CS2 LAB
V1.0
KillsBetter playRisk
Line
26.5
Pick
OVER
Projection
28.36
Hit
58.7%
EV+
+1.7%
Edge
+1.9
L10
50%
HeadshotsRisk
Line
14
Pick
OVER
Projection
15.2
Hit
53.2%
EV+
-7.9%
Edge
+1.2
L10
20%
damyo
Rifler
damyo
Off Chops vs NEXVOID
53%HIT CHANCE
RISK · OVER 14
PP14
▼ L5 13.8 · L20 15.3Risk · Recent form (L5/L10) leans the other way +1L10 4/10 BLOCK
Hit rates at 14 (Over)
L5
20%
1/5
L10
20%
2/10
L20
40%
8/20
H2H
0%
0/1
Volatility
Low
±3.29
Previous meeting · vs NEXVOID
0/1 hit · avg 14 headshots on Maps 1-2
2026-10-18 · Logitech G Pro Series 2026
Dust2 17-19 · Inferno 9-13 · L
14
Under 14 ✗
LAN vs online form
LAN · this match
14.1
2/7 hit at 14
Online
15.9
6/13 hit at 14
Avg headshots on Maps 1-2. The learned hit % now leans toward his form in this setting.
Late checks & sources
  • Map veto (currently estimated)
  • Confirm damyo is in the starting five
  • Re-check line: PASS at 14
bo3.gg per-map player statsbo3.gg match schedule
Unverified / missing: Maps 1-2 not confirmed
prizepicks · Headshots · Maps 1-2Risk
What to watch · Needs 15+ HS (~28 kills at 53.6% HS): 0.616 KPR over ~42 rounds. His Kills line is 26.5: backing Kills Over needs ~1 fewer kill, usually the easier play. Main danger: a fast 2-0 (55.2%) or blowout (27.8%) cuts rounds.
Side
Over
Projection
15.2
Raw edge
+1.2
Cons. hit
53.2%
EV+
-7.9%
Rating
2.4/10
Exp. rounds
42.4
Line
14
Verdict
Risk
Plain model
53.2%
0 →
Learned
53.2%
learning 0x
Same-line track record · Over 12-16
All players · Headshots
57.6%354 picks
This player
0%1 picks
Green = above the 57.7% a 2-pick needs. Graded picks only, pushes left out.
raw 64.2% → −8% haircut · cap 68% · per-leg 1.732x · threshold ±2 (pref ±2.5)
  • Edge +1.2 below ±2.0 minimum
  • Recent form (L5/L10) does not lean the same way
  • EV+ not positive at current payout
  • L10 form (4/10 rule): L10 2/10 at this line · projection 2.2 from his L10 avg · blocked
Sharp checks · 4/5 active
L10 only 20% at this line (under 50%)
Big enough sample · 20 recent series (need 8+)
L10 hit rate ≥ 60%off · L10 20.0% at this line
L20 hit rate ≥ 55%off · L20 40.0% at this line
Game script fits · 42.4 exp. rounds (need 38+) · blowout 28% (under 40%)
Standard line · Standard payout line
Bo3 series · Maps 1-2 guaranteed
L10 form (4/10 rule) · L10 2/10 at this line · projection 2.2 from his L10 avg · blocked
Projection = model only (the replay showed the last-5 blend didn't help)
Evidence & risk

Last 10 series Maps 1-2: avg 13.0 headshots vs line 14.0 (2/10 over). KPR 0.60, HS 54%. Next: vs NEXVOID, LAN.

Strongest: L10 average 13.0 against a 14.0 line

Biggest risk: 28% of recent maps were blowouts (13-5 or worse)

  • 28% of recent maps were blowouts (13-5 or worse)
  • Map veto not confirmed — Maps 1-2 estimated from recent map frequency
The read
Signal
MIXED
The call
PASS
Value
NO VALUE
  • • Model 15.2 vs line 14 → +1.2 (8.6%)
  • • Form L5 20% · L10 20% over this line
  • • Win chance unknown — no favourite adjustment
  • • Expected 42.4 rounds · 2-0 55.2% · OT 10%
Performance (last 40 maps)
Kills/Map
14.28
HS/Map
7.65
K/D
1.04
KPR
0.6
ADR
69.2
KAST
73.6%
HS%
53.6%
Multi-kill
14.6%
Kills projection
Map 1 (Inferno)6.7 · KPR 0.621 · 20.4r
Map 2 (Nuke)8.5 · KPR 0.722 · 22r
Required KPR to clear0.616
Base kills (Maps 1-2)28.55
Sweep / blowout / OT adj.-0.69%
Final projected kills28.36
× realistic HS% (53.6%)15.2
NEXVOID gives up (24 series)0% vs norm
Likely HS totals · Maps 1-2
Bars in colour cash the Over 14. Model: 64.2% before the safety haircut.
5678910111213141516171819202122232425262728line 14
Lopsided maps27.8%
~13 HS · 36r30.4%
Normal45.5%
~16 HS · 44r58.9%
Close maps16.7%
~16 HS · 45r65.2%
Overtime10%
~18 HS · 51r81.1%
Match context
Oct 27, 10:00 PM CTLANDFRAG Invitational 2026
HLTV #131VRS #122HLTV #77VRS #72
Off Chops NEXVOID
Win chance source: —
Win chance unknown — no favourite adjustment
M1 Inferno
20.4r
+3% KPR here
M2 Nuke
22r
+20% KPR here
Total
42.4r
2-0 sweep55.2%
Long Map 2 (24+ rounds)26.7%
Overtime10%
Blowout (13-5 or worse)27.8%

