KillsRisk
Line
22
Pick
UNDER
Projection
22.13
Hit
43.5%
EV+
-24.6%
Edge
+0.1
L10
70%
HeadshotsBetter playRisk
Line
12
Pick
UNDER
Projection
11.29
Hit
49.6%
EV+
-14.1%
Edge
-0.7
L10
60%
Rifler · IGL
Aleksib
Natus Vincere vs G2
RISK · UNDER 12
BEST UNDER · PP 12PP12UD10.5
▲ L5 12.2 · L20 10.6Risk · Edge -0.7 far below ±2.0LAN UNDER · 44% hit
Hit rates at 12 (Under)
L5
40%
2/5
L10
60%
6/10
L20
60%
12/20
H2H
67%
2/3
Volatility
Low
±3.43
Previous meeting · vs G2
2/3 hit · avg 11 headshots on Maps 1-2
2026-10-03 · ESL Pro League Season 24
Cache 13-7 · Inferno 13-4 · W
10
Under 12 ✓
2026-08-30 · BLAST Open Fall 2026
Ancient 6-13 · Inferno 10-13 · L
8
Under 12 ✓
2026-06-15 · Intel Extreme Masters Cologne Major 2026
Dust2 13-11 · Inferno 14-16 · Split
15
Over 12 ✗
LAN vs online form
LAN · this match
10.6
12/20 hit at 12
Online
—
no series
Avg headshots on Maps 1-2. The learned hit % now leans toward his form in this setting.
Late checks & sources
- Map veto (currently estimated)
- Confirm Aleksib is in the starting five
- Re-check line: PASS at 12
bo3.gg per-map player statsbo3.gg match scheduleWin chance: Polymarket 57.5%
Unverified / missing: Maps 1-2 not confirmed
prizepicks · Headshots · Maps 1-2Risk
What to watch · Stays under with 11 HS or fewer (under ~24 kills at 51% HS): below 0.517 KPR over ~46 rounds. Main danger: overtime (7.8%) or long close maps add rounds.
Side
Under
Projection
11.29
Raw edge
-0.7
Cons. hit
49.6%
EV+
-14.1%
Rating
1/10
Exp. rounds
45.5
Line
12
Verdict
Risk
Plain model
49.6%
0 →
Learned
49.6%
what past results change
learning 0x
learning 0x
Same-line track record · Under 10-14
All players · Headshots
46.1%230 picks
This player
33.3%3 picks
Green = above the 57.7% a 2-pick needs. Graded picks only, pushes left out.
raw 58.2% → −8% haircut · cap 68% · per-leg 1.732x · threshold ±2 (pref ±2.5)
- Edge -0.7 below ±2.0 minimum
- EV+ not positive at current payout
- Game script fits: team 57% to win (not a 55-64% favourite)
- Under risk — team 57% to win; favourites win more rounds and their players usually get more kills.
Sharp checks · 4/5 active
Big enough sample · 20 recent series (need 8+)
L10 hit rate ≥ 60%off · L10 60.0% at this line
L20 hit rate ≥ 55%off · L20 60.0% at this line
Game script fits · team 57% to win (not a 55-64% favourite)
Standard line · Standard payout line
Bo3 series · Maps 1-2 guaranteed
L10 form (4/10 rule) · L10 6/10 at this line · projection 0.5 from his L10 avg
Projection = model only (the replay showed the last-5 blend didn't help)
Evidence & risk
Last 10 series Maps 1-2: avg 10.8 headshots vs line 11.0 (4/10 over). KPR 0.46, HS 51%. Next: vs G2, LAN.
Strongest: L10 average 10.8 against a 11.0 line
Biggest risk: Map veto not confirmed — Maps 1-2 estimated from recent map frequency
- Map veto not confirmed — Maps 1-2 estimated from recent map frequency
The read
Signal
MIXED
The call
PASS
Value
NO VALUE
- • Model 11.29 vs line 12 → -0.71 (-5.9%)
- • Form L5 40% · L10 60% under this line
- • Close match (45–65%) → +1.0 rounds/map (learned from 23 real matches) · kill rate −3% KPR
- • Expected 45.5 rounds · 2-0 50.9% · OT 7.8%
Performance (last 40 maps)
Kills/Map
10.4
HS/Map
5.3
K/D
0.83
KPR
0.46
ADR
57.6
KAST
74.1%
HS%
51%
Multi-kill
8.4%
Kills projection
Map 1 (Inferno)5.8 · KPR 0.521 · 22.2r
Map 2 (Anubis)5.4 · KPR 0.462 · 23.3r
Required KPR to clear0.517
Base kills (Maps 1-2)22.32
Sweep / blowout / OT adj.-0.83%
Final projected kills22.13
× realistic HS% (51%)11.29
G2 gives up (86 series)-1.6% vs norm
Likely HS totals · Maps 1-2
Bars in colour cash the Under 12. Model: 58.2% before the safety haircut.
