KillsRisk
Line
31
Pick
OVER
Projection
31.62
Hit
51.9%
EV+
-10.0%
Edge
+0.6
L10
50%
HeadshotsBetter playPlayable
Line
11
Pick
OVER
Projection
13.12
Hit
59.5%
EV+
+3.0%
Edge
+2.1
L10
40%
AWPer
Gratisfaction
Off Chops vs NEXVOID
PLAYABLE · OVER 11
PP11
≈ L5 12.4 · L20 12.6
Hit rates at 11 (Over)
L5
40%
2/5
L10
40%
4/10
L20
50%
10/20
H2H
100%
2/2
Volatility
Low
±4.09
Previous meeting · vs NEXVOID
2/2 hit · avg 17.5 headshots on Maps 1-2
2026-10-18 · Logitech G Pro Series 2026
Dust2 17-19 · Inferno 9-13 · L
18
Over 11 ✓
2026-08-26 · ESL Challenger League Season 52: Asia - Cup 1
Dust2 13-7 · Inferno 5-13 · Split
17
Over 11 ✓
LAN vs online form
LAN · this match
12
3/7 hit at 11
Online
12.8
7/13 hit at 11
Avg headshots on Maps 1-2. The learned hit % now leans toward his form in this setting.
Late checks & sources
- Map veto (currently estimated)
- Confirm Gratisfaction is in the starting five
- Re-check line: PASS at 11.5
bo3.gg per-map player statsbo3.gg match schedule
Unverified / missing: Maps 1-2 not confirmed
prizepicks · Headshots · Maps 1-2Playable
What to watch · Needs 12+ HS (~29 kills at 41.5% HS): 0.616 KPR over ~43 rounds. Main danger: a fast 2-0 (55%) or blowout (30.1%) cuts rounds.
Side
Over
Projection
13.12
Raw edge
+2.1
Cons. hit
59.5%
EV+
+3.0%
Rating
7.4/10
Exp. rounds
43
Line
11
Verdict
Playable
Plain model
59.5%
0 →
Learned
59.5%
what past results change
learning 0x
learning 0x
Same-line track record · Over 9-13
All players · Headshots
50.8%197 picks
This player
0%1 picks
Green = above the 57.7% a 2-pick needs. Graded picks only, pushes left out.
raw 69.8% → −8% haircut · cap 68% · per-leg 1.732x · threshold ±2 (pref ±2.5)
Clears edge, form, EV+, volatility and every sharp check
Sharp checks · 5/5 active
L10 only 40% at this line (under 50%)
Big enough sample · 20 recent series (need 8+)
L10 hit rate ≥ 60%off · L10 40.0% at this line
L20 hit rate ≥ 55%off · L20 50.0% at this line
Game script fits · 43.0 exp. rounds (need 38+) · blowout 30% (under 40%)
Standard line · Standard payout line
Bo3 series · Maps 1-2 guaranteed
L10 form (4/10 rule) · L10 4/10 at this line · projection 1.0 from his L10 avg
Projection = model only (the replay showed the last-5 blend didn't help)
Evidence & risk
Last 10 series Maps 1-2: avg 12.1 headshots vs line 11.0 (4/10 over). KPR 0.76, HS 41%. Next: vs NEXVOID, LAN.
Strongest: L10 average 12.1 against a 11.0 line
Biggest risk: 31% of recent maps were blowouts (13-5 or worse)
- 31% of recent maps were blowouts (13-5 or worse)
- Map veto not confirmed — Maps 1-2 estimated from recent map frequency
The read
Signal
ALIGNED
The call
TAKE OVER
Value
THIN
- • Model 13.12 vs line 11 → +2.12 (19.3%)
- • Form L5 40% · L10 40% over this line
- • Win chance unknown — no favourite adjustment
- • Expected 43 rounds · 2-0 55% · OT 5.6%
Performance (last 40 maps)
Kills/Map
15.12
HS/Map
6.28
K/D
1.18
KPR
0.77
ADR
77.3
KAST
72.3%
HS%
41.5%
Multi-kill
19.5%
Kills projection
Map 1 (Dust2)7 · KPR 0.76 · 22.6r
Map 2 (Inferno)6.1 · KPR 0.729 · 20.4r
Required KPR to clear0.616
Base kills (Maps 1-2)32.05
Sweep / blowout / OT adj.-1.33%
Final projected kills31.62
× realistic HS% (41.5%)13.12
NEXVOID gives up (24 series)0% vs norm
Likely HS totals · Maps 1-2
Bars in colour cash the Over 11. Model: 69.8% before the safety haircut.
