HeadshotsRisk
Line
10.5
Pick
OVER
Projection
11.08
Hit
58.3%
EV+
+1.0%
Edge
+0.6
L10
70%
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AWPer
saadzin
Imperial Esports vs paiN Gaming
RISK · OVER 10.5
▲ L5 11.2 · L20 10.6Risk · Edge +0.6 far below ±2.0
Hit rates at 10.5 (Over)
L5
80%
4/5
L10
70%
7/10
L20
57%
8/14
H2H
100%
1/1
Volatility
Low
±2.87
Previous meeting · vs paiN Gaming
1/1 hit · avg 11 headshots on Maps 1-2
2026-09-27 · FERJEE In House Season 2
Anubis 13-4 · Cache 13-11 · W
11
Over 10.5 ✓
LAN vs online form
LAN · this match
11.1
8/12 hit at 10.5
Online
8
0/2 hit at 10.5
Avg headshots on Maps 1-2. The learned hit % now leans toward his form in this setting.
Late checks & sources
- Map veto (currently estimated)
- Confirm saadzin is in the starting five
- Re-check line: PASS at 10.5
bo3.gg per-map player statsbo3.gg match scheduleWin chance: Polymarket 69.5%
Unverified / missing: Maps 1-2 not confirmed
underdog · Headshots · Maps 1-2Risk
What to watch · Needs 11+ HS (~33 kills at 32.9% HS): 0.74 KPR over ~43 rounds. His Kills line is 30.5: backing Kills Over needs ~2 fewer kills, usually the easier play. Main danger: a fast 2-0 (56%) or blowout (27.1%) cuts rounds.
Side
Over
Projection
11.08
Raw edge
+0.6
Cons. hit
58.3%
EV+
+1.0%
Rating
5.5/10
Exp. rounds
43.1
Line
10.5
Verdict
Risk
Plain model
58.3%
+1.9 →
Learned
60.2%
what past results change
learning 0.5x
learning 0.5x
Same-line track record · Over 8.5-12.5
All players · Headshots
60.5%76 picks
This player
100%2 picks
Green = above the 57.7% a 2-pick needs. Graded picks only, pushes left out.
raw 58% → −8% haircut · cap 68% · per-leg 1.732x · threshold ±2 (pref ±2.5)
- Edge +0.6 below ±2.0 minimum
Sharp checks · 6/6
Big enough sample · 14 recent series (need 8+)
L10 hit rate ≥ 60% · L10 70.0% at this line
L20 hit rate ≥ 55% · L20 57.1% at this line
Game script fits · 2-0 sweep 56% (Overs need rounds)
Standard line · Standard payout line
Bo3 series · Maps 1-2 guaranteed
Projection = 70% model (11.03) + 30% last-5 average
Evidence & risk
Last 10 series Maps 1-2: avg 11.3 headshots vs line 10.5 (7/10 over). KPR 0.77, HS 33%. Next: vs paiN, LAN.
Strongest: L10 average 11.3 against a 10.5 line
Biggest risk: Map veto not confirmed — Maps 1-2 estimated from recent map frequency
- Map veto not confirmed — Maps 1-2 estimated from recent map frequency
The read
Signal
ALIGNED
The call
PASS
Value
THIN
- • Model 11.08 vs line 10.5 → +0.58 (5.5%)
- • Form L5 80% · L10 70% over this line
- • Slight lean (40–45% / 65–70%) → no adjustment
- • Expected 43.1 rounds · 2-0 56% · OT 13.6%
Performance (last 28 maps)
Kills/Map
16.18
HS/Map
5.32
K/D
1.39
KPR
0.77
ADR
75.6
KAST
81.1%
HS%
32.9%
Multi-kill
19.2%
Kills projection
Map 1 (Mirage)5.2 · KPR 0.715 · 22.2r
Map 2 (Dust2)5.8 · KPR 0.854 · 20.9r
Required KPR to clear0.74
Base kills (Maps 1-2)33.72
Sweep / blowout / OT adj.-0.59%
Final projected kills33.52
× realistic HS% (32.9%)11.08
paiN Gaming gives up (81 series)-2.8% vs norm
Likely HS totals · Maps 1-2
Bars in colour cash the Over 10.5. Model: 58% before the safety haircut.
