KillsBetter playRisk
Line
33.5
Pick
OVER
Projection
34.5
Hit
49.3%
EV+
-7.7%
Edge
+1.0
L10
60%
HeadshotsRisk
Line
17.5
Pick
OVER
Projection
17.67
Hit
45.7%
EV+
-14.6%
Edge
+0.2
L10
50%
Rifler
insani
Made in Brazil vs Inner Circle Esports
RISK · OVER 33.5
SAME LINE ON ALL APPSPP33.5UD33.5
▲ L5 37.4 · L20 35.5
Hit rates at 33.5 (Over)
L5
80%
4/5
L10
60%
6/10
L20
60%
12/20
H2H
N/A
Volatility
Medium
Previous meeting · vs Inner Circle Esports
No meeting with Inner Circle Esports in his last 20 series.
LAN vs online form
LAN · this match
34.6
9/16 hit at 33.5
Online
39.3
3/4 hit at 33.5
Avg kills on Maps 1-2.
Late checks & sources
- Map veto (currently estimated)
- Confirm insani is in the starting five
- Re-check line: PASS at —
bo3.gg per-map player statsbo3.gg match scheduleWin chance: Polymarket 60.5%
Unverified / missing: Maps 1-2 not confirmed
underdog · Kills · Maps 1-2Risk
What to watch · Needs 34+ kills: across ~44 rounds. Main danger: a fast 2-0 (55.7%) or blowout (20.1%) cuts rounds.
Side
Over
Projection
34.5
Raw edge
+1.0
Cons. hit
49.3%
EV+
-7.7%
Exp. rounds
43.9
Line
33.5
Verdict
Risk
Same-line track record · Over 31.5-35.5
All players · Kills
47.4%171 picks
This player
100%1 picks
Green = above the 57.7% a 2-pick needs. Graded picks only, pushes left out.
Evidence & risk
Last 10 series Maps 1-2: avg 35.7 kills vs line 33.5 (6/10 over). Next: vs Inner Circle, LAN.
Strongest: L10 average 35.7 against a 33.5 line
Biggest risk: Map veto not confirmed — Maps 1-2 estimated from recent map frequency
- Map veto not confirmed — Maps 1-2 estimated from recent map frequency
The read
Signal
ALIGNED
The call
PASS
Value
NO VALUE
- • Model 34.5 vs line 33.5 → +1 (3.0%)
- • Form L5 80% · L10 60% over this line
- • Expected 43.9 rounds · 2-0 55.7% · OT 12.2%
Performance (last 40 maps)
Kills/Map
17.75
HS/Map
9.32
K/D
1.18
ADR
92.7
KAST
75.6%
Multi-kill
22.3%
Kills projection
Inner Circle Esports gives up (83 series)-2.8% vs norm
Match context
Oct 28, 1:30 PM CTLANStake Ranked Episode 5
Win chance source: Polymarket 60.5%
M1 Ancient
22.8r
M2 Mirage
21.2r
Total
43.9r
2-0 sweep55.7%
Long Map 2 (24+ rounds)26.7%
Overtime12.2%
Blowout (13-5 or worse)20.1%
2-0 sweep is info only — Maps 1-2 are played either way. Sweep from win chance + his team's 2-0 rate + opponent's 2-0 rate + market. Rounds & blowout from 40 his-team maps + 20 opponent maps + 0 past-meeting maps.
Likely maps from his team's recent map frequency: Ancient / Mirage
Recent Maps 1-2 form
10 series · line 33.5 (Over) · avg 35.7 · hit 6/10 · tap a bar
33.5
Line movement
first 33.5→33.5no change
- First seen33.5Oct 27, 08:04 PM
Map stats
Ancient
9 maps
Kills
18.9
K/D
1.13
Nuke
8 maps
Kills
14.1
K/D
0.91
Mirage
8 maps
Kills
16
K/D
1.22
Inferno
7 maps
Kills
18.1
K/D
1.4
Cache
7 maps
Kills
22.4
K/D
1.3
Anubis
1 maps
Kills
15
K/D
1.36
Recent Maps 1-2 results
| Date | Opp | Map 1 | Map 2 | Total | Team | Prop | Flags |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-10-27 | Eternal Fire | 13 Ancient 10-13 | 24 Mirage 13-10 | 37 | Split | Over ✓ | |
| 2026-10-17 | Ninjas in Pyjamas | 4 Mirage 2-13 | 30 Cache 19-17 | 34 | Split | Over ✓ | OTBO |
| 2026-10-17 | 100 Thieves | 11 Nuke 13-8 | 20 Mirage 13-10 | 31 | W | Under ✗ | |
| 2026-10-16 | Astralis | 15 Inferno 8-13 | 36 Cache 16-14 | 51 | Split | Over ✓ | OT |
| 2026-10-15 | BC.Game | 20 Mirage 13-5 | 14 Ancient 7-13 | 34 | Split | Over ✓ | BO |
| 2026-10-15 | Envy | 15 Anubis 13-7 | 10 Ancient 13-5 | 25 | W | Under ✗ | BO |
| 2026-10-15 | BC.Game | 18 Cache 12-16 | 26 Ancient 13-10 | 44 | Split | Over ✓ | OT |
| 2026-09-19 | FURIA | 7 Mirage 8-13 | 16 Nuke 11-13 | 23 | L | Under ✗ | |
| 2026-09-19 | NRG | 20 Cache 13-7 | 13 Inferno 13-2 | 33 | W | Under ✗ | BO |
| 2026-09-18 | magic | 27 Ancient 13-8 | 18 Mirage 11-13 | 45 | Split | Over ✓ | |
| 2026-09-17 | FURIA | 25 Inferno 13-11 | 10 Nuke 6-13 | 35 | Split | Over ✓ | |
| 2026-09-12 | Legacy | 21 Nuke 10-13 | 13 Ancient 13-11 | 34 | Split | Over ✓ | |
| 2026-09-11 | Alliance | 18 Inferno 13-4 | 15 Cache 13-9 | 33 | W | Under ✗ | BO |
| 2026-09-09 | 9z | 15 Mirage 13-6 | 16 Nuke 13-7 | 31 | W | Under ✗ | |
| 2026-09-08 | The MongolZ | 15 Ancient 5-13 | 20 Mirage 13-10 | 35 | Split | Over ✓ | BO |
| 2026-09-03 | K27 | 15 Cache 6-13 | 9 Nuke 6-13 | 24 | L | Under ✗ | |
| 2026-09-03 | EYEBALLERS | 31 Ancient 16-14 | 17 Inferno 13-8 | 48 | W | Over ✓ | OT |
| 2026-09-02 | 3DMAX | 23 Cache 13-8 | 17 Nuke 13-6 | 40 | W | Over ✓ | |
| 2026-09-02 | Eternal Fire | 21 Ancient 16-19 | 24 Inferno 13-8 | 45 | Split | Over ✓ | OT |
| 2026-08-16 | Legacy | 13 Nuke 11-13 | 15 Inferno 8-13 | 28 | L | Under ✗ |