Lopsided maps30.1%
~11 HS · 36r42.3%
Normal47.4%
~14 HS · 45r71%
Close maps16.9%
~14 HS · 46r73%
Overtime5.6%
~16 HS · 52r85.3%
Match context
Oct 27, 10:00 PM CTLANDFRAG Invitational 2026
Win chance source: —
Win chance unknown — no favourite adjustment
M1 Dust2
22.6r
-1% KPR here
M2 Inferno
20.4r
-5% KPR here
Total
43r
2-0 sweep55%
Long Map 2 (24+ rounds)22.5%
Overtime5.6%
Blowout (13-5 or worse)30.1%
2-0 sweep is info only — Maps 1-2 are played either way. Sweep from win chance + his team's 2-0 rate + opponent's 2-0 rate + 2 past meetings. Rounds & blowout from 40 his-team maps + 30 opponent maps + 4 past-meeting maps.
Likely maps from his team's recent map frequency: Dust2 / Inferno
Recent Maps 1-2 form
10 series · line 11 (Over) · avg 12.1 · hit 4/10 · tap a bar
11
Nearby lines
| 9 Over | 65.9% | |
| 10 Over | 63.4% | |
| 11 Over | 59.5% | OFFERED |
| 12 Over | 55% | below BE |
| 13 Over | 49.4% | below BE |
Break-even per leg: 57.7%
Becomes a PASS at: 11.5
Line movement
first 11→11no change
- First seen11Oct 26, 09:41 PM
Map stats
Dust2
14 maps
Kills
16.6
KPR
0.76
HS%
42.9%
K/D
1.21
Inferno
12 maps
Kills
14.8
KPR
0.72
HS%
42.1%
K/D
1.16
Ancient
5 maps
Kills
10.4
KPR
0.6
HS%
46.2%
K/D
0.81
Nuke
3 maps
Kills
16.3
KPR
0.84
HS%
26.5%
K/D
1.48
Anubis
3 maps
Kills
16
KPR
0.77
HS%
29.2%
K/D
1.3
Cache
2 maps
Kills
14.5
KPR
0.78
HS%
44.8%
K/D
1.32
Mirage
1 maps
Kills
16
KPR
0.76
HS%
75%
K/D
1.6
Recent Maps 1-2 results
| Date | Opp | Map 1 | Map 2 | Total | Team | Prop | Flags |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-10-26 | Alter Ego | 12 Inferno 11-13 | 3 Ancient 3-13 | 15 | L | Over ✓ | BO |
| 2026-10-26 | Ground Zero | 2 Dust2 13-8 | 8 Anubis 13-7 | 10 | W | Under ✗ | |
| 2026-10-18 | NEXVOID | 13 Dust2 17-19 | 5 Inferno 9-13 | 18 | L | Over ✓ | OT |
| 2026-10-17 | Rooster | 2 Nuke 13-7 | 7 Cache 13-2 | 9 | W | Under ✗ | BO |
| 2026-10-16 | Abyssal | 5 Dust2 13-7 | 5 Inferno 13-3 | 10 | W | Under ✗ | BO |
| 2026-10-16 | Ground Zero | 5 Dust2 13-6 | 1 Anubis 11-13 | 6 | Split | Under ✗ | |
| 2026-10-16 | FlyQuest | 7 Dust2 10-13 | 9 Inferno 16-19 | 16 | L | Over ✓ | OT |
| 2026-09-29 | FlyQuest | 3 Inferno 4-13 | 5 Dust2 9-13 | 8 | L | Under ✗ | BO |
| 2026-09-28 | THUNDER dOWNUNDER | 6 Inferno 13-8 | 12 Dust2 13-9 | 18 | W | Over ✓ | |
| 2026-09-27 | FlyQuest | 6 Inferno 2-13 | 5 Ancient 4-13 | 11 | L | Under ✗ | BO |
| 2026-09-25 | THUNDER dOWNUNDER | 5 Ancient 13-4 | 5 Dust2 13-3 | 10 | W | Under ✗ | BO |
| 2026-09-23 | THUNDER dOWNUNDER | 8 Nuke 13-7 | 9 Inferno 13-7 | 17 | W | Over ✓ | |
| 2026-09-01 | THUNDER dOWNUNDER | 3 Dust2 13-8 | 9 Inferno 13-1 | 12 | W | Over ✓ | BO |
| 2026-08-30 | Alter Ego | 6 Cache 13-9 | 7 Dust2 11-13 | 13 | Split | Over ✓ | |
| 2026-08-30 | THUNDER dOWNUNDER | 3 Nuke 13-5 | 3 Inferno 11-13 | 6 | Split | Under ✗ | BO |
| 2026-08-29 | The Huns | 6 Dust2 11-13 | 6 Ancient 13-7 | 12 | Split | Over ✓ | |
| 2026-08-28 | Nas | 12 Mirage 13-8 | 12 Dust2 13-3 | 24 | W | Over ✓ | BO |
| 2026-08-28 | THUNDER dOWNUNDER | 4 Inferno 13-8 | 5 Anubis 13-5 | 9 | W | Under ✗ | BO |
| 2026-08-27 | Alter Ego | 5 Dust2 10-13 | 5 Ancient 13-4 | 10 | Split | Under ✗ | BO |
| 2026-08-26 | NEXVOID | 13 Dust2 13-7 | 4 Inferno 5-13 | 17 | Split | Over ✓ | BO |
