KillsBetter playLean
Line
32.5
Pick
OVER
Projection
39.61
Hit
69.3%
EV+
+20.1%
Edge
+7.1
L10
50%
HeadshotsLean
Line
12.5
Pick
OVER
Projection
15.34
Hit
66.9%
EV+
+15.9%
Edge
+2.8
L10
50%
AWPer
w0nderful
Natus Vincere vs G2
LEAN · OVER 12.5
BEST OVER · UD 11.5PP12.5UD11.5
≈ L5 13.2 · L20 13.4
Hit rates at 12.5 (Over)
L5
60%
3/5
L10
50%
5/10
L20
60%
12/20
H2H
67%
2/3
Volatility
Low
±2.89
Previous meeting · vs G2
2/3 hit · avg 12.7 headshots on Maps 1-2
2026-10-03 · ESL Pro League Season 24
Cache 13-7 · Inferno 13-4 · W
14
Over 12.5 ✓
2026-08-30 · BLAST Open Fall 2026
Ancient 6-13 · Inferno 10-13 · L
9
Under 12.5 ✗
2026-06-15 · Intel Extreme Masters Cologne Major 2026
Dust2 13-11 · Inferno 14-16 · Split
15
Over 12.5 ✓
LAN vs online form
LAN · this match
13.4
12/20 hit at 12.5
Online
—
no series
Avg headshots on Maps 1-2. The learned hit % now leans toward his form in this setting.
Late checks & sources
- Map veto (currently estimated)
- Confirm w0nderful is in the starting five
- Re-check line: PASS at 13.5
bo3.gg per-map player statsbo3.gg match scheduleWin chance: Polymarket 57.5%
Unverified / missing: Maps 1-2 not confirmed
prizepicks · Headshots · Maps 1-2Lean
What to watch · Needs 13+ HS (~31 kills at 42.2% HS): 0.646 KPR over ~46 rounds. Main danger: a fast 2-0 (50.9%) or blowout (26.7%) cuts rounds.
Side
Over
Projection
15.34
Raw edge
+2.8
Cons. hit
66.9%
EV+
+15.9%
Rating
5.5/10
Exp. rounds
45.9
Line
12.5
Verdict
Lean
Plain model
66.9%
+7.2 →
Learned
74.1%
what past results change
learning 0.5x
learning 0.5x
Same-line track record · Over 10.5-14.5
All players · Headshots
56%243 picks
This player
100%2 picks
Green = above the 57.7% a 2-pick needs. Graded picks only, pushes left out.
raw 70.7% → −8% haircut · cap 74% · per-leg 1.732x · threshold ±2 (pref ±2.5)
- L10 hit rate ≥ 60%: L10 50.0% at this line
Sharp checks · 5/6
Big enough sample · 20 recent series (need 8+)
L10 hit rate ≥ 60% · L10 50.0% at this line
L20 hit rate ≥ 55% · L20 60.0% at this line
Game script fits · 45.9 exp. rounds (need 38+) · blowout 27% (under 40%) · team 57% to win (20%+)
Standard line · Standard payout line
Bo3 series · Maps 1-2 guaranteed
Projection = 70% model (15.52) + 30% last-5 average
Evidence & risk
Last 10 series Maps 1-2: avg 12.8 headshots vs line 12.5 (5/10 over). KPR 0.78, HS 42%. Next: vs G2, LAN.
Strongest: L10 average 12.8 against a 12.5 line
Biggest risk: Map veto not confirmed — Maps 1-2 estimated from recent map frequency
- Map veto not confirmed — Maps 1-2 estimated from recent map frequency
The read
Signal
PARTIAL
The call
SMALL EDGE ONLY
Value
VALUE
- • Model 15.34 vs line 12.5 → +2.84 (22.7%)
- • Form L5 60% · L10 50% over this line
- • Close match (45–65%) → +1.2 rounds/map (learned from 21 real matches) · kill rate −1% KPR
- • Expected 45.9 rounds · 2-0 50.9% · OT 7.8%
Performance (last 40 maps)
Kills/Map
15.88
HS/Map
6.7
K/D
1.27
KPR
0.78
ADR
76
KAST
76.6%
HS%
42.2%
Multi-kill
19.8%
Kills projection
Map 1 (Inferno)6.9 · KPR 0.739 · 22.4r
Map 2 (Anubis)8.6 · KPR 0.877 · 23.5r
Required KPR to clear0.646
Base kills (Maps 1-2)37.13
Sweep / blowout / OT adj.-0.98%
Final projected kills36.77
× realistic HS% (42.2%)15.34
G2 gives up (86 series)-1.6% vs norm
Likely HS totals · Maps 1-2
Bars in colour cash the Over 12.5. Model: 70.7% before the safety haircut.
Lopsided maps26.7%
~13 HS · 39r52.2%
Normal46.6%
~16 HS · 47r78.7%
Close maps18.9%
~16 HS · 49r82.6%
Overtime7.8%
~18 HS · 55r91.8%
Match context
Oct 24, 04:00 PMLANPGL Masters Bucharest 2026
Win chance source: Polymarket 57.5%
Close match (45–65%) → +1.2 rounds/map (learned from 21 real matches) · kill rate −1% KPR
Game scriptIdeal Over range — team 57% to win (40-70%), competitive maps expected.
