CS2 LAB
V1.0
KillsRisk
Line
26
Pick
UNDER
Projection
25.64
Hit
50%
EV+
-13.4%
Edge
-0.4
L10
50%
HeadshotsBetter playRisk
Line
12.5
Pick
UNDER
Projection
11.52
Hit
59.2%
EV+
+2.5%
Edge
-1.0
L10
60%
bLitz
Rifler · IGL
bLitz
The MongolZ vs MOUZ
59%HIT CHANCE
RISK · UNDER 12.5
BEST UNDER · PP 12.5PP12.5UD11.5
▼ L5 10.6 · L20 12.9Risk · Edge -1.0 far below ±2.0
Hit rates at 12.5 (Under)
L5
80%
4/5
L10
60%
6/10
L20
50%
10/20
H2H
N/A
Volatility
Low
±2.95
Previous meeting · vs MOUZ
No meeting with MOUZ in his last 20 series.
LAN vs online form
LAN · this match
12.9
9/18 hit at 12.5
Online
12.5
1/2 hit at 12.5
Avg headshots on Maps 1-2. The learned hit % now leans toward his form in this setting.
Late checks & sources
  • Map veto (currently estimated)
  • Confirm bLitz is in the starting five
  • Re-check line: PASS at 12.5
bo3.gg per-map player statsbo3.gg match scheduleWin chance: Polymarket 24.5%
Unverified / missing: Maps 1-2 not confirmed
prizepicks · Headshots · Maps 1-2Risk
What to watch · Stays under with 12 HS or fewer (under ~28 kills at 47.1% HS): below 0.667 KPR over ~40 rounds. Main danger: overtime (10%) or long close maps add rounds.
Side
Under
Projection
11.52
Raw edge
-1.0
Cons. hit
59.2%
EV+
+2.5%
Rating
5.5/10
Exp. rounds
39.8
Line
12.5
Verdict
Risk
Plain model
59.2%
0 →
Learned
59.2%
learning 0x
Same-line track record · Under 10.5-14.5
All players · Headshots
44.5%247 picks
This player
100%4 picks
Green = above the 57.7% a 2-pick needs. Graded picks only, pushes left out.
raw 62.9% → −8% haircut · cap 74% · per-leg 1.732x · threshold ±2 (pref ±2.5)
  • Edge -1.0 below ±2.0 minimum
Sharp checks · 6/6
Big enough sample · 20 recent series (need 8+)
L10 hit rate ≥ 60% · L10 60.0% at this line · gate off (replay: didn't help)
L20 hit rate ≥ 55% · L20 50.0% at this line · gate off (replay: didn't help)
Game script fits · OT 10% (under 22%) · 39.8 exp. rounds (under 47) · team 25% to win (not a 55-64% favourite)
Standard line · Standard payout line
Bo3 series · Maps 1-2 guaranteed
Projection = model only (the replay showed the last-5 blend didn't help)
Evidence & risk

Last 10 series Maps 1-2: avg 11.9 headshots vs line 12.5 (4/10 over). KPR 0.66, HS 47%. Next: vs MOUZ, LAN.

Strongest: L10 average 11.9 against a 12.5 line

Biggest risk: 27% of recent maps were blowouts (13-5 or worse)

  • 27% of recent maps were blowouts (13-5 or worse)
  • Map veto not confirmed — Maps 1-2 estimated from recent map frequency
The read
Signal
ALIGNED
The call
PASS
Value
THIN
  • • Model 11.52 vs line 12.5 → -0.98 (-7.8%)
  • • Form L5 80% · L10 60% under this line
  • • Underdog (≤40%) → −1.0 rounds/map (learned from 15 real matches) · kill rate −6% KPR
  • • Expected 39.8 rounds · 2-0 55.5% · OT 10%
Performance (last 40 maps)
Kills/Map
13.7
HS/Map
6.45
K/D
0.97
KPR
0.66
ADR
78.4
KAST
74.1%
HS%
47.1%
Multi-kill
15.4%
Kills projection
Map 1 (Inferno)5.1 · KPR 0.561 · 19.7r
Map 2 (Nuke)6 · KPR 0.643 · 20.1r
Required KPR to clear0.667
Base kills (Maps 1-2)23.98
Sweep / blowout / OT adj.-1.34%
Final projected kills23.66
× realistic HS% (47.1%)11.52
MOUZ gives up (78 series)-5.3% vs norm
Likely HS totals · Maps 1-2
Bars in colour cash the Under 12.5. Model: 62.9% before the safety haircut.
3456789101112131415161718192021222324line 12.5
Lopsided maps34.3%
~10 HS · 33r81.6%
Normal43.2%
~12 HS · 42r55.8%
Close maps12.5%
~12 HS · 43r53.9%
Overtime10%
~14 HS · 49r35.7%
Match context
Oct 26, 08:00 AMLANPGL Masters Bucharest 2026
HLTV #20VRS #18HLTV #4VRS #2
The MongolZ 25%75% MOUZ
Win chance source: Polymarket 24.5% · live
Underdog (≤40%) → −1.0 rounds/map (learned from 15 real matches) · kill rate −6% KPR
Game scriptUnderdog — team 25% to win; fewer rounds won usually means fewer kills.
M1 Inferno
19.7r
-9% KPR here
M2 Nuke
20.1r
+4% KPR here
Total
39.8r
2-0 sweep55.5%
Long Map 2 (24+ rounds)22.5%
Overtime10%
Blowout (13-5 or worse)34.3%

