KillsBetter playPlayable
Line
32
Pick
OVER
Projection
35.32
Hit
62.2%
EV+
+7.7%
Edge
+3.3
L10
60%
HeadshotsPlayable
Line
17.5
Pick
OVER
Projection
19.82
Hit
60.2%
EV+
+4.2%
Edge
+2.3
L10
50%
Rifler
xerolte
NEXVOID vs Off Chops
PLAYABLE · OVER 32
PP32
≈ L5 34.2 · L20 34.2
Hit rates at 32 (Over)
L5
60%
3/5
L10
60%
6/10
L20
60%
12/20
H2H
100%
1/1
Volatility
Low
±5.64
Previous meeting · vs Off Chops
1/1 hit · avg 38 kills on Maps 1-2
2026-10-18 · Logitech G Pro Series 2026
Dust2 19-17 · Inferno 13-9 · W
38
Over 32 ✓
LAN vs online form
LAN · this match
32.5
8/13 hit at 32
Online
37.4
4/7 hit at 32
Avg kills on Maps 1-2. The learned hit % now leans toward his form in this setting.
Late checks & sources
- Map veto (currently estimated)
- Confirm xerolte is in the starting five
- Re-check line: PASS at 32.5
bo3.gg per-map player statsbo3.gg match schedule
Unverified / missing: Maps 1-2 not confirmed
prizepicks · Kills · Maps 1-2Playable
What to watch · Needs 33+ kills: 0.737 KPR over ~43 rounds. Main danger: a fast 2-0 (58.5%) or blowout (23.1%) cuts rounds.
Side
Over
Projection
35.32
Raw edge
+3.3
Cons. hit
62.2%
EV+
+7.7%
Rating
8.5/10
Exp. rounds
43.4
Line
32
Verdict
Playable
Plain model
62.2%
0 →
Learned
62.2%
what past results change
learning 0x
learning 0x
Same-line track record · Over 30-34
All players · Kills
53.3%244 picks
This player
—0 picks
Green = above the 57.7% a 2-pick needs. Graded picks only, pushes left out.
raw 72.2% → −8% haircut · cap 68% · per-leg 1.732x · threshold ±3 (pref ±4)
Clears edge, form, EV+, volatility and every sharp check
Sharp checks · 5/5 active
Big enough sample · 20 recent series (need 8+)
L10 hit rate ≥ 60%off · L10 60.0% at this line
L20 hit rate ≥ 55%off · L20 60.0% at this line
Game script fits · 43.4 exp. rounds (need 38+) · blowout 23% (under 40%)
Standard line · Standard payout line
Bo3 series · Maps 1-2 guaranteed
L10 form (4/10 rule) · L10 6/10 at this line · projection 3.0 from his L10 avg
Projection = model only (the replay showed the last-5 blend didn't help)
Evidence & risk
Last 10 series Maps 1-2: avg 32.3 kills vs line 32.0 (6/10 over). KPR 0.75, HS 56%. Next: vs Off Chops, LAN.
Strongest: L10 average 32.3 against a 32.0 line
Biggest risk: Map veto not confirmed — Maps 1-2 estimated from recent map frequency
- Map veto not confirmed — Maps 1-2 estimated from recent map frequency
The read
Signal
ALIGNED
The call
TAKE OVER
Value
THIN
- • Model 35.32 vs line 32 → +3.32 (10.4%)
- • Form L5 60% · L10 60% over this line
- • Win chance unknown — no favourite adjustment
- • Expected 43.4 rounds · 2-0 58.5% · OT 12.2%
Performance (last 40 maps)
Kills/Map
17.1
HS/Map
9.6
K/D
1.17
KPR
0.76
ADR
84.3
KAST
72.2%
HS%
56.1%
Multi-kill
19.4%
Kills projection
Map 1 (Ancient)17 · KPR 0.762 · 22.4r
Map 2 (Inferno)18.3 · KPR 0.872 · 21r
Required KPR to clear0.737
Base kills (Maps 1-2)35.38
Sweep / blowout / OT adj.-0.17%
Final projected kills35.32
Likely kills totals · Maps 1-2
Bars in colour cash the Over 32. Model: 72.2% before the safety haircut.
Lopsided maps23.1%
~30 kills · 37r29.8%
Normal54.4%
~36 kills · 44r68.6%
Close maps10.3%
~38 kills · 46r79.7%
Overtime12.2%
~43 kills · 52r94.1%
Match context
Oct 27, 10:00 PM CTLANDFRAG Invitational 2026
Win chance source: —
Win chance unknown — no favourite adjustment
M1 Ancient
22.4r
+1% KPR here
M2 Inferno
21r
+15% KPR here
Total
43.4r
2-0 sweep58.5%
Long Map 2 (24+ rounds)22.5%
Overtime12.2%
Blowout (13-5 or worse)23.1%
2-0 sweep is info only — Maps 1-2 are played either way. Sweep from win chance + his team's 2-0 rate + opponent's 2-0 rate. Rounds & blowout from 40 his-team maps + 16 opponent maps + 2 past-meeting maps.