Lopsided maps26.7%
~10 HS · 38r75%
Normal46.6%
~12 HS · 47r50.7%
Close maps18.9%
~12 HS · 49r45.6%
Overtime7.8%
~14 HS · 55r30.4%
Match context
Oct 24, 11:00 AM CTLANPGL Masters Bucharest 2026
Win chance source: Polymarket 57.5%
Close match (45–65%) → +1.0 rounds/map (learned from 23 real matches) · kill rate −3% KPR
Heads upUnder risk — team 57% to win; favourites win more rounds and their players usually get more kills.
M1 Inferno
22.2r
+17% KPR here
M2 Anubis
23.3r
+4% KPR here
Total
45.5r
2-0 sweep50.9%
Long Map 2 (24+ rounds)26.7%
Overtime7.8%
Blowout (13-5 or worse)26.7%
2-0 sweep is info only — Maps 1-2 are played either way.
Likely maps from his team's recent map frequency: Inferno / Anubis
Recent Maps 1-2 form
10 series · line 12 (Under) · avg 10.8 · hit 6/10 · tap a bar
12
Nearby lines
| 10 Under | 29.9% | below BE |
| 11 Under | 40.6% | below BE |
| 12 Under | 49.6% | OFFERED |
| 13 Under | 57.6% | below BE |
| 14 Under | 62.7% |
Break-even per leg: 57.7%
Becomes a PASS at: 12
Line movement
first 11→12+1
- Back on board12 → 12Oct 24, 05:16 PM
- Pulled12Oct 24, 05:15 PM
- Back on board11 → 12Oct 24, 05:15 PM
- Pulled11Oct 24, 11:15 AM
- First seen11Oct 23, 07:00 PM
Map stats
Inferno
9 maps
Kills
11.9
KPR
0.56
HS%
51.4%
K/D
0.94
Ancient
6 maps
Kills
12.5
KPR
0.58
HS%
46.7%
K/D
0.85
Anubis
6 maps
Kills
11
KPR
0.49
HS%
39.4%
K/D
0.81
Nuke
6 maps
Kills
10.5
KPR
0.53
HS%
65.1%
K/D
1
Mirage
5 maps
Kills
7.8
KPR
0.39
HS%
59%
K/D
0.65
Cache
4 maps
Kills
8.5
KPR
0.4
HS%
50%
K/D
0.74
Dust2
4 maps
Kills
8
KPR
0.41
HS%
46.9%
K/D
0.62
Recent Maps 1-2 results
| Date | Opp | Map 1 | Map 2 | Total | Team | Prop | Flags |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-10-07 | PARIVISION | 8 Inferno 13-8 | 2 Cache 10-13 | 10 | Split | Under ✓ | |
| 2026-10-06 | Falcons | 4 Inferno 6-13 | 8 Anubis 19-15 | 12 | Split | Under ✗ | OT |
| 2026-10-05 | 9z | 11 Nuke 13-6 | 5 Cache 13-6 | 16 | W | Over ✗ | |
| 2026-10-04 | Vitality | 7 Anubis 5-13 | 6 Nuke 13-5 | 13 | Split | Over ✗ | BO |
| 2026-10-03 | G2 | 5 Cache 13-7 | 5 Inferno 13-4 | 10 | W | Under ✓ | BO |
| 2026-09-18 | MOUZ | 5 Cache 13-10 | 2 Inferno 10-13 | 7 | Split | Under ✓ | |
| 2026-09-17 | Aurora | 6 Nuke 8-13 | 5 Mirage 7-13 | 11 | L | Under ✓ | |
| 2026-08-30 | G2 | 2 Ancient 6-13 | 6 Inferno 10-13 | 8 | L | Under ✓ | |
| 2026-08-28 | paiN | 5 Nuke 13-9 | 11 Mirage 13-11 | 16 | W | Over ✗ | |
| 2026-08-26 | M80 | 3 Anubis 13-4 | 2 Mirage 6-13 | 5 | Split | Under ✓ | BO |
| 2026-08-20 | Legacy | 6 Inferno 9-13 | 4 Ancient 2-13 | 10 | L | Under ✓ | BO |
| 2026-08-15 | The MongolZ | 7 Inferno 13-5 | 8 Ancient 9-13 | 15 | Split | Over ✗ | BO |
| 2026-06-15 | G2 | 3 Dust2 13-11 | 12 Inferno 14-16 | 15 | Split | Over ✗ | OT |
| 2026-06-14 | Falcons | 3 Dust2 3-13 | 3 Mirage 13-7 | 6 | Split | Under ✓ | BO |
| 2026-06-13 | The MongolZ | 3 Nuke 8-13 | 5 Ancient 16-13 | 8 | Split | Under ✓ | OT |
| 2026-06-12 | Legacy | 5 Inferno 13-4 | 6 Ancient 13-10 | 11 | W | Under ✓ | BO |
| 2026-06-11 | Spirit | 2 Dust2 1-13 | 0 Anubis 8-13 | 2 | L | Under ✓ | BO |
| 2026-05-17 | GamerLegion | 2 Mirage 13-3 | 3 Anubis 13-9 | 5 | W | Under ✓ | BO |
| 2026-05-16 | BetBoom | 10 Ancient 13-8 | 10 Nuke 13-6 | 20 | W | Over ✗ | |
| 2026-05-15 | Vitality | 7 Dust2 11-13 | 5 Anubis 13-11 | 12 | Split | Under ✗ |
