KillsBetter playPlayable
Line
21
Pick
OVER
Projection
24
Hit
62.9%
EV+
+8.9%
Edge
+3.0
L10
50%
HeadshotsRisk
Line
13
Pick
OVER
Projection
13.97
Hit
55.7%
EV+
-3.5%
Edge
+1.0
L10
50%
Rifler
Moseyuh
TYLOO vs FUT
RISK · OVER 13
BEST OVER · PP 13PP13UD13.5
▲ L5 14.4 · L20 13.8Risk · Edge +1.0 far below ±2.0
Hit rates at 13 (Over)
L5
60%
3/5
L10
50%
5/10
L20
50%
8/16
H2H
100%
1/1
Volatility
Low
±3.16
Previous meeting · vs FUT
1/1 hit · avg 16 headshots on Maps 1-2
2026-10-24 · PGL Masters Bucharest 2026
Nuke 9-13 · Ancient 6-13 · L
16
Over 13 ✓
LAN vs online form
LAN
14
6/11 hit at 13
Online · this match
13.2
2/5 hit at 13
Avg headshots on Maps 1-2. The learned hit % now leans toward his form in this setting.
Late checks & sources
- Map veto (currently estimated)
- Confirm Moseyuh is in the starting five
- Re-check line: PASS at 13
bo3.gg per-map player statsbo3.gg match schedule
Unverified / missing: Maps 1-2 not confirmed
prizepicks · Headshots · Maps 1-2Risk
What to watch · Needs 14+ HS (~24 kills at 58.7% HS): 0.566 KPR over ~39 rounds. His Kills line is 21: backing Kills Over needs ~3 fewer kills, usually the easier play. Main danger: a fast 2-0 (57.5%) or blowout (29.7%) cuts rounds.
Side
Over
Projection
13.97
Raw edge
+1.0
Cons. hit
55.7%
EV+
-3.5%
Rating
4.7/10
Exp. rounds
39.1
Line
13
Verdict
Risk
Plain model
55.7%
0 →
Learned
55.7%
what past results change
learning 0x
learning 0x
Same-line track record · Over 11-15
All players · Headshots
55.4%224 picks
This player
0%1 picks
Green = above the 57.7% a 2-pick needs. Graded picks only, pushes left out.
raw 52% → −8% haircut · cap 74% · per-leg 1.732x · threshold ±2 (pref ±2.5)
- Edge +1.0 below ±2.0 minimum
- EV+ not positive at current payout
Sharp checks · 6/6
Big enough sample · 16 recent series (need 8+)
L10 hit rate ≥ 60% · L10 50.0% at this line · gate off (replay: didn't help)
L20 hit rate ≥ 55% · L20 50.0% at this line · gate off (replay: didn't help)
Game script fits · 39.1 exp. rounds (need 38+) · blowout 30% (under 40%)
Standard line · Standard payout line
Bo3 series · Maps 1-2 guaranteed
Projection = model only (the replay showed the last-5 blend didn't help)
Evidence & risk
Last 10 series Maps 1-2: avg 13.8 headshots vs line 15.5 (4/10 over). KPR 0.57, HS 59%. Next: vs FUT, LAN/Online unknown.
Strongest: L10 average 13.8 against a 15.5 line
Biggest risk: 31% of recent maps were blowouts (13-5 or worse)
- 31% of recent maps were blowouts (13-5 or worse)
- Map veto not confirmed — Maps 1-2 estimated from recent map frequency
The read
Signal
ALIGNED
The call
PASS
Value
NO VALUE
- • Model 13.97 vs line 13 → +0.97 (7.5%)
- • Form L5 60% · L10 50% over this line
- • Win chance unknown — no favourite adjustment
- • Expected 39.1 rounds · 2-0 57.5% · OT 1.4%
Performance (last 32 maps)
Kills/Map
11.72
HS/Map
6.88
K/D
0.92
KPR
0.57
ADR
62.5
KAST
72.5%
HS%
58.7%
Multi-kill
13.2%
Kills projection
Map 1 (Mirage)7.1 · KPR 0.648 · 19r
Map 2 (Ancient)7.2 · KPR 0.625 · 20.1r
Required KPR to clear0.566
Base kills (Maps 1-2)24.87
Sweep / blowout / OT adj.-1.84%
Final projected kills24.42
× realistic HS% (58.7%)13.97
FUT gives up (43 series)+1.4% vs norm
Likely HS totals · Maps 1-2
Bars in colour cash the Over 13. Model: 52% before the safety haircut.