2-0 sweep is info only — Maps 1-2 are played either way. Sweep from win chance + his team's 2-0 rate + opponent's 2-0 rate + market. Rounds & blowout from 40 his-team maps + 30 opponent maps + 0 past-meeting maps.

Likely maps from his team's recent map frequency: Inferno / Nuke

Recent Maps 1-2 form
10 series · line 12.5 (Under) · avg 11.9 · hit 6/10 · tap a bar
12.5
Nearby lines
10.5 Under43.8%below BE
11.5 Under52%below BE
12.5 Under59.2%OFFERED
13.5 Under64.3%
14.5 Under67.5%
Break-even per leg: 57.7%
Becomes a PASS at: 12.5
Line movement
first 12.5→12.5no change
  1. First seen12.5
    Oct 26, 03:14 AM
Map stats
Inferno
12 maps
Kills
11.8
KPR
0.58
HS%
48.2%
K/D
0.9
Nuke
7 maps
Kills
15
KPR
0.7
HS%
51.4%
K/D
0.98
Mirage
6 maps
Kills
15.7
KPR
0.71
HS%
44.7%
K/D
1.06
Ancient
6 maps
Kills
15.8
KPR
0.73
HS%
37.9%
K/D
1.1
Cache
4 maps
Kills
10.5
KPR
0.56
HS%
50%
K/D
0.75
Dust2
3 maps
Kills
14.3
KPR
0.65
HS%
53.5%
K/D
0.98
Overpass
2 maps
Kills
14
KPR
0.76
HS%
50%
K/D
1.04
Recent Maps 1-2 results
DateOppMap 1Map 2TotalTeamPropFlags
2026-10-25Vitality5 Inferno 6-135 Cache 3-1310LUnder ✓BO
2026-10-24Aurora5 Inferno 12-163 Nuke 13-28SplitUnder ✓OTBO
2026-10-22PARIVISION6 Ancient 13-67 Mirage 13-1113WOver ✗
2026-10-22BIG7 Cache 4-135 Inferno 13-312SplitUnder ✓BO
2026-10-21PRIVATE5 Mirage 13-65 Ancient 13-710WUnder ✓
2026-10-21magic6 Inferno 13-95 Ancient 13-1011WUnder ✓
2026-10-20BIG3 Cache 8-135 Mirage 4-138LUnder ✓BO
2026-10-19Alliance10 Inferno 13-87 Dust2 13-1117WOver ✗
2026-09-095star4 Inferno 9-1310 Nuke 11-1314LOver ✗
2026-09-08MIBR4 Ancient 13-512 Mirage 10-1316SplitOver ✗BO
2026-08-20Falcons4 Inferno 3-138 Dust2 9-1312LUnder ✓BO
2026-08-16paiN11 Nuke 13-107 Inferno 13-418WOver ✗BO
2026-08-15Natus Vincere5 Inferno 5-137 Ancient 13-912SplitUnder ✓BO
2026-07-31FaZe6 Nuke 12-168 Mirage 13-714SplitOver ✗OT
2026-07-26Wildcard8 Dust2 13-74 Inferno 13-912WUnder ✓
2026-07-24HEROIC7 Nuke 5-136 Cache 13-813SplitOver ✗BO
2026-06-159z6 Inferno 8-136 Overpass 8-1312LUnder ✓
2026-06-14Monte8 Nuke 9-137 Inferno 13-715SplitOver ✗
2026-06-13Natus Vincere9 Nuke 13-89 Ancient 13-1618SplitOver ✗OT
2026-06-12B85 Mirage 16-148 Overpass 13-313WOver ✗OTBO
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