KillsRisk
Line
25.5
Pick
UNDER
Projection
25.4
Hit
37.8%
EV+
-34.6%
Edge
-0.1
L10
40%
HeadshotsBetter playRisk
Line
14.5
Pick
UNDER
Projection
13.51
Hit
48.6%
EV+
-15.8%
Edge
-1.0
L10
50%
Rifler · IGL
MisteM
Eternal Fire vs JiJieHao
RISK · UNDER 14.5
≈ L5 14.0 · L20 13.7Risk · Recent form (L5/L10) leans the other way +1LAN UNDER · 42% hit
Hit rates at 14.5 (Under)
L5
60%
3/5
L10
50%
5/10
L20
65%
11/17
H2H
50%
1/2
Volatility
Low
±4.1
Previous meeting · vs JiJieHao
1/2 hit · avg 16 headshots on Maps 1-2
2026-10-03 · Journey Autumn 2026
Dust2 19-15 · Mirage 11-13 · Split
25
Over 14.5 ✗
2026-09-24 · Stake Pulse Beat II
Anubis 10-13 · Mirage 2-13 · L
7
Under 14.5 ✓
LAN vs online form
LAN · this match
13.6
10/14 hit at 14.5
Online
14.3
1/3 hit at 14.5
Avg headshots on Maps 1-2. The learned hit % now leans toward his form in this setting.
Late checks & sources
- Map veto (currently estimated)
- Confirm MisteM is in the starting five
- Re-check line: PASS at 14.5
bo3.gg per-map player statsbo3.gg match scheduleWin chance: Polymarket 55.5%
Unverified / missing: Maps 1-2 not confirmed
prizepicks · Headshots · Maps 1-2Risk
What to watch · Stays under with 14 HS or fewer (under ~28 kills at 53.2% HS): below 0.591 KPR over ~46 rounds. Main danger: overtime (21.8%) or long close maps add rounds.
Side
Under
Projection
13.51
Raw edge
-1.0
Cons. hit
48.6%
EV+
-15.8%
Rating
1/10
Exp. rounds
46.1
Line
14.5
Verdict
Risk
Plain model
48.6%
0 →
Learned
48.6%
what past results change
learning 0x
learning 0x
Same-line track record · Under 12.5-16.5
All players · Headshots
40.8%414 picks
This player
66.7%3 picks
Green = above the 57.7% a 2-pick needs. Graded picks only, pushes left out.
raw 59.5% → −8% haircut · cap 68% · per-leg 1.732x · threshold ±2 (pref ±2.5)
- Edge -1.0 below ±2.0 minimum
- Recent form (L5/L10) does not lean the same way
- EV+ not positive at current payout
- Game script fits: OT 22% (under 22%) · team 56% to win (not a 55-64% favourite)
- Under risk — team 56% to win; favourites win more rounds and their players usually get more kills.
Sharp checks · 4/5 active
Big enough sample · 17 recent series (need 8+)
L10 hit rate ≥ 60%off · L10 50.0% at this line
L20 hit rate ≥ 55%off · L20 64.7% at this line
Game script fits · OT 22% (under 22%) · team 56% to win (not a 55-64% favourite)
Standard line · Standard payout line
Bo3 series · Maps 1-2 guaranteed
L10 form (4/10 rule) · L10 5/10 at this line · projection 1.5 from his L10 avg
Projection = model only (the replay showed the last-5 blend didn't help)
Evidence & risk
Last 10 series Maps 1-2: avg 15.0 headshots vs line 14.5 (5/10 over). KPR 0.59, HS 53%. Next: vs JiJieHao, LAN.
Strongest: L10 average 15.0 against a 14.5 line
Biggest risk: Map veto not confirmed — Maps 1-2 estimated from recent map frequency
- Map veto not confirmed — Maps 1-2 estimated from recent map frequency
The read
Signal
MIXED
The call
PASS
Value
NO VALUE
- • Model 13.51 vs line 14.5 → -0.99 (-6.8%)
- • Form L5 60% · L10 50% under this line
- • Close match (45–65%) → +1.0 rounds/map (learned from 24 real matches) · kill rate −3% KPR
- • Expected 46.1 rounds · 2-0 52.1% · OT 21.8%
Performance (last 34 maps)
Kills/Map
12.88
HS/Map
6.85
K/D
0.84
KPR
0.59
ADR
69.2
KAST
72.4%
HS%
53.2%
Multi-kill
13.2%
Kills projection
Map 1 (Cache)6.9 · KPR 0.549 · 23.3r
Map 2 (Mirage)6.6 · KPR 0.542 · 22.8r
Required KPR to clear0.591
Base kills (Maps 1-2)25.14
Sweep / blowout / OT adj.+1.00%
Final projected kills25.4
× realistic HS% (53.2%)13.51
JiJieHao gives up (55 series)+3.5% vs norm
Likely HS totals · Maps 1-2
Bars in colour cash the Under 14.5. Model: 59.5% before the safety haircut.