Lopsided maps29.7%
~12 HS · 33r29.4%
Normal58.3%
~15 HS · 42r61.9%
Close maps10.6%
~15 HS · 42r62.8%
Overtime1.4%
~17 HS · 48r79.9%
Match context
Oct 24, 07:00 AMOnline
Win chance source: —
Win chance unknown — no favourite adjustment
M1 Mirage
19r
+14% KPR here
M2 Ancient
20.1r
+10% KPR here
Total
39.1r
2-0 sweep57.5%
Long Map 2 (24+ rounds)12%
Overtime1.4%
Blowout (13-5 or worse)29.7%
2-0 sweep is info only — Maps 1-2 are played either way.
Likely maps from his team's recent map frequency: Mirage / Ancient
Recent Maps 1-2 form
10 series · line 13 (Over) · avg 13.8 · hit 5/10 · tap a bar
13
Nearby lines
| 11 Over | 66.6% | |
| 12 Over | 62.1% | |
| 13 Over | 55.7% | OFFERED |
| 14 Over | 48.5% | below BE |
| 15 Over | 41.7% | below BE |
Break-even per leg: 57.7%
Becomes a PASS at: 13
Line movement
first 15.5→13-2.5
- Back on board15.5 → 13Oct 24, 09:06 PM
- Pulled15.5Oct 24, 07:00 AM
- First seen15.5Oct 24, 12:00 AM
Map stats
Mirage
10 maps
Kills
12.3
KPR
0.67
HS%
61.8%
K/D
1.05
Inferno
7 maps
Kills
7.3
KPR
0.36
HS%
49%
K/D
0.53
Ancient
7 maps
Kills
12.7
KPR
0.65
HS%
51.7%
K/D
1.11
Nuke
5 maps
Kills
14.6
KPR
0.68
HS%
69.9%
K/D
0.97
Cache
2 maps
Kills
14.5
KPR
0.72
HS%
58.6%
K/D
1.21
Anubis
1 maps
Kills
10
KPR
0.5
HS%
50%
K/D
0.62
Recent Maps 1-2 results
| Date | Opp | Map 1 | Map 2 | Total | Team | Prop | Flags |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-10-24 | FUT | 9 Nuke 9-13 | 7 Ancient 6-13 | 16 | L | Over ✓ | |
| 2026-10-05 | M80 | 10 Mirage 13-10 | 7 Cache 7-13 | 17 | Split | Over ✓ | |
| 2026-10-04 | 9z | 14 Nuke 10-13 | 0 Mirage 2-13 | 14 | L | Over ✓ | BO |
| 2026-10-03 | Falcons | 7 Mirage 11-13 | 5 Anubis 7-13 | 12 | L | Under ✗ | |
| 2026-09-10 | Alliance | 2 Inferno 11-13 | 11 Ancient 11-13 | 13 | L | Under ✗ | |
| 2026-09-09 | GamerLegion | 9 Ancient 13-7 | 9 Mirage 13-6 | 18 | W | Over ✓ | |
| 2026-09-08 | PARIVISION | 4 Inferno 11-13 | 3 Ancient 4-13 | 7 | L | Under ✗ | BO |
| 2026-09-02 | DEPO | 8 Mirage 13-2 | 4 Inferno 13-2 | 12 | W | Under ✗ | BO |
| 2026-09-02 | Kaleido | 11 Mirage 13-5 | 6 Inferno 13-9 | 17 | W | Over ✓ | BO |
| 2026-08-14 | Lynn Vision | 9 Nuke 8-13 | 3 Inferno 4-13 | 12 | L | Under ✗ | BO |
| 2026-07-12 | Lynn Vision | 3 Ancient 13-6 | 1 Inferno 10-13 | 4 | Split | Under ✗ | |
| 2026-07-11 | The Huns | 9 Ancient 13-9 | 11 Mirage 13-2 | 20 | W | Over ✓ | BO |
| 2026-07-10 | The MongolZ Academy | 4 Ancient 13-3 | 9 Mirage 13-1 | 13 | W | Under ✗ | BO |
| 2026-07-09 | 9z | 9 Nuke 9-13 | 7 Mirage 13-7 | 16 | Split | Over ✓ | |
| 2026-07-03 | EYEBALLERS | 10 Nuke 13-6 | 10 Cache 13-7 | 20 | W | Over ✓ | |
| 2026-06-09 | Legacy | 4 Mirage 7-13 | 5 Inferno 4-13 | 9 | L | Under ✗ | BO |