M1 Inferno
22.4r
-4% KPR here
M2 Anubis
23.5r
+13% KPR here
Total
45.9r
2-0 sweep50.9%
Long Map 2 (24+ rounds)26.7%
Overtime7.8%
Blowout (13-5 or worse)26.7%
2-0 sweep is info only — Maps 1-2 are played either way.
Likely maps from his team's recent map frequency: Inferno / Anubis
Recent Maps 1-2 form
10 series · line 12.5 (Over) · avg 12.8 · hit 5/10 · tap a bar
12.5
Nearby lines
| 10.5 Over | 70.9% | |
| 11.5 Over | 69.4% | |
| 12.5 Over | 66.9% | OFFERED |
| 13.5 Over | 63% | |
| 14.5 Over | 57.6% | below BE |
Break-even per leg: 57.7%
Becomes a PASS at: 13.5
Line movement
first 12.5→12.5no change
- Back on board12.5 → 12.5Oct 24, 10:16 PM
- Pulled12.5Oct 24, 10:15 PM
- Back on board12.5 → 12.5Oct 24, 10:15 PM
- Pulled12.5Oct 24, 04:15 PM
- First seen12.5Oct 24, 12:00 AM
Map stats
Inferno
9 maps
Kills
15.4
KPR
0.73
HS%
43.9%
K/D
1.34
Ancient
6 maps
Kills
13.7
KPR
0.64
HS%
41.5%
K/D
0.9
Anubis
6 maps
Kills
21.2
KPR
0.93
HS%
42.5%
K/D
1.63
Nuke
6 maps
Kills
14.5
KPR
0.72
HS%
46%
K/D
1.28
Mirage
5 maps
Kills
14
KPR
0.71
HS%
45.7%
K/D
1.08
Cache
4 maps
Kills
20.2
KPR
0.95
HS%
35.8%
K/D
1.93
Dust2
4 maps
Kills
12.2
KPR
0.63
HS%
36.7%
K/D
0.94
Recent Maps 1-2 results
| Date | Opp | Map 1 | Map 2 | Total | Team | Prop | Flags |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-10-07 | PARIVISION | 6 Inferno 13-8 | 6 Cache 10-13 | 12 | Split | Under ✗ | |
| 2026-10-06 | Falcons | 9 Inferno 6-13 | 9 Anubis 19-15 | 18 | Split | Over ✓ | OT |
| 2026-10-05 | 9z | 4 Nuke 13-6 | 5 Cache 13-6 | 9 | W | Under ✗ | |
| 2026-10-04 | Vitality | 8 Anubis 5-13 | 5 Nuke 13-5 | 13 | Split | Over ✓ | BO |
| 2026-10-03 | G2 | 8 Cache 13-7 | 6 Inferno 13-4 | 14 | W | Over ✓ | BO |
| 2026-09-18 | MOUZ | 10 Cache 13-10 | 4 Inferno 10-13 | 14 | Split | Over ✓ | |
| 2026-09-17 | Aurora | 3 Nuke 8-13 | 8 Mirage 7-13 | 11 | L | Under ✗ | |
| 2026-08-30 | G2 | 6 Ancient 6-13 | 3 Inferno 10-13 | 9 | L | Under ✗ | |
| 2026-08-28 | paiN | 12 Nuke 13-9 | 5 Mirage 13-11 | 17 | W | Over ✓ | |
| 2026-08-26 | M80 | 5 Anubis 13-4 | 6 Mirage 6-13 | 11 | Split | Under ✗ | BO |
| 2026-08-20 | Legacy | 12 Inferno 9-13 | 3 Ancient 2-13 | 15 | L | Over ✓ | BO |
| 2026-08-15 | The MongolZ | 7 Inferno 13-5 | 4 Ancient 9-13 | 11 | Split | Under ✗ | BO |
| 2026-06-15 | G2 | 8 Dust2 13-11 | 7 Inferno 14-16 | 15 | Split | Over ✓ | OT |
| 2026-06-14 | Falcons | 3 Dust2 3-13 | 6 Mirage 13-7 | 9 | Split | Under ✗ | BO |
| 2026-06-13 | The MongolZ | 7 Nuke 8-13 | 6 Ancient 16-13 | 13 | Split | Over ✓ | OT |
| 2026-06-12 | Legacy | 7 Inferno 13-4 | 7 Ancient 13-10 | 14 | W | Over ✓ | BO |
| 2026-06-11 | Spirit | 3 Dust2 1-13 | 6 Anubis 8-13 | 9 | L | Under ✗ | BO |
| 2026-05-17 | GamerLegion | 7 Mirage 13-3 | 13 Anubis 13-9 | 20 | W | Over ✓ | BO |
| 2026-05-16 | BetBoom | 8 Ancient 13-8 | 9 Nuke 13-6 | 17 | W | Over ✓ | |
| 2026-05-15 | Vitality | 4 Dust2 11-13 | 13 Anubis 13-11 | 17 | Split | Over ✓ |