2-0 sweep is info only — Maps 1-2 are played either way. Sweep from win chance + his team's 2-0 rate + opponent's 2-0 rate. Rounds & blowout from 40 his-team maps + 30 opponent maps + 2 past-meeting maps.

Likely maps from his team's recent map frequency: Inferno / Nuke

Recent Maps 1-2 form
10 series · line 14 (Over) · avg 13.0 · hit 2/10 · tap a bar
14
Nearby lines
12 Over64.7%
13 Over61.5%
14 Over53.2%OFFERED
15 Over46.1%below BE
16 Over36.9%below BE
Break-even per leg: 57.7%
Becomes a PASS at: 14
Line movement
first 14→14no change
  1. First seen14
    Oct 26, 09:41 PM
Map stats
Nuke
9 maps
Kills
16.8
KPR
0.76
HS%
51.7%
K/D
1.2
Inferno
9 maps
Kills
12.6
KPR
0.63
HS%
52.2%
K/D
1.02
Dust2
7 maps
Kills
14.4
KPR
0.62
HS%
57.4%
K/D
0.8
Anubis
6 maps
Kills
11.3
KPR
0.58
HS%
48.5%
K/D
0.88
Cache
3 maps
Kills
14
KPR
0.88
HS%
57.1%
K/D
1.5
Mirage
3 maps
Kills
20.3
KPR
0.9
HS%
60.7%
K/D
1.42
Overpass
2 maps
Kills
13.5
KPR
0.64
HS%
48.1%
K/D
1.23
Ancient
1 maps
Kills
8
KPR
0.5
HS%
50%
K/D
0.57
Recent Maps 1-2 results
DateOppMap 1Map 2TotalTeamPropFlags
2026-10-26Alter Ego8 Inferno 11-134 Ancient 3-1312LUnder ✗BO
2026-10-26Ground Zero8 Dust2 13-86 Anubis 13-714WUnder ✗
2026-10-18NEXVOID7 Dust2 17-197 Inferno 9-1314LUnder ✗OT
2026-10-17Rooster10 Nuke 13-73 Cache 13-213WUnder ✗BO
2026-10-16Abyssal10 Dust2 13-76 Inferno 13-316WOver ✓BO
2026-10-16Ground Zero3 Dust2 13-67 Anubis 11-1310SplitUnder ✗
2026-10-16FlyQuest13 Dust2 10-137 Inferno 16-1920LOver ✓OT
2026-10-13Fruju4 Inferno 13-38 Cache 13-612WUnder ✗BO
2026-09-27Rooster4 Anubis 13-63 Nuke 11-137SplitUnder ✗
2026-09-25Rooster4 Anubis 8-138 Nuke 3-1312LUnder ✗BO
2026-09-23Mindfreak7 Nuke 13-913 Cache 13-120WOver ✓BO
2026-08-30Arcade7 Nuke 13-76 Inferno 3-1313SplitUnder ✗BO
2026-08-29Rooster11 Dust2 12-1612 Mirage 13-1123SplitOver ✓OT
2026-08-28Rooster6 Anubis 4-1317 Nuke 15-1923LOver ✓OTBO
2026-08-26Rooster5 Inferno 13-26 Anubis 13-411WUnder ✗BO
2026-04-19Rooster6 Overpass 9-137 Nuke 13-513SplitUnder ✗BO
2026-04-19Ding Cuts13 Mirage 13-1016 Nuke 13-1029WOver ✓
2026-04-18Abyssal7 Inferno 13-612 Mirage 13-819WOver ✓
2026-04-18Abyssal7 Overpass 7-133 Nuke 8-1310LUnder ✗
2026-03-26Ground Zero6 Dust2 4-139 Inferno 13-415SplitOver ✓BO
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