KillsBetter playRisk
Line
25.5
Pick
OVER
Projection
27.3
Hit
58.3%
EV+
+9.1%
Edge
+1.8
L10
80%
HeadshotsRisk
Line
13.5
Pick
OVER
Projection
14.66
Hit
52%
EV+
-2.8%
Edge
+1.2
L10
50%
Rifler
dgt
9z Team vs Team Vitality
RISK · OVER 13.5
SAME LINE ON ALL APPSPP13.5UD13.5
▼ L5 12.4 · L20 16.0Risk · Edge +1.2 far below ±2.0 +1
Hit rates at 13.5 (Over)
L5
20%
1/5
L10
50%
5/10
L20
55%
11/20
H2H
0%
0/1
Volatility
Low
±3.73
Previous meeting · vs Team Vitality
0/1 hit · avg 12 headshots on Maps 1-2
2026-08-29 · BLAST Open Fall 2026
Dust2 2-13 · Nuke 6-13 · L
12
Under 13.5 ✗
LAN vs online form
LAN · this match
16
11/20 hit at 13.5
Online
—
no series
Avg headshots on Maps 1-2. The learned hit % now leans toward his form in this setting.
Late checks & sources
- Map veto (currently estimated)
- Confirm dgt is in the starting five
- Re-check line: PASS at 13.5
bo3.gg per-map player statsbo3.gg match scheduleWin chance: Polymarket 14.5%
Unverified / missing: Maps 1-2 not confirmed
underdog · Headshots · Maps 1-2Risk
What to watch · Needs 14+ HS (~26 kills at 53.7% HS): 0.621 KPR over ~41 rounds. Main danger: a fast 2-0 (65.4%) or blowout (32.9%) cuts rounds.
Side
Over
Projection
14.66
Raw edge
+1.2
Cons. hit
52%
EV+
-2.8%
Rating
1.4/10
Exp. rounds
40.5
Line
13.5
Verdict
Risk
Plain model
52%
0 →
Learned
52%
what past results change
learning 0x
learning 0x
Same-line track record · Over 11.5-15.5
All players · Headshots
56.2%365 picks
This player
50%2 picks
Green = above the 57.7% a 2-pick needs. Graded picks only, pushes left out.
raw 62.2% → −8% haircut · cap 68% · per-leg 1.871x · threshold ±2 (pref ±2.5)
- Edge +1.2 below ±2.0 minimum
- EV+ not positive at current payout
- Game script fits: team 14% to win (20%+)
- Blowout loss risk — team only 14% to win. Big underdogs often lose maps 13-3 and the Over dies (e.g. Temny Prince: 9 kills in a 3-13 map 1). Over is penalised and can't be a Take.
Sharp checks · 4/5 active
Big enough sample · 20 recent series (need 8+)
L10 hit rate ≥ 60%off · L10 50.0% at this line
L20 hit rate ≥ 55%off · L20 55.0% at this line
Game script fits · team 14% to win (20%+)
Standard line · Standard payout line
Bo3 series · Maps 1-2 guaranteed
L10 form (4/10 rule) · L10 5/10 at this line · projection 0.2 from his L10 avg
Projection = model only (the replay showed the last-5 blend didn't help)
Evidence & risk
Last 10 series Maps 1-2: avg 14.9 headshots vs line 14.5 (5/10 over). KPR 0.71, HS 54%. Next: vs Vitality, LAN.
Strongest: L10 average 14.9 against a 14.5 line
- Map veto not confirmed — Maps 1-2 estimated from recent map frequency
The read
Signal
MIXED
The call
PASS
Value
NO VALUE
- • Model 14.66 vs line 13.5 → +1.16 (8.6%)
- • Form L5 20% · L10 50% over this line
- • Underdog (≤40%) → −1.0 rounds/map (learned from 28 real matches) · kill rate −4% KPR
- • Expected 40.5 rounds · 2-0 65.4% · OT 12.2%
Performance (last 40 maps)
Kills/Map
14.9
HS/Map
8
K/D
1.09
KPR
0.71
ADR
79.9
KAST
79.5%
HS%
53.7%
Multi-kill
16%
Kills projection
Map 1 (Nuke)7.1 · KPR 0.69 · 19.4r
Map 2 (Mirage)7.5 · KPR 0.669 · 21.1r
Required KPR to clear0.621
Base kills (Maps 1-2)27.5
Sweep / blowout / OT adj.-0.72%
Final projected kills27.3
× realistic HS% (53.7%)14.66
Team Vitality gives up (100 series)-6.3% vs norm
Likely HS totals · Maps 1-2
Bars in colour cash the Over 13.5. Model: 62.2% before the safety haircut.
Lopsided maps32.9%
~12 HS · 34r35.4%
Normal44.6%
~15 HS · 42r65.8%
Close maps10.3%
~16 HS · 43r69.3%
Overtime12.2%
~18 HS · 49r84.4%
Match context
Oct 24, 8:00 AM CTLANPGL Masters Bucharest 2026
Win chance source: Polymarket 14.5%
Underdog (≤40%) → −1.0 rounds/map (learned from 28 real matches) · kill rate −4% KPR
⚠ Blowout riskBlowout loss risk — team only 14% to win. Big underdogs often lose maps 13-3 and the Over dies (e.g. Temny Prince: 9 kills in a 3-13 map 1). Over is penalised and can't be a Take.