Lopsided maps27.1%
~9 HS · 36r33.3%
Normal37.3%
~11 HS · 43r54.5%
Close maps22%
~12 HS · 46r63.3%
Overtime13.6%
~13 HS · 52r77.4%
Match context
Oct 23, 09:00 PMLANCircuit X Curitiba 4
Win chance source: Polymarket 69.5%
Slight lean (40–45% / 65–70%) → no adjustment
Game scriptIdeal Over range — team 70% to win (40-70%), competitive maps expected.
M1 Mirage
22.2r
-7% KPR here
M2 Dust2
20.9r
+11% KPR here
Total
43.1r
2-0 sweep56%
Long Map 2 (24+ rounds)35.6%
Overtime13.6%
Blowout (13-5 or worse)27.1%
Likely maps from his team's recent map frequency: Mirage / Dust2
Recent Maps 1-2 form
10 series · line 10.5 (Over) · avg 11.3 · hit 7/10 · tap a bar
10.5
Nearby lines
| 8.5 Over | 65.7% | |
| 9.5 Over | 63.8% | |
| 10.5 Over | 58.3% | OFFERED |
| 11.5 Over | 47.3% | below BE |
| 12.5 Over | 39.8% | below BE |
Break-even per leg: 57.7%
Becomes a PASS at: 10.5
Line movement
first 10.5→offno change
- Pulled10.5Oct 23, 09:02 PM
- Back on board10.5 → 10.5Oct 23, 12:59 AM
- Pulled10.5Oct 23, 12:58 AM
- First seen10.5Oct 23, 12:58 AM
Map stats
Mirage
7 maps
Kills
15.6
KPR
0.69
HS%
30.3%
K/D
1.24
Cache
5 maps
Kills
18.2
KPR
0.73
HS%
37.4%
K/D
1.38
Dust2
5 maps
Kills
18.6
KPR
0.9
HS%
29%
K/D
1.55
Nuke
5 maps
Kills
15.4
KPR
0.79
HS%
37.7%
K/D
1.57
Inferno
3 maps
Kills
11.7
KPR
0.58
HS%
42.9%
K/D
1
Anubis
3 maps
Kills
16
KPR
0.81
HS%
22.9%
K/D
1.66
Recent Maps 1-2 results
| Date | Opp | Map 1 | Map 2 | Total | Team | Prop | Flags |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-10-22 | ShindeN | 3 Dust2 13-4 | 8 Mirage 16-14 | 11 | W | Over ✓ | OTBO |
| 2026-10-22 | BESTIA | 5 Dust2 7-13 | 1 Mirage 7-13 | 6 | L | Under ✗ | |
| 2026-10-22 | Turma do Pagode | 5 Anubis 13-10 | 8 Cache 16-14 | 13 | W | Over ✓ | OT |
| 2026-10-11 | DENDELE | 4 Mirage 8-13 | 9 Inferno 11-13 | 13 | L | Over ✓ | |
| 2026-10-11 | NRG | 6 Inferno 4-13 | 7 Dust2 13-7 | 13 | Split | Over ✓ | BO |
| 2026-10-10 | Without a Roof | 7 Dust2 13-4 | 9 Nuke 13-9 | 16 | W | Over ✓ | BO |
| 2026-09-27 | paiN | 1 Anubis 13-4 | 10 Cache 13-11 | 11 | W | Over ✓ | BO |
| 2026-09-26 | Bounty Hunters | 8 Mirage 13-9 | 2 Nuke 13-7 | 10 | W | Under ✗ | |
| 2026-09-24 | Galorys | 7 Cache 16-12 | 0 Inferno 13-6 | 7 | W | Under ✗ | OT |
| 2026-09-23 | Juventus | 5 Anubis 13-6 | 8 Nuke 13-3 | 13 | W | Over ✓ | BO |
| 2026-09-19 | BESTIA | 7 Mirage 10-13 | 6 Nuke 13-2 | 13 | Split | Over ✓ | BO |
| 2026-09-17 | Bounty Hunters | 3 Mirage 13-6 | 4 Cache 8-13 | 7 | Split | Under ✗ | |
| 2026-09-06 | Bounty Hunters | 2 Mirage 13-10 | 4 Nuke 11-13 | 6 | Split | Under ✗ | |
| 2026-09-05 | Peladona | 5 Dust2 13-16 | 5 Cache 13-8 | 10 | Split | Under ✗ | OT |