Lopsided maps19.6%
~11 HS · 39r82.3%
Normal30.9%
~12 HS · 42r75.4%
Close maps27.7%
~14 HS · 49r52.5%
Overtime21.8%
~16 HS · 55r35.4%
Match context
Oct 23, 8:00 AM CTLANDraculaN Season 7
Win chance source: Polymarket 55.5%
Close match (45–65%) → +1.0 rounds/map (learned from 24 real matches) · kill rate −3% KPR
Heads upUnder risk — team 56% to win; favourites win more rounds and their players usually get more kills.
M1 Cache
23.3r
-5% KPR here
M2 Mirage
22.8r
-6% KPR here
Total
46.1r
2-0 sweep52.1%
Long Map 2 (24+ rounds)49.5%
Overtime21.8%
Blowout (13-5 or worse)19.6%
2-0 sweep is info only — Maps 1-2 are played either way.
Likely maps from his team's recent map frequency: Cache / Mirage
Recent Maps 1-2 form
10 series · line 14.5 (Under) · avg 15.0 · hit 5/10 · tap a bar
14.5
Nearby lines
| 12.5 Under | 35.4% | below BE |
| 13.5 Under | 41% | below BE |
| 14.5 Under | 48.6% | OFFERED |
| 15.5 Under | 53.9% | below BE |
| 16.5 Under | 60.9% |
Break-even per leg: 57.7%
Becomes a PASS at: 14.5
Line movement
first 14.5→offno change
- Pulled14.5Oct 23, 08:42 AM
- Back on board14.5 → 14.5Oct 23, 08:14 AM
- Pulled14.5Oct 23, 08:02 AM
- First seen14.5Oct 22, 07:00 PM
Map stats
Cache
10 maps
Kills
12.5
KPR
0.56
HS%
49.6%
K/D
0.86
Mirage
8 maps
Kills
11.9
KPR
0.54
HS%
57.9%
K/D
0.75
Dust2
8 maps
Kills
15.6
KPR
0.65
HS%
52%
K/D
1.05
Anubis
5 maps
Kills
11.6
KPR
0.44
HS%
55.2%
K/D
0.67
Inferno
2 maps
Kills
9.5
KPR
0.44
HS%
57.9%
K/D
0.66
Ancient
1 maps
Kills
16
KPR
0.73
HS%
50%
K/D
1.14
Recent Maps 1-2 results
| Date | Opp | Map 1 | Map 2 | Total | Team | Prop | Flags |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-10-22 | SINNERS | 9 Mirage 13-10 | 8 Cache 14-16 | 17 | Split | Over ✗ | OT |
| 2026-10-21 | BC.Game | 3 Mirage 6-13 | 8 Ancient 13-9 | 11 | Split | Under ✓ | |
| 2026-10-21 | BASEMENT BOYS | 8 Mirage 8-13 | 6 Cache 13-7 | 14 | Split | Under ✓ | |
| 2026-10-20 | INFINITE | 6 Cache 13-1 | 11 Dust2 22-20 | 17 | W | Over ✗ | OTBO |
| 2026-10-03 | Ninjas in Pyjamas | 4 Dust2 4-13 | 7 Inferno 11-13 | 11 | L | Under ✓ | BO |
| 2026-10-03 | JiJieHao | 16 Dust2 19-15 | 9 Mirage 11-13 | 25 | Split | Over ✗ | OT |
| 2026-10-03 | Sangal | 7 Dust2 13-5 | 5 Cache 13-11 | 12 | W | Under ✓ | BO |
| 2026-10-02 | BASEMENT BOYS | 8 Mirage 12-16 | 8 Cache 13-7 | 16 | Split | Over ✗ | OT |
| 2026-09-27 | K27 | 6 Dust2 13-8 | 10 Mirage 13-8 | 16 | W | Over ✗ | |
| 2026-09-26 | Nuclear TigeRES | 5 Anubis 7-13 | 6 Dust2 13-8 | 11 | Split | Under ✓ | |
| 2026-09-25 | WBT | 5 Cache 13-6 | 11 Anubis 19-17 | 16 | W | Over ✗ | OT |
| 2026-09-24 | Betclic | 3 Cache 4-13 | 10 Anubis 16-13 | 13 | Split | Under ✓ | OTBO |
| 2026-09-24 | ASTRAL | 4 Inferno 13-6 | 10 Dust2 13-10 | 14 | W | Under ✓ | |
| 2026-09-24 | JiJieHao | 4 Anubis 10-13 | 3 Mirage 2-13 | 7 | L | Under ✓ | BO |
| 2026-09-20 | WBT | 2 Anubis 13-11 | 7 Cache 16-14 | 9 | W | Under ✓ | OT |
| 2026-09-20 | GenOne | 5 Cache 13-9 | 5 Dust2 13-2 | 10 | W | Under ✓ | BO |
| 2026-09-19 | NT | 5 Mirage 13-11 | 9 Cache 16-13 | 14 | W | Under ✓ | OT |