Likely maps from his team's recent map frequency: Ancient / Inferno
Recent Maps 1-2 form
10 series · line 32 (Over) · avg 32.3 · hit 6/10 · tap a bar
32
Nearby lines
| 30 Over | 65.4% | |
| 31 Over | 63.8% | |
| 32 Over | 62.2% | OFFERED |
| 33 Over | 58.4% | |
| 34 Over | 53% | below BE |
Break-even per leg: 57.7%
Becomes a PASS at: 32.5
Line movement
first 32→32no change
- First seen32Oct 26, 09:41 PM
Map stats
Ancient
12 maps
Kills
17.8
KPR
0.76
HS%
58.4%
K/D
1.16
Inferno
10 maps
Kills
17.5
KPR
0.91
HS%
52.6%
K/D
1.47
Dust2
8 maps
Kills
14.8
KPR
0.68
HS%
61%
K/D
0.96
Nuke
5 maps
Kills
19.2
KPR
0.74
HS%
55.2%
K/D
1.07
Cache
3 maps
Kills
16
KPR
0.76
HS%
39.6%
K/D
1.12
Anubis
2 maps
Kills
16.5
KPR
0.77
HS%
69.7%
K/D
1.18
Recent Maps 1-2 results
| Date | Opp | Map 1 | Map 2 | Total | Team | Prop | Flags |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-10-26 | Ground Zero | 15 Ancient 13-11 | 16 Anubis 13-8 | 31 | W | Under ✗ | |
| 2026-10-23 | Rare Atom | 20 Dust2 10-13 | 19 Ancient 11-13 | 39 | L | Over ✓ | |
| 2026-10-22 | Morningstar | 11 Dust2 13-6 | 26 Ancient 13-7 | 37 | W | Over ✓ | |
| 2026-10-21 | Chinggis Warriors | 6 Inferno 1-13 | 23 Cache 13-10 | 29 | Split | Under ✗ | BO |
| 2026-10-20 | Vitalem Aerem | 17 Dust2 5-13 | 18 Inferno 13-10 | 35 | Split | Over ✓ | BO |
| 2026-10-18 | FlyQuest | 10 Ancient 13-7 | 9 Dust2 6-13 | 19 | Split | Under ✗ | |
| 2026-10-18 | Off Chops | 17 Dust2 19-17 | 21 Inferno 13-9 | 38 | W | Over ✓ | OT |
| 2026-10-17 | FlyQuest | 24 Ancient 16-14 | 4 Dust2 2-13 | 28 | Split | Under ✗ | OTBO |
| 2026-10-15 | Rooster | 17 Anubis 13-9 | 16 Inferno 13-4 | 33 | W | Over ✓ | BO |
| 2026-10-15 | Mindfreak | 16 Cache 13-7 | 18 Inferno 13-5 | 34 | W | Over ✓ | BO |
| 2026-10-11 | Chinggis Warriors | 17 Nuke 13-9 | 7 Ancient 7-13 | 24 | Split | Under ✗ | |
| 2026-10-10 | 5star | 14 Ancient 13-5 | 25 Inferno 12-16 | 39 | Split | Over ✓ | OTBO |
| 2026-10-08 | The Huns | 19 Ancient 13-10 | 17 Inferno 13-5 | 36 | W | Over ✓ | BO |
| 2026-09-29 | Lynn Vision | 10 Ancient 11-13 | 14 Nuke 13-11 | 24 | Split | Under ✗ | |
| 2026-09-28 | The Huns | 41 Nuke 22-20 | 27 Ancient 13-11 | 68 | W | Over ✓ | OT |
| 2026-09-27 | Lynn Vision | 31 Ancient 14-16 | 10 Nuke 5-13 | 41 | L | Over ✓ | OTBO |
| 2026-09-25 | Legion | 18 Dust2 13-6 | 21 Inferno 13-7 | 39 | W | Over ✓ | |
| 2026-09-23 | Just Swing | 9 Cache 7-13 | 15 Inferno 13-4 | 24 | Split | Under ✗ | BO |
| 2026-09-22 | bLight blue | 22 Dust2 13-11 | 18 Inferno 13-3 | 40 | W | Over ✓ | BO |
| 2026-09-03 | Chinggis Warriors | 14 Nuke 11-13 | 12 Ancient 10-13 | 26 | L | Under ✗ |
