KillsBetter playLean
Line
29.5
Pick
UNDER
Projection
26.92
Hit
53.9%
EV+
-6.6%
Edge
-2.6
L10
70%
HeadshotsRisk
Line
16.5
Pick
UNDER
Projection
15.54
Hit
51.7%
EV+
-10.5%
Edge
-1.0
L10
70%
Rifler
XeeDo
K27 vs Virtus.pro
RISK · UNDER 16.5
≈ L5 16.0 · L20 16.4Risk · Edge -1.0 far below ±2.0
Hit rates at 16.5 (Under)
L5
80%
4/5
L10
70%
7/10
L20
68%
13/19
H2H
50%
1/2
Volatility
Medium
±4.7
Previous meeting · vs Virtus.pro
1/2 hit · avg 18.5 headshots on Maps 1-2
2026-09-11 · Thunderpick World Championship 2026: Global Qualifier
Cache 10-13 · Dust2 8-13 · L
13
Under 16.5 ✓
2026-09-09 · Thunderpick World Championship 2026: Global Qualifier
Anubis 13-5 · Cache 14-16 · Split
24
Over 16.5 ✗
LAN vs online form
LAN
15.5
3/4 hit at 16.5
Online · this match
16.7
10/15 hit at 16.5
Avg headshots on Maps 1-2. The learned hit % now leans toward his form in this setting.
Late checks & sources
- Map veto (currently estimated)
- Confirm XeeDo is in the starting five
- Re-check line: PASS at 16.5
bo3.gg per-map player statsbo3.gg match scheduleWin chance: Polymarket 56.0%
Unverified / missing: Maps 1-2 not confirmed
prizepicks · Headshots · Maps 1-2Risk
What to watch · Stays under with 16 HS or fewer (under ~29 kills at 57.7% HS): below 0.641 KPR over ~45 rounds. Main danger: overtime (3.5%) or long close maps add rounds.
Side
Under
Projection
15.54
Raw edge
-1.0
Cons. hit
51.7%
EV+
-10.5%
Rating
2.9/10
Exp. rounds
44.6
Line
16.5
Verdict
Risk
Plain model
51.7%
0 →
Learned
51.7%
what past results change
learning 0x
learning 0x
Same-line track record · Under 14.5-18.5
All players · Headshots
43.5%416 picks
This player
—0 picks
Green = above the 57.7% a 2-pick needs. Graded picks only, pushes left out.
raw 58.1% → −8% haircut · cap 68% · per-leg 1.732x · threshold ±2 (pref ±2.5)
- Edge -1.0 below ±2.0 minimum
- EV+ not positive at current payout
- Game script fits: team 56% to win (not a 55-64% favourite)
- Under risk — team 56% to win; favourites win more rounds and their players usually get more kills.
Sharp checks · 4/5 active
Big enough sample · 19 recent series (need 8+)
L10 hit rate ≥ 60%off · L10 70.0% at this line
L20 hit rate ≥ 55%off · L20 68.4% at this line
Game script fits · team 56% to win (not a 55-64% favourite)
Standard line · Standard payout line
Bo3 series · Maps 1-2 guaranteed
L10 form (4/10 rule) · L10 7/10 at this line · projection 0.6 from his L10 avg
Projection = model only (the replay showed the last-5 blend didn't help)
Evidence & risk
Last 10 series Maps 1-2: avg 16.1 headshots vs line 16.5 (3/10 over). KPR 0.63, HS 58%. Next: vs Virtus.pro, LAN/Online unknown.
Strongest: L10 average 16.1 against a 16.5 line
Biggest risk: Map veto not confirmed — Maps 1-2 estimated from recent map frequency
- Map veto not confirmed — Maps 1-2 estimated from recent map frequency
The read
Signal
PARTIAL
The call
PASS
Value
NO VALUE
- • Model 15.54 vs line 16.5 → -0.96 (-5.8%)
- • Form L5 80% · L10 70% under this line
- • Close match (45–65%) → +1.0 rounds/map (learned from 23 real matches) · kill rate −3% KPR
- • Expected 44.6 rounds · 2-0 54.1% · OT 3.5%
Performance (last 38 maps)
Kills/Map
14.24
HS/Map
8.21
K/D
0.98
KPR
0.63
ADR
71.1
KAST
71.5%
HS%
57.7%
Multi-kill
16.2%
Kills projection
Map 1 (Cache)9.2 · KPR 0.702 · 22.9r
Map 2 (Nuke)6.3 · KPR 0.511 · 21.7r
Required KPR to clear0.641
Base kills (Maps 1-2)27.16
Sweep / blowout / OT adj.-0.87%
Final projected kills26.92
× realistic HS% (57.7%)15.54
Virtus.pro gives up (37 series)+5.8% vs norm
Likely HS totals · Maps 1-2
Bars in colour cash the Under 16.5. Model: 58.1% before the safety haircut.
