KillsBetter playRisk
Line
27.5
Pick
OVER
Projection
28.46
Hit
52.5%
EV+
-9.1%
Edge
+1.0
L10
70%
HeadshotsRisk
Line
15
Pick
OVER
Projection
15.45
Hit
46.9%
EV+
-18.8%
Edge
+0.5
L10
50%
Rifler
n1ssim
Legacy vs Liquid
RISK · OVER 15
BEST OVER · UD 14.5PP15UD14.5
▲ L5 17.6 · L20 15.4Risk · Edge +0.5 far below ±2.0
Hit rates at 15 (Over)
L5
60%
3/5
L10
50%
5/10
L20
50%
10/20
H2H
N/A
Volatility
Medium
±4.67
Previous meeting · vs Liquid
No meeting with Liquid in his last 20 series.
LAN vs online form
LAN · this match
15.4
10/20 hit at 15
Online
—
no series
Avg headshots on Maps 1-2. The learned hit % now leans toward his form in this setting.
Late checks & sources
- Map veto (currently estimated)
- Confirm n1ssim is in the starting five
- Re-check line: PASS at 15
bo3.gg per-map player statsbo3.gg match scheduleWin chance: Polymarket 67.5%
Unverified / missing: Maps 1-2 not confirmed
prizepicks · Headshots · Maps 1-2Risk
What to watch · Needs 16+ HS (~29 kills at 54.3% HS): 0.65 KPR over ~43 rounds. His Kills line is 27.5: backing Kills Over needs ~1 fewer kill, usually the easier play. Main danger: a fast 2-0 (55.8%) or blowout (25.5%) cuts rounds.
Side
Over
Projection
15.45
Raw edge
+0.5
Cons. hit
46.9%
EV+
-18.8%
Rating
1.5/10
Exp. rounds
42.5
Line
15
Verdict
Risk
Plain model
46.9%
0 →
Learned
46.9%
what past results change
learning 0x
learning 0x
Same-line track record · Over 13-17
All players · Headshots
58.9%333 picks
This player
100%2 picks
Green = above the 57.7% a 2-pick needs. Graded picks only, pushes left out.
raw 47.1% → −8% haircut · cap 68% · per-leg 1.732x · threshold ±2 (pref ±2.5)
- Edge +0.5 below ±2.0 minimum
- EV+ not positive at current payout
- Blowout win risk — team 71% to win. A 13-3 stomp means fewer rounds to farm kills; still playable.
Sharp checks · 5/5 active
Big enough sample · 20 recent series (need 8+)
L10 hit rate ≥ 60%off · L10 50.0% at this line
L20 hit rate ≥ 55%off · L20 50.0% at this line
Game script fits · 42.5 exp. rounds (need 38+) · blowout 26% (under 40%) · team 71% to win (20%+)
Standard line · Standard payout line
Bo3 series · Maps 1-2 guaranteed
L10 form (4/10 rule) · L10 5/10 at this line · projection 0.2 from his L10 avg
Projection = model only (the replay showed the last-5 blend didn't help)
Evidence & risk
Last 10 series Maps 1-2: avg 15.7 headshots vs line 15.0 (5/10 over). KPR 0.63, HS 54%. Next: vs Liquid, LAN.
Strongest: L10 average 15.7 against a 15.0 line
Biggest risk: Map veto not confirmed — Maps 1-2 estimated from recent map frequency
- Map veto not confirmed — Maps 1-2 estimated from recent map frequency
The read
Signal
ALIGNED
The call
PASS
Value
NO VALUE
- • Model 15.45 vs line 15 → +0.45 (3.0%)
- • Form L5 60% · L10 50% over this line
- • Heavy favourite (≥70%) → −1.5 rounds/map (learned from 16 real matches) · kill rate +6% KPR
- • Expected 42.5 rounds · 2-0 55.8% · OT 12.2%
Performance (last 40 maps)
Kills/Map
14.22
HS/Map
7.72
K/D
0.99
KPR
0.63
ADR
71.6
KAST
70%
HS%
54.3%
Multi-kill
13.8%
Kills projection
Map 1 (Ancient)8.1 · KPR 0.654 · 22.8r
Map 2 (Dust2)7.4 · KPR 0.693 · 19.7r
Required KPR to clear0.65
Base kills (Maps 1-2)28.58
Sweep / blowout / OT adj.-0.42%
Final projected kills28.46
× realistic HS% (54.3%)15.45
Liquid gives up (41 series)-8.4% vs norm
Likely HS totals · Maps 1-2
Bars in colour cash the Over 15. Model: 47.1% before the safety haircut.
Lopsided maps25.5%
~13 HS · 36r25.1%
Normal43.7%
~16 HS · 43r48%
Close maps18.6%
~17 HS · 46r57.1%
Overtime12.2%
~19 HS · 52r74.2%
Match context
Oct 26, 9:00 AM CTLANPGL Masters Bucharest 2026
Win chance source: Polymarket 70.5% · live
Heavy favourite (≥70%) → −1.5 rounds/map (learned from 16 real matches) · kill rate +6% KPR
Heads upBlowout win risk — team 71% to win. A 13-3 stomp means fewer rounds to farm kills; still playable.
