 maps
Kills
10.2
KPR
0.53
HS%
53.7%
K/D
0.79
Nuke
3 maps
Kills
20.3
KPR
0.77
HS%
55.7%
K/D
1.13
Recent Maps 1-2 results
DateOppMap 1Map 2TotalTeamPropFlags
2026-10-24Aurora9 Inferno 12-169 Nuke 13-218SplitOver ✓OTBO
2026-10-22PARIVISION10 Ancient 13-611 Mirage 13-1121WOver ✓
2026-10-22BIG3 Cache 4-137 Inferno 13-310SplitUnder ✗BO
2026-10-21PRIVATE8 Mirage 13-66 Ancient 13-714WOver ✓
2026-10-21magic3 Inferno 13-98 Ancient 13-1011WUnder ✗
2026-10-20BIG5 Cache 8-135 Mirage 4-1310LUnder ✗BO
2026-10-19Alliance13 Inferno 13-811 Dust2 13-1124WOver ✓
2026-09-28NEXVOID17 Nuke 20-2212 Ancient 11-1329LOver ✓OT
2026-09-27The Huns4 Ancient 13-115 Dust2 13-1019WOver ✓BO
2026-09-26The Huns2 Dust2 3-131 Mirage 13-83SplitUnder ✗BO
2026-09-25Lynn Vision8 Nuke 9-138 Inferno 11-1316LOver ✓
2026-09-23XDM5 Inferno 7-1310 Ancient 13-1115SplitOver ✓
2026-09-22The KnockoutX13 Dust2 13-96 Ancient 9-1319SplitOver ✓
2026-09-02The Huns5 Inferno 7-1315 Dust2 13-920SplitOver ✓
2026-09-02Kaleido6 Inferno 5-1313 Dust2 7-1319LOver ✓BO
2026-09-02The Huns3 Inferno 6-135 Mirage 1-138LUnder ✗BO
2026-09-01The Huns4 Dust2 7-1310 Inferno 13-914SplitOver ✓
2026-08-31The Huns6 Cache 13-78 Dust2 13-214WOver ✓BO
2026-08-29The Huns7 Dust2 13-1110 Ancient 7-1317SplitOver ✓
2026-08-28The Huns8 Cache 13-612 Dust2 14-1620SplitOver ✓OT
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