KillsBetter playRisk
Line
30
Pick
OVER
Projection
31.34
Hit
53.9%
EV+
-6.6%
Edge
+1.3
L10
40%
HeadshotsRisk
Line
10
Pick
OVER
Projection
10.09
Hit
47.1%
EV+
-18.4%
Edge
+0.1
L10
30%
AWPer
woxic
Aurora vs The MongolZ
RISK · OVER 30
BEST OVER · UD 29.5PP30UD29.5
≈ L5 29.4 · L20 29.8Risk · Recent form (L5/L10) leans the other way +1L10 4/10 BLOCK
Hit rates at 30 (Over)
L5
40%
2/5
L10
40%
4/10
L20
45%
9/20
H2H
0%
0/1
Volatility
Low
±4.86
Previous meeting · vs The MongolZ
0/1 hit · avg 25 kills on Maps 1-2
2026-10-24 · PGL Masters Bucharest 2026
Inferno 16-12 · Nuke 2-13 · Split
25
Under 30 ✗
LAN vs online form
LAN
29.8
9/20 hit at 30
Online · this match
—
no series
Avg kills on Maps 1-2. The learned hit % now leans toward his form in this setting.
Late checks & sources
- Map veto (currently estimated)
- Confirm woxic is in the starting five
- Re-check line: PASS at 30
bo3.gg per-map player statsbo3.gg match schedule
Unverified / missing: Maps 1-2 not confirmed
prizepicks · Kills · Maps 1-2Risk
What to watch · Needs 31+ kills: 0.664 KPR over ~45 rounds. Main danger: a fast 2-0 (52.7%) or blowout (22.2%) cuts rounds.
Side
Over
Projection
31.34
Raw edge
+1.3
Cons. hit
53.9%
EV+
-6.6%
Rating
1.9/10
Exp. rounds
45.2
Line
30
Verdict
Risk
Plain model
53.9%
0 →
Learned
53.9%
what past results change
learning 0x
learning 0x
Same-line track record · Over 28-32
All players · Kills
54.7%417 picks
This player
66.7%3 picks
Green = above the 57.7% a 2-pick needs. Graded picks only, pushes left out.
raw 60.8% → −8% haircut · cap 68% · per-leg 1.732x · threshold ±3 (pref ±4)
- Edge +1.3 below ±3.0 minimum
- Recent form (L5/L10) does not lean the same way
- EV+ not positive at current payout
- L10 form (4/10 rule): L10 4/10 at this line · projection 2.8 from his L10 avg · blocked
Sharp checks · 4/5 active
L10 only 40% at this line (under 50%)
Big enough sample · 20 recent series (need 8+)
L10 hit rate ≥ 60%off · L10 40.0% at this line
L20 hit rate ≥ 55%off · L20 45.0% at this line
Game script fits · 45.2 exp. rounds (need 38+) · blowout 22% (under 40%)
Standard line · Standard payout line
Bo3 series · Maps 1-2 guaranteed
L10 form (4/10 rule) · L10 4/10 at this line · projection 2.8 from his L10 avg · blocked
Projection = model only (the replay showed the last-5 blend didn't help)
Evidence & risk
Last 10 series Maps 1-2: avg 28.5 kills vs line 30.5 (4/10 over). KPR 0.66, HS 32%. Next: vs The MongolZ, LAN/Online unknown.
Strongest: L10 average 28.5 against a 30.5 line
Biggest risk: Map veto not confirmed — Maps 1-2 estimated from recent map frequency
- Map veto not confirmed — Maps 1-2 estimated from recent map frequency
The read
Signal
MIXED
The call
PASS
Value
NO VALUE
- • Model 31.34 vs line 30 → +1.34 (4.5%)
- • Form L5 40% · L10 40% over this line
- • Win chance unknown — no favourite adjustment
- • Expected 45.2 rounds · 2-0 52.7% · OT 12.2%
Performance (last 40 maps)
Kills/Map
14.9
HS/Map
4.8
K/D
1.13
KPR
0.66
ADR
70.4
KAST
70.2%
HS%
32.2%
Multi-kill
14.8%
Kills projection
Map 1 (Inferno)15.7 · KPR 0.67 · 23.4r
Map 2 (Dust2)15.7 · KPR 0.72 · 21.8r
Required KPR to clear0.664
Base kills (Maps 1-2)31.37
Sweep / blowout / OT adj.-0.11%
Final projected kills31.34
The MongolZ gives up (48 series)-1.9% vs norm
Likely kills totals · Maps 1-2
Bars in colour cash the Over 30. Model: 60.8% before the safety haircut.