M1 Ancient
22.8r
-2% KPR here
M2 Dust2
19.7r
+4% KPR here
Total
42.5r
2-0 sweep55.8%
Long Map 2 (24+ rounds)30.8%
Overtime12.2%
Blowout (13-5 or worse)25.5%
2-0 sweep is info only — Maps 1-2 are played either way. Sweep from win chance + his team's 2-0 rate + opponent's 2-0 rate + market. Rounds & blowout from 40 his-team maps + 24 opponent maps + 0 past-meeting maps.
Likely maps from his team's recent map frequency: Ancient / Dust2
Recent Maps 1-2 form
10 series · line 15 (Over) · avg 15.7 · hit 5/10 · tap a bar
15
Nearby lines
| 13 Over | 56.8% | below BE |
| 14 Over | 52% | below BE |
| 15 Over | 46.9% | OFFERED |
| 16 Over | 37.9% | below BE |
| 17 Over | 31.4% | below BE |
Break-even per leg: 57.7%
Becomes a PASS at: 15
Line movement
first 15→15no change
- First seen15Oct 25, 10:14 PM
Map stats
Dust2
10 maps
Kills
14.2
KPR
0.66
HS%
59.2%
K/D
1.04
Ancient
10 maps
Kills
15.2
KPR
0.62
HS%
49.3%
K/D
0.97
Mirage
9 maps
Kills
14.6
KPR
0.61
HS%
51.1%
K/D
1
Nuke
5 maps
Kills
17.4
KPR
0.7
HS%
54%
K/D
1.14
Cache
3 maps
Kills
12.7
KPR
0.61
HS%
71.1%
K/D
1
Inferno
3 maps
Kills
6.3
KPR
0.38
HS%
47.4%
K/D
0.53
Recent Maps 1-2 results
| Date | Opp | Map 1 | Map 2 | Total | Team | Prop | Flags |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-10-25 | DENDELE | 14 Cache 13-9 | 11 Mirage 19-17 | 25 | W | Over ✓ | OT |
| 2026-10-24 | Nemiga | 16 Ancient 23-25 | 7 Dust2 8-13 | 23 | L | Over ✓ | OT |
| 2026-10-16 | BetBoom | 9 Nuke 13-16 | 7 Dust2 13-11 | 16 | Split | Over ✓ | OT |
| 2026-10-15 | FURIA | 8 Cache 13-10 | 3 Inferno 5-13 | 11 | Split | Under ✗ | BO |
| 2026-10-14 | PARIVISION | 7 Dust2 13-11 | 6 Mirage 16-14 | 13 | W | Under ✗ | OT |
| 2026-10-06 | M80 | 5 Cache 4-13 | 8 Mirage 13-9 | 13 | Split | Under ✗ | BO |
| 2026-10-05 | 1win | 9 Dust2 8-13 | 4 Ancient 8-13 | 13 | L | Under ✗ | |
| 2026-10-04 | ShindeN | 9 Nuke 13-8 | 7 Mirage 13-11 | 16 | W | Over ✓ | |
| 2026-10-03 | PARIVISION | 7 Dust2 13-5 | 3 Inferno 2-13 | 10 | Split | Under ✗ | BO |
| 2026-09-13 | G2 | 9 Ancient 13-9 | 8 Mirage 13-10 | 17 | W | Over ✓ | |
| 2026-09-12 | MIBR | 9 Nuke 13-10 | 8 Ancient 11-13 | 17 | Split | Over ✓ | |
| 2026-09-10 | FURIA | 10 Mirage 13-7 | 7 Ancient 13-9 | 17 | W | Over ✓ | |
| 2026-09-09 | Alliance | 3 Inferno 13-4 | 6 Dust2 13-6 | 9 | W | Under ✗ | BO |
| 2026-09-08 | magic | 8 Ancient 13-7 | 7 Dust2 7-13 | 15 | Split | Under ✗ | |
| 2026-08-30 | Vitality | 13 Nuke 14-16 | 4 Mirage 13-9 | 17 | Split | Over ✓ | OT |
| 2026-08-29 | Falcons | 8 Mirage 6-13 | 10 Ancient 13-10 | 18 | Split | Over ✓ | |
| 2026-08-27 | FUT | 6 Ancient 13-10 | 13 Dust2 13-11 | 19 | W | Over ✓ | |
| 2026-08-23 | FURIA | 4 Ancient 9-13 | 7 Nuke 13-9 | 11 | Split | Under ✗ | |
| 2026-08-22 | Spirit | 12 Dust2 7-13 | 3 Ancient 9-13 | 15 | L | Under ✗ | |
| 2026-08-21 | Falcons | 5 Mirage 13-7 | 9 Dust2 13-10 | 14 | W | Under ✗ |