M1 Nuke
19.4r
M2 Mirage
21.1r
-3% KPR here
Total
40.5r
2-0 sweep65.4%
Long Map 2 (24+ rounds)22.5%
Overtime12.2%
Blowout (13-5 or worse)32.9%
2-0 sweep is info only — Maps 1-2 are played either way.
Likely maps from his team's recent map frequency: Nuke / Mirage
Recent Maps 1-2 form
10 series · line 13.5 (Over) · avg 14.9 · hit 5/10 · tap a bar
13.5
Nearby lines
| 11.5 Over | 64% | |
| 12.5 Over | 61.6% | |
| 13.5 Over | 52% | OFFERED |
| 14.5 Over | 45.7% | below BE |
| 15.5 Over | 39.3% | below BE |
Break-even per leg: 53.5%
Becomes a PASS at: 13.5
Line movement
first 14.5→13.5-1
- Back on board14.5 → 13.5Oct 23, 08:06 AM
- Pulled14.5Oct 23, 08:04 AM
- First seen14.5Oct 23, 07:41 AM
Map stats
Nuke
12 maps
Kills
14.4
KPR
0.71
HS%
58.4%
K/D
1.12
Mirage
9 maps
Kills
15.3
KPR
0.69
HS%
50%
K/D
1.09
Dust2
7 maps
Kills
13
KPR
0.61
HS%
59.3%
K/D
0.97
Inferno
6 maps
Kills
16.5
KPR
0.73
HS%
48.5%
K/D
1.22
Cache
4 maps
Kills
14
KPR
0.74
HS%
39.3%
K/D
1.1
Ancient
2 maps
Kills
19.5
KPR
0.68
HS%
66.7%
K/D
1.05
Recent Maps 1-2 results
| Date | Opp | Map 1 | Map 2 | Total | Team | Prop | Flags |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-10-16 | Aurora | 2 Cache 11-13 | 8 Inferno 4-13 | 10 | L | Under ✗ | BO |
| 2026-10-15 | Falcons | 9 Nuke 9-13 | 4 Mirage 13-8 | 13 | Split | Under ✗ | |
| 2026-10-14 | Aurora | 8 Inferno 13-11 | 5 Nuke 13-1 | 13 | W | Under ✗ | BO |
| 2026-10-07 | FURIA | 7 Nuke 7-13 | 2 Inferno 3-13 | 9 | L | Under ✗ | BO |
| 2026-10-06 | BetBoom | 8 Dust2 13-8 | 9 Mirage 13-9 | 17 | W | Over ✓ | |
| 2026-10-05 | Natus Vincere | 8 Nuke 6-13 | 5 Cache 6-13 | 13 | L | Under ✗ | |
| 2026-10-04 | TYLOO | 8 Nuke 13-10 | 8 Mirage 13-2 | 16 | W | Over ✓ | BO |
| 2026-10-03 | Aurora | 8 Dust2 3-13 | 10 Mirage 11-13 | 18 | L | Over ✓ | BO |
| 2026-09-10 | G2 | 8 Dust2 13-11 | 11 Ancient 8-13 | 19 | Split | Over ✓ | |
| 2026-09-09 | MIBR | 12 Mirage 6-13 | 9 Nuke 7-13 | 21 | L | Over ✓ | |
| 2026-09-08 | 5star | 10 Cache 13-3 | 14 Nuke 13-4 | 24 | W | Over ✓ | BO |
| 2026-08-29 | Vitality | 6 Dust2 2-13 | 6 Nuke 6-13 | 12 | L | Under ✗ | BO |
| 2026-08-27 | MOUZ | 5 Cache 4-13 | 8 Nuke 7-13 | 13 | L | Under ✗ | BO |
| 2026-08-16 | magic | 15 Ancient 17-19 | 8 Dust2 13-10 | 23 | Split | Over ✓ | OT |
| 2026-08-15 | FURIA | 4 Dust2 6-13 | 8 Mirage 16-13 | 12 | Split | Under ✗ | OT |
| 2026-07-12 | PARIVISION | 8 Mirage 13-9 | 8 Inferno 13-10 | 16 | W | Over ✓ | |
| 2026-07-11 | Alliance | 11 Nuke 13-10 | 19 Inferno 17-19 | 30 | Split | Over ✓ | OT |
| 2026-07-09 | TYLOO | 8 Nuke 13-9 | 3 Mirage 7-13 | 11 | Split | Under ✗ | |
| 2026-07-05 | MIBR | 8 Nuke 13-10 | 7 Mirage 16-13 | 15 | W | Over ✓ | OT |
| 2026-07-04 | Alliance | 12 Dust2 14-16 | 3 Inferno 7-13 | 15 | L | Over ✓ | OT |