Lopsided maps22.2%
~26 kills · 38r21%
Normal42.8%
~31 kills · 45r51.9%
Close maps22.8%
~34 kills · 48r68.7%
Overtime12.2%
~38 kills · 54r87.6%
Match context
Oct 24, 2:00 AM CTOnline
Win chance source: —
Win chance unknown — no favourite adjustment
M1 Inferno
23.4r
+2% KPR here
M2 Dust2
21.8r
+9% KPR here
Total
45.2r
2-0 sweep52.7%
Long Map 2 (24+ rounds)35%
Overtime12.2%
Blowout (13-5 or worse)22.2%
2-0 sweep is info only — Maps 1-2 are played either way.
Likely maps from his team's recent map frequency: Inferno / Dust2
Recent Maps 1-2 form
10 series · line 30 (Over) · avg 28.5 · hit 4/10 · tap a bar
30
Nearby lines
| 28 Over | 61% | |
| 29 Over | 58% | |
| 30 Over | 53.9% | OFFERED |
| 31 Over | 47.2% | below BE |
| 32 Over | 42.3% | below BE |
Break-even per leg: 57.7%
Becomes a PASS at: 30
Line movement
first 30.5→30-0.5
- Back on board30.5 → 30Oct 24, 05:16 PM
- Pulled30.5Oct 24, 02:00 AM
- First seen30.5Oct 23, 07:00 PM
Map stats
Inferno
8 maps
Kills
16.2
KPR
0.67
HS%
30.8%
K/D
1.16
Mirage
8 maps
Kills
16.2
KPR
0.7
HS%
30%
K/D
1.1
Dust2
8 maps
Kills
16.2
KPR
0.74
HS%
34.6%
K/D
1.33
Anubis
7 maps
Kills
14.1
KPR
0.72
HS%
33.3%
K/D
1.15
Cache
5 maps
Kills
12.8
KPR
0.6
HS%
25%
K/D
1.08
Nuke
4 maps
Kills
10.8
KPR
0.61
HS%
44.2%
K/D
0.77
Recent Maps 1-2 results
| Date | Opp | Map 1 | Map 2 | Total | Team | Prop | Flags |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-10-24 | The MongolZ | 16 Inferno 16-12 | 9 Nuke 2-13 | 25 | Split | Under ✗ | OTBO |
| 2026-10-18 | Falcons | 8 Anubis 8-13 | 30 Dust2 19-17 | 38 | Split | Over ✓ | OT |
| 2026-10-17 | FURIA | 12 Dust2 8-13 | 13 Inferno 10-13 | 25 | L | Under ✗ | |
| 2026-10-16 | 9z | 13 Cache 13-11 | 12 Inferno 13-4 | 25 | W | Under ✗ | BO |
| 2026-10-15 | Ninjas in Pyjamas | 18 Cache 13-9 | 16 Dust2 13-7 | 34 | W | Over ✓ | |
| 2026-10-14 | 9z | 19 Inferno 11-13 | 5 Nuke 1-13 | 24 | L | Under ✗ | BO |
| 2026-10-11 | Spirit | 9 Mirage 13-9 | 18 Anubis 13-6 | 27 | W | Under ✗ | |
| 2026-10-10 | Vitality | 22 Anubis 13-7 | 9 Cache 7-13 | 31 | Split | Over ✓ | |
| 2026-10-09 | 1win | 17 Dust2 13-9 | 16 Anubis 13-8 | 33 | W | Over ✓ | |
| 2026-10-06 | FURIA | 9 Dust2 8-13 | 14 Mirage 13-9 | 23 | Split | Under ✗ | |
| 2026-10-05 | BetBoom | 12 Mirage 13-4 | 15 Nuke 7-13 | 27 | Split | Under ✗ | BO |
| 2026-10-04 | Falcons | 13 Mirage 4-13 | 21 Dust2 10-13 | 34 | L | Over ✓ | BO |
| 2026-10-03 | 9z | 8 Dust2 13-3 | 20 Mirage 13-11 | 28 | W | Under ✗ | BO |
| 2026-09-20 | Vitality | 6 Anubis 4-13 | 17 Inferno 13-11 | 23 | Split | Under ✗ | BO |
| 2026-09-19 | Vitality | 16 Anubis 13-7 | 17 Inferno 11-13 | 33 | Split | Over ✓ | |
| 2026-09-18 | NRG | 12 Cache 13-7 | 32 Mirage 19-17 | 44 | W | Over ✓ | OT |
| 2026-09-17 | Natus Vincere | 14 Nuke 13-8 | 18 Mirage 13-7 | 32 | W | Over ✓ | |
| 2026-08-31 | G2 | 13 Anubis 13-7 | 24 Inferno 16-19 | 37 | Split | Over ✓ | OT |
| 2026-08-30 | M80 | 17 Dust2 13-3 | 12 Inferno 13-5 | 29 | W | Under ✗ | BO |
| 2026-08-28 | DENDELE | 12 Cache 13-7 | 12 Mirage 16-12 | 24 | W | Under ✗ | OT |