Lopsided maps20.4%
~13 HS · 38r80.5%
Normal64.8%
~16 HS · 46r57%
Close maps11.3%
~17 HS · 48r51.3%
Overtime3.5%
~19 HS · 54r34.3%
Match context
Oct 23, 8:00 AM CTOnline
Win chance source: Polymarket 56.0%
Close match (45–65%) → +1.0 rounds/map (learned from 23 real matches) · kill rate −3% KPR
Heads upUnder risk — team 56% to win; favourites win more rounds and their players usually get more kills.
M1 Cache
22.9r
+16% KPR here
M2 Nuke
21.7r
-16% KPR here
Total
44.6r
2-0 sweep54.1%
Long Map 2 (24+ rounds)14.8%
Overtime3.5%
Blowout (13-5 or worse)20.4%
2-0 sweep is info only — Maps 1-2 are played either way.
Likely maps from his team's recent map frequency: Cache / Nuke
Recent Maps 1-2 form
10 series · line 16.5 (Under) · avg 16.1 · hit 7/10 · tap a bar
16.5
Nearby lines
| 14.5 Under | 35.7% | below BE |
| 15.5 Under | 42.7% | below BE |
| 16.5 Under | 51.7% | OFFERED |
| 17.5 Under | 56.2% | below BE |
| 18.5 Under | 61.1% |
Break-even per leg: 57.7%
Becomes a PASS at: 16.5
Line movement
first 16.5→offno change
- Pulled16.5Oct 23, 08:25 AM
- First seen16.5Oct 22, 09:20 PM
Map stats
Cache
11 maps
Kills
16.5
KPR
0.75
HS%
60.4%
K/D
1.03
Nuke
8 maps
Kills
10
KPR
0.49
HS%
52.5%
K/D
0.74
Ancient
7 maps
Kills
16
KPR
0.78
HS%
56.2%
K/D
1.17
Mirage
6 maps
Kills
16
KPR
0.78
HS%
57.3%
K/D
1.1
Anubis
3 maps
Kills
12.3
KPR
0.59
HS%
64.9%
K/D
1.09
Dust2
3 maps
Kills
11.3
KPR
0.52
HS%
52.9%
K/D
0.69
Recent Maps 1-2 results
| Date | Opp | Map 1 | Map 2 | Total | Team | Prop | Flags |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-10-09 | fnatic | 9 Ancient 13-11 | 2 Mirage 5-13 | 11 | Split | Under ✓ | BO |
| 2026-10-07 | Metizport | 5 Nuke 11-13 | 6 Mirage 13-8 | 11 | Split | Under ✓ | |
| 2026-09-27 | Eternal Fire | 7 Dust2 8-13 | 9 Mirage 8-13 | 16 | L | Under ✓ | |
| 2026-09-27 | SINNERS | 4 Nuke 6-13 | 10 Ancient 10-13 | 14 | L | Under ✓ | |
| 2026-09-26 | ex-RUBY | 17 Mirage 13-7 | 11 Cache 13-11 | 28 | W | Over ✗ | |
| 2026-09-26 | EYEBALLERS | 3 Nuke 13-7 | 12 Anubis 13-9 | 15 | W | Under ✓ | |
| 2026-09-25 | GamerLegion | 10 Cache 10-13 | 8 Nuke 10-13 | 18 | L | Over ✗ | |
| 2026-09-24 | CYBERSHOKE | 11 Ancient 13-6 | 8 Nuke 13-9 | 19 | W | Over ✗ | |
| 2026-09-11 | Virtus.pro | 9 Cache 10-13 | 4 Dust2 8-13 | 13 | L | Under ✓ | |
| 2026-09-10 | Nemiga | 5 Anubis 13-10 | 11 Mirage 9-13 | 16 | Split | Under ✓ | |
| 2026-09-10 | HEROIC | 8 Ancient 13-9 | 3 Cache 9-13 | 11 | Split | Under ✓ | |
| 2026-09-09 | WW | 7 Dust2 10-13 | 4 Cache 13-6 | 11 | Split | Under ✓ | |
| 2026-09-09 | Virtus.pro | 7 Anubis 13-5 | 17 Cache 14-16 | 24 | Split | Over ✗ | OTBO |
| 2026-09-08 | LP | 15 Ancient 13-5 | 10 Mirage 13-8 | 25 | W | Over ✗ | BO |
| 2026-09-03 | Eternal Fire | 7 Ancient 10-13 | 15 Cache 7-13 | 22 | L | Over ✗ | |
| 2026-09-03 | MIBR | 7 Cache 13-6 | 6 Nuke 13-6 | 13 | W | Under ✓ | |
| 2026-09-02 | GamerLegion | 12 Cache 4-13 | 4 Nuke 13-5 | 16 | Split | Under ✓ | BO |
| 2026-09-02 | magic | 11 Cache 9-13 | 3 Ancient 1-13 | 14 | L | Under ✓ | BO |
| 2026-08-14 | MIBR | 11 Cache 10-13 | 4 Nuke 5-13 | 15 | L | Under ✓ | BO |
